Spread Trading

[tommo]

Quick and Dirty: take on-the-run 30 day trading range for each leg and then monetize each leg's value. For example, take the last 30 days of trading range for Silver, monetize it, do the same for Gold, then calculate your hedge ratio for Gold versus Silver accordingly.

You have to be very careful about inter market spreads - if the individual components are not highly correlated (>95% close-on-close) you will get smoked on cointegration. Even then - the disparate order flows between them can be a challenge. A great example of this is Gold vs. Franc where they trade in different sectors.

Intra market spreads (like Jun CL vs Sept CL vs Dec CL butterfly) none of this is a problem.

Many thanks Bone. But wouldn’t the hedge ratio and chart ratio be different?

The hedge ratio would be the monetised volatility of spread 1 / spread 2

but for the chart to make sense would there need to be a multiplier so they were equally weighted on the chart?

In the above example even though they both have an average monetary volatility of of about $1000 a day if I just have the chart as 1:1 the leg that only has a price of 0.68 barely moves the chart.

hope that makes sense. I have a lot of experience with intramarket spreads such as crude or Eurodollar etc. But wanted to branch out into some more exotic things.

 

[bone]

It can vary depending upon your charting platform.

Many thanks Bone. But wouldn’t the hedge ratio and chart ratio be different?

The hedge ratio would be the monetised volatility of spread 1 / spread 2

but for the chart to make sense would there need to be a multiplier so they were equally weighted on the chart?

In the above example even though they both have an average monetary volatility of of about $1000 a day if I just have the chart as 1:1 the leg that only has a price of 0.68 barely moves the chart.

hope that makes sense. I have a lot of experience with intramarket spreads such as crude or Eurodollar etc. But wanted to branch out into some more exotic things.

 

[.sigma]

Can someone explain how to price spreads?

for example how do I see the spreads price between the NOB SPREAD. (Notes Over Bonds)

How does one do this on thinkorswim?

 

[bone]

Contact TOS tech support, because there are quite literally thousands of exchange spreads. They're a prominent feature for TT and CQG. If there's monster HF and Prop Firm traders or big Commercials - they are trading spreads.

Can someone explain how to price spreads?

for example how do I see the spreads price between the NOB SPREAD. (Notes Over Bonds)

How does one do this on thinkorswim?

 

[Real Money]

Can someone explain how to price spreads?

for example how do I see the spreads price between the NOB SPREAD. (Notes Over Bonds)

How does one do this on thinkorswim?

You have to use the contract multipliers. This link has all the current ratios for rate futures spreads.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/intercommodity-spread.html

Using these ratios

you get the cash value of the spread in ThinkorSwim by using these formulas

BOB >>> 3000*/ZB-2000*/UB
NOB >>> 5000*/ZN-2000*/ZB

A tick is 1/32 of a point, and each tick is worth $31.25, so a point is worth 32*31.25 = $1000, which makes the contract (UB, ZB, ZN, etc.) worth 1000 times the quote on GLOBEX.

 

[bone]

It's a bit more complicated than that for the ICS exchange market - there's a very unique idiosyncrasy that is unique to the CBoT interest rate spread: The spread is quoted as that day's net change from the previous trading session's settlement. AFAIK this is unique to the CBoT inter market interest rate spread.

But for long term charting; yes, you can use a ratio'ed charting formula.

You have to use the contract multipliers. This link has all the current ratios for rate futures spreads.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/intercommodity-spread.html

Using these ratios

you get the cash value of the spread in ThinkorSwim by using these formulas

BOB >>> 3000*/ZB-2000*/UB
NOB >>> 5000*/ZN-2000*/ZB

A tick is 1/32 of a point, and each tick is worth $31.25, so a point is worth 32*31.25 = $1000, which makes the contract (UB, ZB, ZN, etc.) worth 1000 times the quote on GLOBEX.

 

[Real Money]

ICS exchange market...

