Quote from RichardRimes:
If the market falls now as it did back then the answer is a very big YES...go back and see how much it both gained and lost in one month also how big some of the sets were compared to close. I think it would be a BEAR to trade (pun intended
) FOTM IC's...but perhaps a good market to trade call credit spreads with some hedges in place.
Okay so you're saying that we'll get pummelled. Good to see a pessimistic but realistic answer. The sustained rise from Aug last year has many Call spreaders in trouble, and the rate/steepness which it rose is nothing compared to the speed/steepness in which the market fell during 2000-2002. Sure we can go further OTM than the call side, but im sure we'll still get killed.
Sure it'll be a good market to trade Call credit spreads but i was trying to see if we can survive or even make a living trading PUT spreads in that environment. I think if we can survive trading PUTs in that environment, then i'll be confident we can survive in virtually any environment.
Yes i have to get those month to month % moves that was posted a while back.
Having said that I don't see this market anywhere close to that market...remember we were coming off "bubble" years when things were insane...1000p/e's etc. This market is reasonably priced and baring a major recession I just think we may limp along.
You're probably right DV but im just trying to mentally prepare myself for the worst case scenario, just incase it does happen again. Whenever i look at that chart, it stops me writing spreads or just writing really small amount of contracts. I get really really scared.
Looking at the chart, what we're experiencing now is nothing compared to that 2 year period. If people are suffering now they'll definitely blow out their account in that bear market.