Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500

Will post a chart this weekend, but I've noticed that the SPX has essentially rallied an identical number of points in the same amount of time as last Oct's mega-rally...It has a slightly different structure (that Fri Oct 2 rally was enormous), yet we are here...roughly 150 SPX points in about 14 TD's.
 
der_kommissar said:
Will post a chart this weekend, but I've noticed that the SPX has essentially rallied an identical number of points in the same amount of time as last Oct's mega-rally...It has a slightly different structure (that Fri Oct 2 rally was enormous), yet we are here...roughly 150 SPX points in about 14 TD's.
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Not all twins are identical, neither are patterns :)
 
So far on weekly we have high, lower high and now there will be attempts to push stocks higher, but if get 3 lower tops, then significant downside will be very likely.
 
Here's where I'm coming from:

es_20160226.png


Whenever I see those inverted cup and handle like formations where the most recent low is a lower low than the prior one (in this case, around the 9/30 super rally):
  • I look for the 61.8% retrace (from that latest low to the last high) for a potential reversal point. That's what the bold red line is and the purplish box is an area of interest.
  • Volume profile low volume nodes indicating an area where price doesn't like to be.
  • Confluences here with fib fans from ATH to most recent low lining up here.
  • A rounded top being formed generally fitting into the overall picture.
  • Even if this were some longer term bull flag/falling wedge, we're only about half way through it and I doubt we'd see it play out before some other crisis/sentiment shift happened.
  • If we actually make it to 2k, people are going to be sufficiently bulled up and buy and holders will start seeing $ signs.
  • If we make it past 2k, with even more FOMO bullishness by then, that 2040 area looks like a potential exhaustion and reversal area, in addition to the presence of the last significant support where we sat in that god awful range for nearly 6 months.
I expect to see significant supply between 1990-2040 with significant offloading of risk onto the new believers. It then peters out, rug gets pulled, and yet another cycle of Markets In Turmoil specials, CB jawboning, and who knows what else... On the other hand if we come ripping out of this and pull some 2300+ stuff, then I don't know what to say. I'd think we'd need yet another major low or two to even get to that point though. IMO these markets kinda suck now because it's hard to actually get any real bearish follow through at significant support levels without suffering the risk of constant V bounces, CB fuckery, and other games.
 
i960 said:
Here's where I'm coming from:

View attachment 162362

Whenever I see those inverted cup and handle like formations where the most recent low is a lower low than the prior one (in this case, around the 9/30 super rally):
  • I look for the 61.8% retrace (from that latest low to the last high) for a potential reversal point. That's what the bold red line is and the purplish box is an area of interest.
  • Volume profile low volume nodes indicating an area where price doesn't like to be.
  • Confluences here with fib fans from ATH to most recent low lining up here.
  • A rounded top being formed generally fitting into the overall picture.
  • Even if this were some longer term bull flag/falling wedge, we're only about half way through it and I doubt we'd see it play out before some other crisis/sentiment shift happened.
  • If we actually make it to 2k, people are going to be sufficiently bulled up and buy and holders will start seeing $ signs.
  • If we make it past 2k, with even more FOMO bullishness by then, that 2040 area looks like a potential exhaustion and reversal area, in addition to the presence of the last significant support where we sat in that god awful range for nearly 6 months.
I expect to see significant supply between 1990-2040 with significant offloading of risk onto the new believers. It then peters out, rug gets pulled, and yet another cycle of Markets In Turmoil specials, CB jawboning, and who knows what else... On the other hand if we come ripping out of this and pull some 2300+ stuff, then I don't know what to say. I'd think we'd need yet another major low or two to even get to that point though. IMO these markets kinda suck now because it's hard to actually get any real bearish follow through at significant support levels without suffering the risk of constant V bounces, CB fuckery, and other games.
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Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
 
i960 said:
Here's where I'm coming from:

View attachment 162362

Whenever I see those inverted cup and handle like formations where the most recent low is a lower low than the prior one (in this case, around the 9/30 super rally):
  • I look for the 61.8% retrace (from that latest low to the last high) for a potential reversal point. That's what the bold red line is and the purplish box is an area of interest.
  • Volume profile low volume nodes indicating an area where price doesn't like to be.
  • Confluences here with fib fans from ATH to most recent low lining up here.
  • A rounded top being formed generally fitting into the overall picture.
  • Even if this were some longer term bull flag/falling wedge, we're only about half way through it and I doubt we'd see it play out before some other crisis/sentiment shift happened.
  • If we actually make it to 2k, people are going to be sufficiently bulled up and buy and holders will start seeing $ signs.
  • If we make it past 2k, with even more FOMO bullishness by then, that 2040 area looks like a potential exhaustion and reversal area, in addition to the presence of the last significant support where we sat in that god awful range for nearly 6 months.
I expect to see significant supply between 1990-2040 with significant offloading of risk onto the new believers. It then peters out, rug gets pulled, and yet another cycle of Markets In Turmoil specials, CB jawboning, and who knows what else... On the other hand if we come ripping out of this and pull some 2300+ stuff, then I don't know what to say. I'd think we'd need yet another major low or two to even get to that point though. IMO these markets kinda suck now because it's hard to actually get any real bearish follow through at significant support levels without suffering the risk of constant V bounces, CB fuckery, and other games.
More...

I think we are going for 2035 tag as Naz's obvious resistance is 2.5% higher based on today's valuation. But that's relative to rate of change though.
 
Nothing to add, I see continuation of upside cycle, retrace it may, probably to 10 daily SMA followed by further upside. Not ready to re-initiate short position, remain long for now.
 
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