Hi @bone , I have found out through looking into things, that this spread (Bonds-over-Bonds) is really moving markets, especially the indexes (moving each other).

It seems like a very large amount of speculation is occurring in this particular spread. The affects are showing up in other places I'm watching, like the equity index basis (a playground for execution algo's handling orders from the big boys).

Also, my other question I asked you about how the book thins out and then trades inside a two tick spread (Ultra bonds) seems to have something to do with the ICS BoB spread orders....interesting (maybe they are getting priority fills?).

Question: Just how much size are these guys doing in the BoB spread? Is the Chicago prop scene working here? Maybe there are some big options players trading the back of the curve?

I use the action in the index basis (execution algos) to get the edge on outright ultra bonds, and it works like a dream.

I'm in the final stages of figuring this trade out, and the S&P options pit and their hedging orders they send to execution desks seem to be the final word on who wins and loses at and around the 9:30AM open in NY with respect to speculative rate futures positioning.

This move, is the real action as far as I'm concerned for trading intraday.

 

[bone]

They do stupid, ridiculous size in the spreads. On exchange and off. Note futures versus Bond futures, Eurodollars and STIRS, Swaps versus futures, etc.. Thousands at a whack. The notoriously big traders are in the basis spreads - cash versus futures. All exchange spreads are treated as priority firm orders by the exchange and as such they are filled internally by the exchange. CME, ICE, Eurex, Euronext all do this. If you are running automation (like an auto spreader or ORC), the orders are tagged as conditional by the exchange and they are last priority in the order queue.

It is a spreaders world. And the majority of scalpers have no clue whatsoever.

Hi @bone , I have found out through looking into things, that this spread (Bonds-over-Bonds) is really moving markets, especially the indexes (moving each other).

It seems like a very large amount of speculation is occurring in this particular spread. The affects are showing up in other places I'm watching, like the equity index basis (a playground for execution algo's handling orders from the big boys).

Also, my other question I asked you about how the book thins out and then trades inside a two tick spread (Ultra bonds) seems to have something to do with the ICS BoB spread orders....interesting (maybe they are getting priority fills?).

Question: Just how much size are these guys doing in the BoB spread? Is the Chicago prop scene working here? Maybe there are some big options players trading the back of the curve?

I use the action in the index basis (execution algos) to get the edge on outright ultra bonds, and it works like a dream.

I'm in the final stages of figuring this trade out, and the S&P options pit (and their hedging orders they send to execution desks) seems to be the final word on who wins and loses at and around the 9:30AM open in NY with respect to speculative rate futures positioning.

This move, is the real action as far as I'm concerned for trading intraday.

 

[Real Money]

It is a spreaders world. And the majority of scalpers have no clue whatsoever.

This follows from basic realities of risk and statistics. Size has to spread risk.

A lot of people love the idea of spreading options, but then dismiss that same idea when it comes to futures. This seems like a failure to understand the basics of risk management.

Sure you can make a killing, and fast, on outright index instruments, but if you are trying to figure out what will happen in the next few minutes or the next couple hours, then you better know what a spread is, what market makers do, and which markets are influential.

What amazes me is that this trade (rate differentials) gets so insanely levered, that as soon as the market moves AT ALL, the losers are forced to cover or close out and the whole rates complex swings wildly.

This is not a small market we are talking about.

 

[bone]

Spreads are so cheap to margin that quite a few traders hold them longer term. And why not?

This follows from basic realities of risk and statistics. Size has to spread risk.

A lot of people love the idea of spreading options, but then dismiss that same idea when it comes to futures. This seems like a failure to understand the basics of risk management.

Sure you can make a killing, and fast, on outright index instruments, but if you are trying to figure out what will happen in the next few minutes or the next couple hours, then you better know what a spread is, what market makers do, and which markets are influential.

What amazes me is that this trade (rate differentials) gets so insanely levered, that as soon as the market moves AT ALL, the losers are forced to cover or close out and the whole rates complex swings wildly.

This is not a small market we are talking about.