Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500

[der_kommissar]

Jan 2008 vs Jan 2016:

 

[syswizard]

One more thing, 3 soldier pattern on most weekly charts, I trade this pattern via binary options on lower time frames with around 65% win rate.

Can you show us the pattern mentioned above ?

 

[romik]

Can you show us the pattern mentioned above ?

When you open a weekly chart of INDU you would see last three weeks were 3 red candles/bars, hence the saying 3 soldier pattern, whenever that happens it is likely to see 4th candle to also be in the same direction as previous 3.

 

[syswizard]

When you open a weekly chart of INDU you would see last three weeks were 3 red candles/bars, hence the saying 3 soldier pattern, whenever that happens it is likely to see 4th candle to also be in the same direction as previous 3.

Thanks for that...interesting. This seems to mimic a break-out system...which usually have a good win percentage,...but not so hot profit amount.
Where do you close ? At the next bar with a different color ?
Or do you have a profit target based on the range of the 3 soldier bars ?

 

[romik]

Thanks for that...interesting. This seems to mimic a break-out system...which usually have a good win percentage,...but not so hot profit amount.
Where do you close ? At the next bar with a different color ?
Or do you have a profit target based on the range of the 3 soldier bars ?

As I said, I use binaries to just get 4th bar to close lower than 3rd (or higher if bullish soldier pattern). What I do with it is not exactly lucrative, but it's a solid enough strategy to get at least 60/40 in your favour.

 

[syswizard]

Hmmmm....so you hold the options till they expire ?
So your loss is limited to the premium and your profits must be greater than the premium to generate a net profit ?

 

[romik]

VIX 3 higher lows, big drop coming IMO.

 

[der_kommissar]

What a repeat of the 2008 analog would look like (note these are percentage terms of late Jan-Feb 2008):

 

[syswizard]

EWT would indicate this move up is wave #4. Accordingly we have one more big one on the downside below 1820.

 

[der_kommissar]

EWT would indicate this move up is wave #4. Accordingly we have one more big one on the downside below 1820.

I still believe that eventually we test 1760-80 area (it will depend on how long we correct higher, as the trendline will adjust higher over time), but it seems that for now the market can/will churn higher while the bigger MA's slope lower until they intersect...