SPM discussions

Hey JJ - on that short at 10:44 you mentioned, that was a downside MACD/MA cross above the ZL. The focus on SPM is taking with trend trades (i.e. upside MACD/MA crosses when both are above ZL).

I think I recall T28 specifically mentioning that most MACD users look at the MACD/MA crosses usually against the trend. Such trades have momentum in your favor but don't have the trend in your favor.

Obviously, that 10:44 short worked, but is it really SPM? Or will you take countertrend MACD/MA crosses when MACD and MA are over a certain numerical level (i.e. stretched quite a ways)? Or do you have some other basis to take countertrend crosses?

I will take those countertrend crosses when there's MACD divergence supporting the trade, but that 10:44 short didn't have bear divergence either.
 
Quote from sandygray66:

Hey JJ - on that short at 10:44 you mentioned, that was a downside MACD/MA cross above the ZL. The focus on SPM is taking with trend trades (i.e. upside MACD/MA crosses when both are above ZL).

I think I recall T28 specifically mentioning that most MACD users look at the MACD/MA crosses usually against the trend. Such trades have momentum in your favor but don't have the trend in your favor.

Obviously, that 10:44 short worked, but is it really SPM? Or will you take countertrend MACD/MA crosses when MACD and MA are over a certain numerical level (i.e. stretched quite a ways)? Or do you have some other basis to take countertrend crosses?

I will take those countertrend crosses when there's MACD divergence supporting the trade, but that 10:44 short didn't have bear divergence either.
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Actually the focus in SPM is just using the chart setup to read price action.

That's it, pretty simple.
***
It is good when trades have the Zero Line support behind them (above for Longs, below for Shorts), but it most definitely is not necessary.

BTW, there is no mention or use of divergence in SPM.
 
That's true....no divergence discussed in SPM.

But divergence works nicely on the rare times it shows up - e.g. the short at 12:08 and the long at 15:06 today, which happened to trigger just after the HOD and LOD, respectively (of course you couldn't have known they were the HOD and LOD at the time of entry, but the divergence indicated that the directional juice was running out). :)
 
Quote from MandelbrotSet:

If you want to post a chart with your entries and exits, I'll comment on it, but me posting a trade after-the-fact is meaningless (but just for the sake of complying with your request, there was a great Long Trade @ 10:16am ET in the ES. The Short Trade @ 10:44am ET in the ES wasn't so good, but you still could have gotten at least a couple of points out of it).

***

The setups happen in the moment and you only have a minute (at most) to make the decision and take the trade folks. The only way you learn to do that is with screen time.

Good Trading [/B]
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I feel that if you post your actual entry time , it has a great value for the people who are getting familliar with SPM as they can simulate what experienced practicioner is doing , replay it on the simulator and see how it all looked like at the time of entry.
Thanks,
 
With SPM it's not that hard to enter. It's the exit.

When the line crosses enter. Get out when your profit target has been reached or you fill it's as close as it's going to get. I have been trading 4 contracts for 7 points and get it 99% of the time if I just enter on the cross.
 
7 pts profit target, huh? 99%? How are you avoiding the periodic chop periods?

And what size stop?

I've been using +4/-4 pts during 9:30-11:30 and 1:30-4:00 with +2.5/-2.5 during lunchtime (if I take a SPM trade during that time at all).
 
Quote from sandygray66:

7 pts profit target, huh? 99%? How are you avoiding the periodic chop periods?

And what size stop?

I've been using +4/-4 pts during 9:30-11:30 and 1:30-4:00 with +2.5/-2.5 during lunchtime (if I take a SPM trade during that time at all).
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Sorry, no not points but ticks. $310 per trade including slippage and commision. Do it 3 times per day for $930 per day. I don't have the nads or the $$$ to stay in for 7 pts. I will continue to add cars as I accumulate $$$ and go for the low hanging fruit. To me the longer you are in the market the greater the risk.
 
Quote from bmwhendrix:

pclark. Got any charts to show the 99% success ratio?
Sounds great!
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No, I don't have charts and 99% was tongue and cheek. I forgot I was on a stock board dealing w/numbers. Just do the research. Using SPM if you go back and use the rules the market moves at least 7 ticks in the direction of the cross and most of the time a great deal more. My stops are wide and from a money managment point of view I know this is not good but in this market I think you need it.

Paul
 
Quote from pclark:

No, I don't have charts and 99% was tongue and cheek. I forgot I was on a stock board dealing w/numbers. Just do the research. Using SPM if you go back and use the rules the market moves at least 7 ticks in the direction of the cross and most of the time a great deal more. My stops are wide and from a money managment point of view I know this is not good but in this market I think you need it.

Paul
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Paul - You don't have to be ashamed about using a stop larger than your target....mathematical expectation (% win x $ win - % loss x $ loss) can still be quite postive with a risk/reward ration > 1, depending upon the probabilities (certainly a 99% win rate would do it :) ).

So what size stop do you use with your 7 tick target?

Sandy
 
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