Surf's been making bad calls lately?
As I recall, last year his market calls were usually quite good.
Spooz popping right now- WHY???
- Thread starter Rearden Metal
- Start date
Surf's been making bad calls lately?
As I recall, last year his market calls were usually quite good.
Because CIA posted another bin laden tape maybe? Gotta keep us scared of the bogeyman 
from MNI:
Nov 29 / 18:45 ET
Bernanke: FOMC Must See if Risk Bal 'Shifted Materially'
_
By Steven K. Beckner
Market News International - Warning of potential consumer
"headwinds" and additional financial restraints on credit-sensitive
sectors, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday evening
that he and his fellow monetary policymakers will have to judge in less
than two weeks whether or not the balance of risks to the economic
outlook has "materially shifted."
Bernanke did not prejudge the Federal Open Market Committee's
decision, noting that the Fed's interest rate-setting body will get "a
good deal of relevant information" between now and its Dec. 11 meeting.
While the Fed will be "carefully" watching for worsened financial
strains on the economy, it will also be "closely" monitoring inflation
pressures and inflation expectations, Bernanke said.
But he seemed more concerned about the threat of a
worse-than-expected economic slowdown than he did when he testified
before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on Nov. 8. Indeed,
while leaving open what the FOMC might do on Dec. 11, he seemed to
suggest that the Fed must be prepared, under certain circumstances, to
act very quickly.
The Fed will need to be "exceptionally alert and flexible," given
the "greater than usual" uncertainty facing the economy and the
financial markets on which it depends, the Fed chief said.
Bernanke's relatively brief but hard-hitting comments came in
prepared remarks to the Charlotte, North Carolina Chamber of Commerce,
which gave the Dillon, South Carolina, native its "Citizen of the
Carolinas" award.
He began by recalling that, at the time of the FOMC's last meeting
on Oct. 31, economic growth had been "quite strong," but that committee
members decided -- in what the minutes revealed to be "a close call" --
to cut the federal funds rate another 25 basis points to 4.5% because
they "took the view that tightening credit conditions -- the product of
ongoing stresses in financial markets -- and some intensification of the
correction in the housing sector were likely to restrain economic
activity going forward."
The FOMC's belief in late October was that the economy was apt to
"slow significantly" in the fourth quarter, "remain sluggish in early
2008," then "gradually return to a pace approaching its long-run trend
as the drag from housing subsided and financial conditions improved."
At the same time, he recalled, the FOMC "remained concerned about
the possible effects of higher energy costs and the lower foreign
exchange value of the dollar, especially the risk that they might lead
to an increase in the public's long-term inflation expectations."
Since the last meeting, Bernanke said economic data have been
"mixed." He described residential construction and home sales as "weak,"
but called the labor markets "solid." He said claims for unemployment
insurance "have drifted up a bit in recent weeks," but said that "on
average, they have remained at a level consistent with moderate
expansion in employment."
He said job and income growth will be key to underpinning household
spending, which he described as having been "on the soft side." He
expressed some unease that spending could get softer yet.
"The Committee will have considerable additional information on
consumer purchases and sentiment to digest before its next meeting," he
said. "I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but
the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter
credit conditions and declines in stock prices seem likely to create
some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead."
On the other hand, inflation has to remain a policy concern,
Bernanke indicated. While core inflation "has remained moderate," he
said soaring energy prices are adding to overall inflation. And he said
increases in food and import prices "have the potential to put
additional pressures on inflation and inflation expectations."
"The effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on
maintaining the public's confidence that inflation will be well
controlled," Bernanke continued. "We are accordingly monitoring
inflation developments closely."
The chairman made clear the FOMC will be looking beyond the
economic data to the repercussions of the recent relapse in financial
markets back in the direction of the kind of conditions that prevailed
in August and September, when the Fed began cutting rates and pumping
extra liquidity into the system.
"The incoming data on economic activity and prices will help to
shape the Committee's outlook for the economy," he said. "However, the
outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by
renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed
the improvement that occurred in September and October."
Bernanke noted that "investors have focused on continued credit
losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions" and
that "the fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks
to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many
credit products (not only those related to housing) and increased
short-term funding pressures."
He said "these developments have resulted in a further tightening
in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional
restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive
sectors."
"Needless to say," he added, "the Federal Reserve is following the
evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention
to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the
broader economy."
Bernanke summed up without a clear tilt toward near-term
rate action, but certainly with a sense of heightened readiness to act
if necessary.
"We will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in
the coming days," he said. "In making its policy decision, the Committee
will have to judge whether the outlook for the woesome or the balance of
risks has shifted materially."
"In doing so, we will take full account of the implications for the
outlook of both the incoming economic data and the ongoing developments
in the financial markets," he went on.
