Spreads versus Butterfly

poopy said:
forget it.
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Wait...did D just give a price projection? :)

Actually my trade was pretty simple...price typically retraces at least .38, and the MACD confirms so the timing put it @ about 17 on Aug23...hopefully it doesn't blow through the other side...but between 16.50-17.50 I profit $300-$800. The trade only cost me $200 so the return on risk is good.

btw the price action also confirms it...if you watch enough charts you will see that on the open they sucked in a lot of traders and stopped them out before the move up. The day will probably finish with a doji (dragonfly) or a hammer.

upload_2024-8-20_8-7-43.png
 
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poopy said:
Fly is trading at a two cent debit.
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That's what happens when price goes up on a put fly...premium goes down. :) I am in the butter zone right now with my 16/17/18...if it holds this price range I go from $134 to $680 pnl.


Wait...according to my sheet the 14/16/16.5 was cheaper yesterday than today? This would mean price is skewing as there is an expectation that the price is going to pull back...it's anticipating a trend reversal! Options are fun! :)


Yesterday

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Today

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wxytrader said:
That's what happens when price goes up on a put fly...premium goes down. :) I am in the butter zone right now with my 16/17/18...if it holds this price range I go from $134 to $680 pnl.


Wait...according to my sheet the 14/16/16.5 was cheaper yesterday than today? This would mean price is skewing as there is an expectation that the price is going to pull back...it's anticipating a trend reversal! Options are fun! :)


Yesterday

View attachment 347113

Today

View attachment 347112
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It's up 15 cents here (on marks). Things would go easier if you were at least borderline functional. Entered at a 12 cent credit.
 
poopy said:
It's up 15 cents here (on marks). Things would go easier if you were at least borderline functional. Entered at a 12 cent credit.
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Nice! But I don't think its going to go your way by exp...might have to roll it out.
 
poopy said:
It's going to lose more than it's 3 cent debit?
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What are the prices of each leg? How did you get .15?? You broke my pnl chart I think because its showing an arb or something where if price continues up your min loss is a $152 gain. However if it drops to 14 you lose $1348.
 
wxytrader said:
What are the prices of each leg? How did you get .15?? You broke my pnl chart I think because its showing an arb or something where if price continues up your min loss is a $152 gain. However if it drops to 14 you lose $1348.
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lol.
 
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