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Spx 1400
- Thread starter nonlinear5
- Start date
please dont pollute our conversation hedgefundturder. I think we are going to all time highs again in the next year or 2 actually so stfu.
but not before another large wave of selling. which i am going to trade also. go away plz.
but not before another large wave of selling. which i am going to trade also. go away plz.
"The time to short the markets is when there is euphoria or when there is really bad news, but that isn't the case now which is why the markets will keep going higher."
Objectively trying to draw bullish conclusions while in a downtrend (trendlines and more specifically a vertically sloping 200 MA) is typically futile. I get the feeling a lot of people think we've seen the bottom, but the charts suggest there will be another move down. If I were subjective, then I guess I would still be long from the top and saying this is a temporary setup, but there is more damage in these charts than can be fixed in a one potential Inverted H&S Base. Although this move up has been strong, objectively it could collapse at anytime given the bases we are moving up from.
Ask yourself.....are the charts showing a BOUNCE or is the move coming from an objective / measurable bullish consolidation? In other words, you want to take shorts when charts are bouncing back to resistance from oversold conditions or after having made an extended move down or have broken down from an objective pattern and merely having a snap-back rally to resistance.....a mouth full but you get the point.
T
http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/
Objectively trying to draw bullish conclusions while in a downtrend (trendlines and more specifically a vertically sloping 200 MA) is typically futile. I get the feeling a lot of people think we've seen the bottom, but the charts suggest there will be another move down. If I were subjective, then I guess I would still be long from the top and saying this is a temporary setup, but there is more damage in these charts than can be fixed in a one potential Inverted H&S Base. Although this move up has been strong, objectively it could collapse at anytime given the bases we are moving up from.
Ask yourself.....are the charts showing a BOUNCE or is the move coming from an objective / measurable bullish consolidation? In other words, you want to take shorts when charts are bouncing back to resistance from oversold conditions or after having made an extended move down or have broken down from an objective pattern and merely having a snap-back rally to resistance.....a mouth full but you get the point.
T
http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/
Quote from nonlinear5:
I figured that one of the "market ways" is to move in such a manner as to transfer the maximum amount of money from the accounts of one group of traders to the accounts of the other group of traders. Let's see if we can apply this principle to the current market. It looks like a great many trend-following traders are anxiously waiting for the highly anticipated SPX break above 1400, so that they can jump on the long side of the "clear uptrend". What's the best way to take their money? I'd say it would be to do just that: push SPX through 1400, let the "trenders", "MACDers", "channelers", and the "breakers" go long, and then force them out by a sharp sell off down to, say, SPX 1330. From there, when everyone on Earth is convinced that it's the end of the world, SPX will explode up to new all time highs by the end of the year.
So, if I were Mr. Market, my evil plan would be:
1. Within the next few days, break through SPX 1400.
2. Let the "longers" joing the party. That would lift SPX to about 1450 in the course of the next few days after the break above 1400.
3. Sell off to 1330 by end of May.
4. A big time rally to above all time highs by year end.
The next two weeks will put your theory to the test. The time is now. AAII investment survey shows extreme optimism. $SPX is now above 1400 and basing. My idea is that we get one last huge upside move this week, get everyone saying the bull market is back, then bam another shoe drops and we see a sell off into June/July.
Quote from BlackBison:
that is why i shorted at 1423 today. i will take a stop out here if we restest 1425 on monday. and look to reenter later at 1440-1450. there is just too great a chance of sudden downmoves out of nowhere imo. the small stop out seems worth it.
ideally you are right. we may have a few days of range trading around 1400-1420. then a final hard false break out to 1450 ish before massive seeling.
well non linear it is playing out as you expected so far. i exited my short at 1428 for a 5 point loss on 2 contracts. as i said i was willing to take this stop out as i was not certain we would break to 1450 before the next downleg.
hopefully today is a big parabolic up day and if we close at 1450ish i will be shorting at close.
stop will be 1455. target will be 1300-1320. what about you non linear?
Quote from nonlinear5:
I figured that one of the "market ways" is to move in such a manner as to transfer the maximum amount of money from the accounts of one group of traders to the accounts of the other group of traders. Let's see if we can apply this principle to the current market. It looks like a great many trend-following traders are anxiously waiting for the highly anticipated SPX break above 1400, so that they can jump on the long side of the "clear uptrend". What's the best way to take their money? I'd say it would be to do just that: push SPX through 1400, let the "trenders", "MACDers", "channelers", and the "breakers" go long, and then force them out by a sharp sell off down to, say, SPX 1330. From there, when everyone on Earth is convinced that it's the end of the world, SPX will explode up to new all time highs by the end of the year.
So, if I were Mr. Market, my evil plan would be:
1. Within the next few days, break through SPX 1400.
2. Let the "longers" joing the party. That would lift SPX to about 1450 in the course of the next few days after the break above 1400.
3. Sell off to 1330 by end of May.
4. A big time rally to above all time highs by year end.
Steps 1 and 2 are completed. Step 3 is in progress.