"Economic forecasting is always difficult, but the current stresses
in financial markets make the uncertainty surround the outlook even
greater than usual," Bernanke concluded. "We at the Federal Reserve will
have to remain exceptionally alert and flexible as we continue to assess
how best to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability in
the United States."
Nov 29 / 18:45 ET
Bernanke: FOMC Must See if Risk Bal 'Shifted Materially'
_
By Steven K. Beckner
Market News International - Warning of potential consumer
"headwinds" and additional financial restraints on credit-sensitive
sectors, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday evening
that he and his fellow monetary policymakers will have to judge in less
than two weeks whether or not the balance of risks to the economic
outlook has "materially shifted."
Bernanke did not prejudge the Federal Open Market Committee's
decision, noting that the Fed's interest rate-setting body will get "a
good deal of relevant information" between now and its Dec. 11 meeting.
While the Fed will be "carefully" watching for worsened financial
strains on the economy, it will also be "closely" monitoring inflation
pressures and inflation expectations, Bernanke said.
But he seemed more concerned about the threat of a
worse-than-expected economic slowdown than he did when he testified
before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on Nov. 8. Indeed,
while leaving open what the FOMC might do on Dec. 11, he seemed to
suggest that the Fed must be prepared, under certain circumstances, to
act very quickly.
The Fed will need to be "exceptionally alert and flexible," given
the "greater than usual" uncertainty facing the economy and the
financial markets on which it depends, the Fed chief said.
Bernanke's relatively brief but hard-hitting comments came in
prepared remarks to the Charlotte, North Carolina Chamber of Commerce,
which gave the Dillon, South Carolina, native its "Citizen of the
Carolinas" award.
He began by recalling that, at the time of the FOMC's last meeting
on Oct. 31, economic growth had been "quite strong," but that committee
members decided -- in what the minutes revealed to be "a close call" --
to cut the federal funds rate another 25 basis points to 4.5% because
they "took the view that tightening credit conditions -- the product of
ongoing stresses in financial markets -- and some intensification of the
correction in the housing sector were likely to restrain economic
activity going forward."
The FOMC's belief in late October was that the economy was apt to
"slow significantly" in the fourth quarter, "remain sluggish in early
2008," then "gradually return to a pace approaching its long-run trend
as the drag from housing subsided and financial conditions improved."
At the same time, he recalled, the FOMC "remained concerned about
the possible effects of higher energy costs and the lower foreign
exchange value of the dollar, especially the risk that they might lead
to an increase in the public's long-term inflation expectations."
Since the last meeting, Bernanke said economic data have been
"mixed." He described residential construction and home sales as "weak,"
but called the labor markets "solid." He said claims for unemployment
insurance "have drifted up a bit in recent weeks," but said that "on
average, they have remained at a level consistent with moderate
expansion in employment."
He said job and income growth will be key to underpinning household
spending, which he described as having been "on the soft side." He
expressed some unease that spending could get softer yet.
"The Committee will have considerable additional information on
consumer purchases and sentiment to digest before its next meeting," he
said. "I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but
the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter
credit conditions and declines in stock prices seem likely to create
some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead."
On the other hand, inflation has to remain a policy concern,
Bernanke indicated. While core inflation "has remained moderate," he
said soaring energy prices are adding to overall inflation. And he said
increases in food and import prices "have the potential to put
additional pressures on inflation and inflation expectations."
"The effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on
maintaining the public's confidence that inflation will be well
controlled," Bernanke continued. "We are accordingly monitoring
inflation developments closely."
The chairman made clear the FOMC will be looking beyond the
economic data to the repercussions of the recent relapse in financial
markets back in the direction of the kind of conditions that prevailed
in August and September, when the Fed began cutting rates and pumping
extra liquidity into the system.
"The incoming data on economic activity and prices will help to
shape the Committee's outlook for the economy," he said. "However, the
outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by
renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed
the improvement that occurred in September and October."
Bernanke noted that "investors have focused on continued credit
losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions" and
that "the fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks
to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many
credit products (not only those related to housing) and increased
short-term funding pressures."
He said "these developments have resulted in a further tightening
in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional
restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive
sectors."
"Needless to say," he added, "the Federal Reserve is following the
evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention
to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the
broader economy."
Bernanke summed up without a clear tilt toward near-term
rate action, but certainly with a sense of heightened readiness to act
if necessary.
"We will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in
the coming days," he said. "In making its policy decision, the Committee
will have to judge whether the outlook for the woesome or the balance of
risks has shifted materially."
"In doing so, we will take full account of the implications for the
outlook of both the incoming economic data and the ongoing developments
in the financial markets," he went on.
"Economic forecasting is always difficult, but the current stresses
in financial markets make the uncertainty surround the outlook even
greater than usual," Bernanke concluded. "We at the Federal Reserve will
have to remain exceptionally alert and flexible as we continue to assess
how best to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability in
the United States."
