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Here's a Euribor butterfly that sets up very well on the long side for a good swing trade. Initial overnight margin should be between $500-$800 for a 1-2-1. The scan margins have really been changing around as of late.

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Here's a Wheat Condor that was taken from the long side; hit the profit target, and then immediately failed off.

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bone said:
Here's a Wheat Condor that was taken from the long side; hit the profit target, and then immediately failed off.

32zj3hu.jpg
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Taken by whom? Do you have any proof that you had taken this trade? You cannot state this as fact without proof. It's a violation of "publishing" rules for the NFA. Either you have to admit it's simulated or you must provide docs.
 
bone said:
I think you could certainly make the case that from a relative value standpoint, TSLA is indeed weakening against very high ( > 96 % ) positive statistical 2-year on-the-run correlators like Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF and the Rydex S&P Equal Weight Technology ETF.
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I believe the relationship between TSLA and (RYT or VOT) is largely spurious. There's nothing about TSLA that you would expect to influence those two ETF's so I wouldn't place much emphasis on the correlation (which is high over two years and falls off over the previous year). Indeed, TSLA is showing relative weakness over recent months and you can make observations about relative strength or weakness without high correlation.

bone said:
The tricky part with respect to constructing spread combinations with TSLA and RYT or VOT at this point in time is my personal discomfort regarding the wide disparity between notional values and 20/40/60 day OTR volatility in terms of devising a workable hedge ratio.
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As an emerging company with a disruptive business model, the price movement and risk of TSLA is idiosyncratic. The purpose of the hedge ratio is to neutralize the systemic risk and isolate the specific (company) risk you are modeling and predicting. In this case, I believe TSLA's price movement is all specific risk and marches to the tune of its own drummer. IMHO, spreading TSLA against a broad or sector index only muddles the trade into something undefined. But this is a useful example of the difficulty of devising an effective hedge ratio when your relative volatilities measured over various lookback periods are widely disparate. That's a challenge confronted by spread traders, God bless us all.
 
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bone said:
Here's a Euribor butterfly that sets up very well on the long side for a good swing trade. Initial overnight margin should be between $500-$800 for a 1-2-1. The scan margins have really been changing around as of late.
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SCAN margins? The P is nowhere near the C key. It's SPAN, Man.
 
Here is the link for the daily Margin Scanning ( the term used by ICE Clear Europe ):

https://www.theice.com/clear-europe/risk-management#margin-liffe

Here is the link to the exchange-published procedure for using the information listed in the designated columns within the daily Margin Scan files in order to calculate the SPAN Margin parameters assigned by ICE Clear:

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/n...arameters_for_Liffe_Layout_Guide_20131022.pdf

Likewise, here is the link for the daily Outrights/Vol Scans for Performance Bonds | Margins - CME Group:
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/margins/#e=all&a=all&p=all

These daily price SCAN ranges are then incorporated into the exchange's procedures to calculate a portfolio or spread combination SPAN margin parameter:

http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-management/#commodity_evaluations

The daily SCAN ranges for performance bond margins are what changes the SPAN margin. :p
 
bone said:
Here is the link for the daily Margin Scanning ( the term used by ICE Clear Europe ):

https://www.theice.com/clear-europe/risk-management#margin-liffe

Here is the link to the exchange-published procedure for using the information listed in the designated columns within the daily Margin Scan files in order to calculate the SPAN Margin parameters assigned by ICE Clear:

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/n...arameters_for_Liffe_Layout_Guide_20131022.pdf

Likewise, here is the link for the daily Outrights/Vol Scans for Performance Bonds | Margins - CME Group:
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/margins/#e=all&a=all&p=all

These daily price SCAN ranges are then incorporated into the exchange's procedures to calculate a portfolio or spread combination SPAN margin parameter:

http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-management/#commodity_evaluations

The daily SCAN ranges for performance bond margins are what changes the SPAN margin. :p
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"Scan margins" don't exist. That took you what, 15 minutes, to look further the fool? You're now referring to a stress-test to cover your queef. The MVS hasn't changed for any of the products you've mentioned. Certainly not on Euribor switches. Basically, you're full of s***.

http://wwwstc.cmegroup.com/trading/...aringCode=71&sortField=volScanMaintenanceRate
 
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All margins are derived directly from daily SCANS - not my words, it's the same for every exchange. When vol changes, margins change accordingly. And the daily SCAN results likewise are the only variable that changes the SPAN performance bond / margins for portfolios and spread combinations.

Exact words from CME: "Outrights/Vol Scans for Performance Bonds | Margins - CME Group"

http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/margins/#e=all&a=all&p=all

Go grind your axe somewhere else. Better yet, post some trade ideas or constructive positive commentary yourself for a change of pace.
 
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