Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500
- Thread starter romik
- Start date
A few of the E-wave blogs I've casually followed also have that same count, Buck...Daneric looks at the Value Line or Wilshire 5000 for his counts and figured it was a 2 up that re-tested a broken channel line...Another guy uses some cycle analysis and believes the market heads down into March/April 2016...he also was very close in calling the highs around the end of Oct/early Nov...but did not make much mention of the mid-Nov mega rally and that re-test near the highs around early Dec...
A lot of analysts didn't see that coming, I almost gave up hope, but that's the benefit of marking stops outside the noise on the Papa chart. I did say that I don't follow fundamentals (multiple conflicting views), would rather monitor 'the fight' via price action, but a lot of data just doesn't make any sense, there seems to be a divergence of sorts between government reported statistic and independent organisations (non-biased ones).
Hi der kommissar. to catch the top of wave 2 i use the 2hr chart macd indicator then combine that with the 15min RSI bearish divergence. attached both charts for you to viewView attachment 160137 View attachment 160138 View attachment 160137 View attachment 160138
I think that there were a few analysts that saw the bounce (at that Dow level the guy you follow stated) and also that 2020 S&P cash level was a pretty obvious spot (a throwback touch to the 9/17 FOMC highs)...It's just the duration of those rallies and how volatility collapses and prices just "stick" to those higher levels for an inordinate amount of time...The algo's just herd in one direction and then if you "short in the hole" or do something wrong, you don't want to be stuck in a market with no range that is within earshot of all-time highs...So, I can understand why you were getting anxious..and I do remember that you mentioned that the China plunge should have had an effect on the US Markets...but these markets will diverge for a very long time and then re-adjust (see the multiple divergences between junk debt and the indicies) or the headline indicies and the equal weights or the NYA's, Wilshire's, etc...
I was also a bit spooked by that relentless rally in Russell/IWM...it just sat up there around 120, right on the 200d MA, days before that "seasonally strongest" time of the year...seriously, this market just pushes to the max pain thresholds, waits a few days and then reverses...half the time you just feel relieved to have an exit if wrong footed...
was going to begin my trial of selling on every bounce but will hold off til next week as Christmas may offer an extended rally....but if it does, this should offer a chance at an extended short next week.
Also Kommissar regarding your mention of "the mid-Nov mega rally and that re-test near the highs around early Dec..." yea I think that is what is confounding many people on the spot the bear topic as we sit right now. That rally had no real basis at all in any of the analysis I had done. I agree with romik that it probably had some fundamental basis of which I didn't really believe so I didn't expect it. But, like the rally right into the close on hike day, PPT has been working overtime to try to massage the markets going into the rate hike and on the day of the rate hike. I guess they thought the psychological conditioning was "fully in place" after the hike because they seemed to have stood back and watched mostly and now we all see what the true market thought of the hike and the economy in general.
Selling these bounces is a way of hands on testing the market sentiment, but the Fed will still try to intervene even in a hiking phase. We are also still not sure how much effect Europe and Japan QE will have on US markets as far as propping up major resistance or bouncing the marketing higher/longer than it technically should
Also Kommissar regarding your mention of "the mid-Nov mega rally and that re-test near the highs around early Dec..." yea I think that is what is confounding many people on the spot the bear topic as we sit right now. That rally had no real basis at all in any of the analysis I had done. I agree with romik that it probably had some fundamental basis of which I didn't really believe so I didn't expect it. But, like the rally right into the close on hike day, PPT has been working overtime to try to massage the markets going into the rate hike and on the day of the rate hike. I guess they thought the psychological conditioning was "fully in place" after the hike because they seemed to have stood back and watched mostly and now we all see what the true market thought of the hike and the economy in general.
Selling these bounces is a way of hands on testing the market sentiment, but the Fed will still try to intervene even in a hiking phase. We are also still not sure how much effect Europe and Japan QE will have on US markets as far as propping up major resistance or bouncing the marketing higher/longer than it technically should
Trend followers will buy whenever discount is available, that's the basis of any business transaction after all, hence that rally and smaller ones too. The main issue with those rallies is that ATH isn't even being tapped, which strengthens the suggestion that equity markets are toppy. Trend followers would argue that this is simply a basing period and that eventually ath would be taken out. I bet, as you know, the other way. I've written about GBP/JPY pair's relation to equities and as anticipated it sold off, which keeps pointing to worries in the equity camp and that safety is being looked at.
I think the Dow transports have offered an early look this year at the bear and, as in many instances, this might be more apparent after much of it has happened. Also, CAT offered an early look as well (CAT chart probably offering an early template of the eventual Dow chart as we move forward)
On thing to watch for even as the bear begins to show more clearly here is the US Govt cooking economic numbers which will make it harder to act on the bear once it is fully spotted.
1) This morning US supposedly "inadvertently" released early consumer spending data which was supposedly much better than expected (I smell Bullshit)
2) US crude inventories supposedly fall by larger than expected 5.9M barrels (complete bullshit)
both of these numbers above will be "revised downward" quietly, later in month propably late on a Friday afternoon
1) This morning US supposedly "inadvertently" released early consumer spending data which was supposedly much better than expected (I smell Bullshit)
2) US crude inventories supposedly fall by larger than expected 5.9M barrels (complete bullshit)
both of these numbers above will be "revised downward" quietly, later in month propably late on a Friday afternoon