On a percentage gain from the lows, this current rally is only about 1% away from equaling last fall's rally...That one rallied just under 12% low to high; this rally is currently around 10.6% (but that's just the NYA).
Spot the Bear. Weekly chart analysis of S&P500
- Thread starter romik
- Start date
IWM probably has to hit 200ma first
might get to see ES in 2100s again before a major pullback
might get to see ES in 2100s again before a major pullback
The big story in TAWorld is that our buddy Nasdaq was the last index to finally put in a Death Cross on its weekly time frame. What's also worth noting is that it initially sold off upon reaching .COM era's high and now have failed to break through that high after a re-test and AFTER the FED's decision to finally raise the rate by .25 AND there is now a lower high. It's still early days to call it an overall bear market, just a bearish outlook. Afterall the thread title is 'Spot The Bear' 
IMHO next week equities will likely continue descending towards the August reaction low and let's see what happens there. Only two possibilities there, a strong bottoming price action or we breakdown, which would then strengthen the case for a bear market development.
IMHO next week equities will likely continue descending towards the August reaction low and let's see what happens there. Only two possibilities there, a strong bottoming price action or we breakdown, which would then strengthen the case for a bear market development.
yea, the Nasdaq cross indeed begins to shape the bear. Brakedown of Apple shapes it even more. Might be a good time to start trial and error on "sell on the rip" SOTR
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H&S in AAPL
Looking back on this thread...Some good calls for that top around early November...Nonetheless, it was harder than hell to be aggressive because of the death in volatility up at those levels and the constant "Rickshaw market" factor of gunning the indicies in the middle of the night...I do recall that first significant "flush" around 2103 in that first week of November, which was followed by several more of them each time we crept into the low 2100's...And the perfect irony was that the Oct employment report marked the swing lows and th November employment report marked the swing highs...
Then we got the November OpEx squeeze and the "pinned" market thru Thanksgiving into the early December "beginning of the month" obligatory squeeze higher...As others have alluded, this market truly is "scripted"...It does trade off of technicals, but largely because it is killing time before one of the round robin CBer's tells the markets what to do next (and then has their trading desk "buy em ugly" the majority of the time) or perhaps "sell em ugly" if/when there is a potential rate hike on the table...Granted that script has changed recently, but it's hard to really say it is meaningfully different considering it was another OpEx week and this market (headline indicies) still function mainly in a very highly volatile and illiquid rolling chop...
Then we got the November OpEx squeeze and the "pinned" market thru Thanksgiving into the early December "beginning of the month" obligatory squeeze higher...As others have alluded, this market truly is "scripted"...It does trade off of technicals, but largely because it is killing time before one of the round robin CBer's tells the markets what to do next (and then has their trading desk "buy em ugly" the majority of the time) or perhaps "sell em ugly" if/when there is a potential rate hike on the table...Granted that script has changed recently, but it's hard to really say it is meaningfully different considering it was another OpEx week and this market (headline indicies) still function mainly in a very highly volatile and illiquid rolling chop...
One possible scenario if this channel holds down around 197 area in SPY (also 50% retrace of August thru early Nov move)...
agree. I would only venture to sell the bounces and see how that plays out at this point. Although romik has a long term short position with pretty wide stops so seems he could just stay short here until more confirmation of a bear market and then scale further funds into that short.