Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500

based on what?

the price action is all one-sided, even the price action down is the same algo thats taking it up. Price stalls, because noone is selling it, (no short fuel), unless the MM's want to be net long with inventory.

the market makers ala the FED/FOMC is using the markets own fuel against it, they are goosing the market to sell low and buy high. If they have killed most everyone, to the point noone is selling it, than price stalls. And thats what we have now.

there is so much disgust with market, the people I have spoken to are basically not playing the game. They took their chips out. The fundamental backdrop is so negative, it makes most everyone want to puke when thinking about going long at these valuations. The FED/FOMC fucked up, they should have let the market go through its cycle of destruction and rebirth as past cycles. Instead they are micromanaging almost all the markets to preserve these artificial prices. Its like the movie 'the big short', when the market refuses to price the derivatives appropriately because, pricing them realistically would blow them out.

the only time they will let them be priced based on market forces, is when its to their advantage to do so. If agencies exist to protect the security of this country, wouldn't you think they have a financial agency that does the same thing but in a financial sense?
 
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based on what?
Based on your nick, I can see where your market sentiment is.

It is based on my myself and my brothers analysis. I have nothing invested in the number, it happens or it doesn't. Either way I will trade what I see. And right now what I see is the bears getting their nuts cut off with a dull rusty knife.

The monthly and weekly charts are what has been in play in the indexes since the start of this bull run. Nothing has really changed yet.
 
Based on your nick, I can see where your market sentiment is.

It is based on my myself and my brothers analysis. I have nothing invested in the number, it happens or it doesn't. Either way I will trade what I see. And right now what I see is the bears getting their nuts cut off with a dull rusty knife.

The monthly and weekly charts are what has been in play in the indexes since the start of this bull run. Nothing has really changed yet.

In all fairness to recession2016, he has made calls at market lows AND highs since I've seen him posting on here...Overall, I'd say he's made good calls...That being said, I view these major predictions higher as the same extreme sentiment that we saw when this thing was cascading lower back in Jan-Feb...Truth be told, it is always easier to speak up when the wind is at your back..Had you made these predictions in the first-second week of February, that would have taken guts and been truly contrarian.

In that spirit, I'll go with 175 by mid-June 2016 on SPY.
 
That being said, I view these major predictions higher as the same extreme sentiment that we saw when this thing was cascading lower back in Jan-Feb...Truth be told, it is always easier to speak up when the wind is at your back..Had you made these predictions in the first-second week of February, that would have taken guts and been truly contrarian.

In that spirit, I'll go with 175 by mid-June 2016 on SPY.

I don't make a habit of posting or making calls. Very little to be gained doing either:)

I mostly interact with other traders I know via Skype and a private message board. ET is fun to pick through for the occasional nuggets.

Trading is a lot like science or trouble shooting complex computer issues. Create a hypothesis, test it, discard what doesn't work and then re-evaluate. Rinse and repeat.
 
I don't make a habit of posting or making calls. Very little to be gained doing either:)

I mostly interact with other traders I know via Skype and a private message board. ET is fun to pick through for the occasional nuggets.

Trading is a lot like science or trouble shooting complex computer issues. Create a hypothesis, test it, discard what doesn't work and then re-evaluate. Rinse and repeat.

Good points...I do have to say that one of my biggest concerns at the lows was that oil was trading under $30 and the S&P was still in the 1800-1900 range...Of course, the implication was that any bid in the oil market and the S&P would skyrocket (just as it has happened)...

In any event, I also agree with Spectre's analysis and at the end of the day, even if I were 95% sure the S&P were heading to 2450 in the next six months I'd jump off the train well before then...Never have the patience for longer term holds.:)
 
4 hr fibs.
4hrfib.png
 
In any event, I also agree with Spectre's analysis and at the end of the day, even if I were 95% sure the S&P were heading to 2450 in the next six months I'd jump off the train well before then...Never have the patience for longer term holds.:)

Didn't say I was going to try to get the exact high :) That is a fools game.

I have noticed two things in this rally. The big money in options has been rotating sectors quite a bit. That helps keeping the indexes moving higher.

The other thing is that people have been buying very unsexy dividend paying stocks. That is real buying. They pay that dividend to get the buy and hold crowd, not the active traders.
 
It is all relative to how much you are trying to make, how much you can afford to risk, and how long you are willing to wait.

Personally, I am a short term trader, as in daytrades, but I do keep an eye on monthly and daily moves.

It might not happen in the next week, but I think we are going to see a nice little pullback shortly, based on monthly and daily charts in relation to previous price moves.

The main advantage of daytrading is that it does not really matter what way the market moves, once you know how to play the odds and maximise opportunities when they manifest.

Trading is a mugs game, but only if you are a mug!

J_S
 
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