Spoos Bull Trap?
- Thread starter seasonedpro
- Start date
who on ET cares about these predictions ?
A: it is good for your ego if you made a great call
B: if you swing trade or hold positions for weeks
and months at a time
C: it is something to argue about on ET in between periods of activity?
I wish you luck on your call ... if you decide it is
a wrong call please let us know here on ET
A: it is good for your ego if you made a great call
B: if you swing trade or hold positions for weeks
and months at a time
C: it is something to argue about on ET in between periods of activity?
I wish you luck on your call ... if you decide it is
a wrong call please let us know here on ET
The major indexes haven't been able to move higher and are changing from pennants in an uptrend to rolling over. Quite a few individual issues look like they've already begun to roll over.
Even though the Fed's latest hike and accompanying language were pretty much telegraphed in advance, I still think the resultant rally was pretty feeble. That was a critical confirmation of policy and if you can't rally much on that kind of news then things aren't all that rosy. The response to the CPI number was not exactly wildly bullish either.
Flat yield curve, medicore Xmas sales, housing under pressure - I'm not super bearish but I think the market may be telling us that the Fed has already gone too far on rate hikes and the recession boogie man may be coming out of his cave.
Of course, having said all that, if oil prices collapse for some reason and earnings ramp up in Jan 06 then things will look much better.
Even though the Fed's latest hike and accompanying language were pretty much telegraphed in advance, I still think the resultant rally was pretty feeble. That was a critical confirmation of policy and if you can't rally much on that kind of news then things aren't all that rosy. The response to the CPI number was not exactly wildly bullish either.
Flat yield curve, medicore Xmas sales, housing under pressure - I'm not super bearish but I think the market may be telling us that the Fed has already gone too far on rate hikes and the recession boogie man may be coming out of his cave.
Of course, having said all that, if oil prices collapse for some reason and earnings ramp up in Jan 06 then things will look much better.
Quote from DeepFried:
The major indexes haven't been able to move higher and are changing from pennants in an uptrend to rolling over. Quite a few individual issues look like they've already begun to roll over.
Even though the Fed's latest hike and accompanying language were pretty much telegraphed in advance, I still think the resultant rally was pretty feeble. That was a critical confirmation of policy and if you can't rally much on that kind of news then things aren't all that rosy. The response to the CPI number was not exactly wildly bullish either.
Flat yield curve, medicore Xmas sales, housing under pressure - I'm not super bearish but I think the market may be telling us that the Fed has already gone too far on rate hikes and the recession boogie man may be coming out of his cave.
Of course, having said all that, if oil prices collapse for some reason and earnings ramp up in Jan 06 then things will look much better.
Spot-on
Agreed on the feeble rally on good news. IMO it is always a telling sign when the market doesn't react like it should. On the other hand, the move down from the breakout failure has been pretty boring as well. Seems like nobody has much conviction on either side.
When I started this thread I thought we would head lower but after seeing some of this action I am starting to believe at some point we are going to test the highs again, especially that magic 11k level which is essentially meaningless except to the bozos at CNBC and retail that watch them.
When I started this thread I thought we would head lower but after seeing some of this action I am starting to believe at some point we are going to test the highs again, especially that magic 11k level which is essentially meaningless except to the bozos at CNBC and retail that watch them.
well this break ain't looking good. Vix is going vertical. Maybe we will get some decent action here to finish off the year. Nice inverted hammer in GOOG, will probably be enticing enough to shorts to let them push it above $450.
There's still almost 2 weeks of trading left, we could finish in the red. There's a lot of hedge fund managers out there who were counting on this Xmas rally in order to show some results this year. Look out if their group think tells them to just get out now while they are still in the black. I think the vix is telling us this might actually be for real.