SPX Credit Spread Trader

Just a quick note, that a credit spread service I subscribed to, PM me if you want the name, did this exact same approach. For example if they reccommended a bull put 1180/1170, after the order was filled, the next day they sent a Xecute order to OX saying: close the spread at the market if the spx = 1180. This "trader" would always get out of the position. Now I know there are a lot of problems all of us intelligent people could come up with using this approach, but it at least protect's you (hopefully) in a major event when your not at your computer.

On another note, I feel strongly that you should be connected to your trading account 99% of the time, so I've used the cell phone web service from OX, and it's works great. You need to have multiple things in your back pocket just in case.

sd

Quote from momoneythansens:

Right, lost me on all of the above lol but I'm sure you know what you mean.



Nice idea. Similar to contingent short futures idea. Is it practical and cost effective though?

It's all a bit fiddly and at risk of whipsaw. Probably better to have a contingent to close the entire position and be done with it? Who knows? I'm sure some enterprising trader will backtest all of these possibilities.

Keep them rollling in.

Momoney.
 
Quote from DonnaV:

The monthly set is in data....(by year)is that what you are looking for?

Oh, geez, I found it. It was right in front of my nose on the CBOE site all the time. Duh. Thanks.
 
Murray:

Thanks for the post. I've been moving towards a strategy of not holding on to my positions to expiration and your spreadsheet has confirmed that I'm doing the right thing.
45 point difference in September of 2001 (5%) is unbelievable?? :eek:

Quote from Sailing:

Attached is a spreadsheet of all the historical SET prices and the corresponding SPX market close prices.

It's rather interesting and scary.

Murray
 
I wanted to see if there is a way to put more money to work on credit spreads without increasing risk outright. Well, there isn't, but the following might be an interesting step in the right direction and I'm requesting some feedback.

The Problem: I haven't been thrilled with the credit received for safe, far OTM spreads with 30 days to expiration. If I want to get a decent credit, I have to go closer to the money than I'd like to.

Now I've read/heard several times that it is "safer" to go out 2 to 3 months such that the spread can be farther OTM than a 30-days-to-expiration spread. Mathematically, this does not make sense but intuitively, it seems safer. Why?

So here's the thought. Instead of using 50% of capital (as margin) on a 30-day spread each month, put 35% on a 60-day spread. One month into the 60 days, put on another 60-day spread using another 35% of capital. You are always 70% invested and even though you have 60-day spreads, you have an expiration event every month. You can do the same thing with 90-day spreads using 25% of capital each month.
 
Good explanation.

I like the iron butterfly approach too depending on how sideways things are looking and then adjust or build from there into ICs or other positions as the market dictates. Otherwise, just take one side of the position if things are not so sideways.

Again, concur with your approach of taking quick profits. I usually try to look at annualised returns to compare if the quick turnaround betters the corresponding holding to expiration bet.

Btw, is your SPY strategy automated in anyway? And have you looked at SPY vs XSP? Just curious.

Momoney.

Quote from Extractor:

Rdemyan, I dont want to get off topic too much, but started out in options , trading covered calls on stocks I had accumulated in a good siize IRA. Selling calls worked well for me in the 90's, since I didnt have a love affair with any of the stocks I owned. As you know there is little downside protection for this selling strategy, so it was no longer profitable durring the decline of the bubble.Also selling options was not allowed by the old line brokerage houses. When discount brokerage houses became an entity , and rules changed, I started selling deep out of the money credit spreads on equities. Found this to be too volatile and got whipsawed around a great deal. Too much reaction to news events and anylysts. I then switched to selling credit spreads on SPX using some historical guidelines that I have mentioned. Also sold credit spreads and Iron condors on the XEO, using 50 wide between the sold options. I do 10 lots , but still didnt like risk to reward ratio, but I was profitable, although nothing to rave about. To reduce margin and increase chance of larger reward, I began entering with a butterfly, 10 points between the buys and sells, and hoped not to adjust if possible, but with close to a 3 to 1 risk to reward , I could easily convert to a condor , either up or down , with now a 1 to 1 risk to reward . Didnt have to tie up the huge amounts of margin and it works pretty well but alot of time having to take it off in expiration week, when it gets pretty dicey. I now trade a short term proprietary system on the SPY a couple of times a week for smaller gains , but at the end of the month , a nice tidy sum, and on most days I go home flat with no position too worry about. If I see good premium in the SPX and its trending up , I still do bull put spreads , or if it is trending down bear calls , but I am more likely to take my profit as quickly as I can, as theta allows. If I sold for .50 and it quickly loses premium to .25, I'm gone. I love strong trends. I keep it pretty simple, using some very simple TA, and news events to help monitor the markets. However my expectations are low. I am happy to supplement my income by $2000 a month. Not trying to hit the jack pot.
 
Agree, but alas for some people this is just not possible even with mobile access. Do we say to those people that they shouldn't be trading? It's a tricky one. I'll let you tell them :)

Don't want to start an OX vs ToS debate, but the thinkAnywhere platform for PDAs kicks ass!

See here:
http://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayPage.tos?webpage=wirelessPlatform

Add to that some basic analysis: http://www.optionstar.com/ss/osce.html

and some charting if you're into TA e.g.
http://www.fis-group.com/pocgen.htm

...and you're good to go!

Have submitted about a million or two feature/improvement requests to ToS so hopefully next version will be all singing and dancing.

Momoney.


Quote from skdoyle1:



On another note, I feel strongly that you should be connected to your trading account 99% of the time, so I've used the cell phone web service from OX, and it's works great. You need to have multiple things in your back pocket just in case.

sd
 
I think SET was the least of people's problems that particular month.

The problem with credit spreads/ICs is that they often really only reveal their best profit potential as expiration nears. This is due to theta blah blah blah...

So, the question becomes, when is the optimal time to take off/roll a position that is short options/gamma?

The answer is probably subjective but some of the contributing factors are:

1) Settlement procedure e.g. SET
2) Any large arbitrage activity.
3) Black swan protection.
4) Profit potential.

Why do I mention black swan? Well if you trade a European style exercise product then you have a chance of recovery after a Black swan event, but that recovery might take a little time. If it happens on the Thursday of opex week then you don't have as much time as if it happened on the Monday. So routinely taking off positions on the Monday would cover you for a lot of cases...but then often miss out on the best meat of the profit. This is all stating the obvious I think and yet another balance of risk/reward.

So what is the consensus on best day of week to take off/roll positions?

Momoney.

PS

After all of my SPX bashing, I'm going to give it one more chance (thats about 8 and counting) and see what there is going on today. The market makers better treat me nice or I'm not going to play anymore.


Quote from rdemyan:

Murray:

Thanks for the post. I've been moving towards a strategy of not holding on to my positions to expiration and your spreadsheet has confirmed that I'm doing the right thing.
45 point difference in September of 2001 (5%) is unbelievable?? :eek:
 
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