Quote from Quark:
I've found waiting for a retracement to the 9 SMA works best for me. If the move takes off without me, so be it.
BTW, I concur with M that everyone has to take responsibility to work with this - it's a starting point.
Yes, you may be "late", but on a 2 minute chart you will not miss much of the move. If you wish go down to a 1m or even a tick chart. Of course, the profit objective would be smaller as you work with lower timeframes. But, even with 2 m charts you can pick up 3 or 4 points on each trade.
As I have mentioned before you can use momentum to filter or time entries, e.g. if the MACD BUY is triggered and momentum is headed down, then wait until it turns up... also use momentum to exit. As soon as momentum turns down then exit.
As Mandelbrot has advised to many: you need to spend time in front of the screen... with a 2m chart, and possibly a 5m or 10 chart so you can see the trend in the longer timeframe. Also, put up the momentum indicator and in another window a chart of TICK so you can try to use tick to help with entry and exit. Or you can also put up volume indicator and observe the volume spikes as market moves and changes directions. But, the MACD cross is the key, use other indicators to filter and confirm the trade.
REMEMBER: be patient, wait for the right setup, get out if market turns around, with small losses rather than waiting or hoping market will come back to your trade. If a trade goes against you come out - the markets will always be there and there will be more trades. If you are not comfortable with a trade or the market is stalling then exit and look for another trade. Don't force the issue - go with the market flow rather than expecting the market to do what you want.
Also, use stop loss of 2 or 3 points or more and profit targets of double that, e.g. 4 to 6 points. But, the stop and profit target must be proportionate to the ATR. If volatility is high (as has been the case of last 2 months or so) then your stop must be wider or else you may be stopped in the same or next bar!
Put up the chart and jot down the trades (paper trades) and your stop and profit target, and when you exit before stop loss of profit target is reached e.g. if market goes against you.
While paper trading Imagine you have money on the line... can you pull the trigger? how do you feel when trade goes against you ? Can you exit without much hesitation or second guessing yourself? Do this for a week or two until you are in sync with the market and able to call the entries and exits... try to go live, with one lot ES. Stop if you are not comfortable or not getting the entries and exits properly. Spend more screen time ... wait for the high-probability profit trades, where the cross is almost vertical or a steep angle, which indicates a fast moving trend is underway.
When you enter a trade, immediately put in a stop order. E.g. buy ES at 968.75, put a sell stop loss order at 963 or 962. This is a worst case scenario that will get you out of the market if market moves quickly against you and you are not aware it has moved so quickly and so much. BUT REMEMBER TO CANCEL STOP ORDER after entry is closed. After you have been with it for a while you can discontinue this hard stop but work with a mental stop order.
Initially, make a few trades and take the profit quickly... build confidence... relax... be patient... don't take low probability trades. At end of day, print the charts and look back at what you did and how you could rectify errors etc. Did you panic? Did you lose patience? Did you try to force the trade? to "cheat" and front-run the markets? Did you get too greedy and waited too long for too much profit?
Takes a bit of time to get the hang of it but these markets are brutal - you must have practice and gain confidence and skill to be profitable.
