SPX- 75% chance of going to 634

Im just telling you the statistics as I see it.

When you look at the price, its constricting into a triangle and could break either way. Sure, its tradable, but this isnt the time to go long over the haul. Usually when price starts constricting with lower highs and lower lows, its a continuation pattern where the majority of the time it will continue in the direction it came (lower).

I've seen these things break both ways and so there is not much certainty. Personally, I would feel sick if it broke lower because that would add a few years to the recovery.

My gut says there has to be one more flush to the downside before there can be upside. Just my two cents.
 
Quote from W4rl0ck:

Where do you get 75%?
More...

Exactly.

The OP presents absolutely no statistical evidence that is "supportive" of why there is a 75% chance for a break to the downside to occur.
 
i saw a chart somewhere i think ny times showing that over the last 10+ years we have been above the historical average even throughout the 2002 bear market, by the law of mean reversion we should see a long period of under average sp500 p/e now.
 
Quote from Landis82:

Exactly.

The OP presents absolutely no statistical evidence that is "supportive" of why there is a 75% chance for a break to the downside to occur.
More...

technically doesn't vix at 75 mean there is a 75% chance of seeing a 75% move within the next year
 
Haha. The guy who allegedly used to trade with Tudor doesnt know who Edwards and Magee is. If you do know who these guys are then you would know where I grabbed that statistic.

Landis, its better to be thought of as an idiot rather then open your mouth and remove all doubt.

Quote from Landis82:

Exactly.

The OP presents absolutely no statistical evidence that is "supportive" of why there is a 75% chance for a break to the downside to occur.
More...
 
Quote from Port1385:

Haha. The guy who allegedly used to trade with Tudor doesnt know who Edwards and Magee is. If you do know who these guys are then you would know where I grabbed that statistic.
More...

Not only do I have the Edwards and Magee book, but I have something that you most likely do not, H.M. Gartley's "Profits in the Stock Market" which I bought on recommendation of my first boss, Trader Victor Sperandeo back in 1984.

http://www.wdgann.com/pages/store_detail.php?pid=53

For what it's worth, about 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. Given the current market environment ( and all of the government intervention ) I would hasten to say that the odds presented by Edwards & Magee might not be all that relevant at this juncture. Even Edwards & Magee warn that it is highly dangerous to try and "predict" the future direction of the breakout . . . because even though a continuation pattern is SUPPOSE to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top