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Quote from stock_trad3r:

Your argument is flawed and your thought process is muddled. I'm not going to bother refuting your points because it doesn't matter. I won't change your mind and you won't change mine. We'll just have to see what the market does to know who is right.
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My argument is not flawed one bit. You either do not understand how to analyze fundamentals or refuse to acknowledge the true picture by living in your fantasy world. I don't set out to be "right", which is precisely why I manage my risk. I set out to make educated decisions based on current information to best align myself for the most likely outcome. If and when the market turns around, it will be because of improving fundamentals, not because you were "right". Because frankly, right now there is very little that is "good" with the economy. Now, if in 3 months, we are consistently seeing job growth and decent economic growth, then perhaps the economy will be primed for a turn around. But don't sit there and act like you knew all along that is a for sure event, because again, fundamentally, the economy is in rough shape right now at this point.

btw...how long have you been in the market trading/investing? What is your education on finance? What is your experience? You are constantly trumpeting but I never see any substance. If you are as skilled as you claim to be, put more meat into your analysis and let us know your experience.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

The fundamentals aren't that bad, actually. The markets can log 7-15 % YTD returns with a low interest, slow growth environemnt thanks to a cheap dollar, strong consumer spending, resonable valuations, defense spending, and strong exports.

The time to short the markets is when there is euphoria or when there is really bad news, but that isn't the case now which is why the markets will keep going higher.
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The Market does not cares about bad news anymore.Its actually punishing doom and gloom club for its ever present pessimism.

Todays terrible housing data on new homes vanished like summer fog.
 
Quote from tradestrong:

Are you kidding me? The fundamentals are bad right now. Inflation is high, the consumer is maxed out in terms of being able to spend, thousands of wall st./finance jobs are disappearing, there is no lending, the money supply is contracting, there is no new tech/productivity "booms" to drive a new bull.

Face it, the fundamentals are pretty horrid right now. Seriously, just let the market run its course and weed out the weak companies. If the market were to grow 15% over the next year, that would be nothing more than an inflated bubble waiting to burst. It's actually better for a long drawn out base with very little growth. Right now, the last thing the economy really needs is a volatile market to scare investors. A market growing 15% is exactly the kind of volatility that will just prolong the time that it will take before the next slow climb of a bull will start.

Now, I like volatility as much as the next trader, but don't confuse 15% growth in the market over a year as a sign that the economy is doing well. 15% growth is an anomaly. If you are an investor (as I take it from your posts that you are), you want slow growth...trust me.
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The Fundamentals are not that bad. Economic contraction was met head on by massive rate cuts. In fat too many rate cuts, since it saturated and flooded our economic life and screwed our dollar. The Feds should stop cutting rates now, enough already for this small hiccup. There is so much money floating around it will take almost a year to absorb all of this.

The market is doing fine, it needs to punish shorts and kill them. These rats will be killed by the plague they spread.
 
You can see from this long term 10 year chart of the S&P500, once the 40 week moving average bearishly crosses under the 80 week moving average, the 40wma becomes overhead resistance and it usually continues as overhead resistance for 1 to 2 years.
You can look back for a couple of decades and find this to be reasonably accurate.
 

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Quote from nonlinear5:

So, if I were Mr. Market, my evil plan would be:

1. Within the next few days, break through SPX 1400.
2. Let the "longers" joing the party. That would lift SPX to about 1450 in the course of the next few days after the break above 1400.
3. Sell off to 1330 by end of May.
4. A big time rally to above all time highs by year end.
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Step #1 completed, right on schedule.
 
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

The Fundamentals are not that bad. Economic contraction was met head on by massive rate cuts. In fat too many rate cuts, since it saturated and flooded our economic life and screwed our dollar. The Feds should stop cutting rates now, enough already for this small hiccup. There is so much money floating around it will take almost a year to absorb all of this.

The market is doing fine, it needs to punish shorts and kill them. These rats will be killed by the plague they spread.
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We'll probably get one or two more cuts.
 
If everything is so peachy out there right now stock, why should the fed continue to cut? I think they may be a tad bit more worried about the inflation they are creating than maybe you or your evil twin....And to answer the question about too many "bearish" people on here...This is a site for traders, nobody I know classifies themselves as "bulls" or "bears". I think you 2 think that anyone who doesn't agree with your uber bullish ( I don't quote it here, because you 2 are bullish....You don't sell anything, ever, and you have no clue how to trade in a down mkt) all day every day. If thats the way you want to maximize your potential to make money who cares? The other one (not you stock, as much anyway) who hopes that shorts burn in hell? Well lets just say, the market has its own way with dealing with one way investors..If he even has a real money account. Ok you 2 can go back to posting about how much "money" you are making.
 
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