Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500

Stocks have rallied hard over the past week and over the past week net shares were created. Since 2012, that has led to subnormal performance over the next week. Still, as the chart above shows, over the course of the recent market bounce from February lows, net shares were actually redeemed. Investors have not believed in this rally and, if history holds, that's one indication that the rise could continue.

SharesOutstanding030316.jpg
 
romik said:
Nothing to add, I see continuation of upside cycle, retrace it may, probably to 10 daily SMA followed by further upside. Not ready to re-initiate short position, remain long for now.
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strongly disagree

you couldn't take profits at the lows around 1800, and now you can't take shorts at the highs around 2000

your trade entries/exits make no sense....you could've taken a short position at 2007, 28 points away from your target at 2035, and now you're likely going to miss out just like you did earlier
 
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recession2016 said:
strongly disagree

you couldn't take profits at the lows around 1800, and now you can't take shorts at the highs around 2000

your trade entries/exits make no sense....you could've taken a short position at 2007, 28 points away from your target at 2035, and now you're likely going to miss out just like you did earlier
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Hardly surprising, since your intention is to exploit smaller cycles, hence there will be times when you will be giving a lot of profits back, just like what happened in CL on the way down, how many times you got stopped out trying to call bottom? ;)
 
Next week I see continuation of the daily uptrend, which remains undeniably a strong one. As far as targets I believe Naz to be the driving force as there is an open gap as can be seen on the attached chart, basically we are likely heading towards 5k zone. I remain long.

Screenshot_2016_03_12_02_32_25_2.jpg
 
So much for supposed bear market, it amazes me how one week can take us from abyss to bliss (this was back in late FEB) Let's try to remember we are playing the biggest casino in the world
 
romik said:
Basically, giving profits back is common to all practices.
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Especially common in futures trading, make 20k one month give back 18K the next, sounds improbable after such good gains but remains a reality for some/most. :banghead:
Hope I'm wrong
 
See this is another sign of a likely reversal - bears I know here are throwing in the towel thinking NQ is back to 5k. Look guys, we just need that last hurrah and we're not through with it yet. In all truth you might not even get that total blow off top (just look back in mid-2015 where it was rangeville) - but to just assume it's situation normal and we're headed back to ATH is giving up on the plan too early IMO. Wait until the next week of drama plays out and then go from there. The fundamentals are hideous (I know, I know).
 
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