A good price action-based model will indeed pick up on seasonal tendencies and changes in fundamental drivers. You will be later to the party than the Commercials - but that's OK, because the object is to make money and not get your ass run over. The Commercials will do the heavy lifting in terms of changing or extending trend patterns - and your job as an individual speculator is to go with them. At least that's my take on things and that's what I teach my own clients. For example, I know virtually nothing about Sugar and Coffee fundamentals - but they have been very good spread trades for us the past few years. Furthermore, there are many HF's and private equity groups that trade these electronic markets based strictly from price action. I have one client who is particularly good at trading Live Hogs versus Corn and he came to me as a Forex scalper of all things.