spike

10:50 5 min low of 827.5 was broken.

Based on mkt internals looks like we go much higher,but I have noticed usually max SPX runs is 15 points .
 
If you want to use 15pts, then the target becomes 831. We reached 831. Therefore, the higher probability option is to look for a reversal pattern you like.

--Db
 
Good point db but I feel the dailys make longs higher probability
trades.
I'm definitely contradicting myself though, because on down days I'm always looking for reversals
 
Why do you think dailies make longs a higher probability trade? There's nothing in the internals to suggest a bullish divergence.

In any case, once the target is reached, the higher probability trade is a reversal, unless you have some reason to expect range expansion today. There's always the possiblity that price might go sideways after reaching the target, but if you're trading more than one contract, you can exit one and leave the other in place.

--Db
 
DB

I did expect a range expansion based on a/d and tick readings
but stuck with my original exit plan.


All the monster tick and a/d readings and the mkt gave it almost all back.It always amazes me.
I'm not good at stopping and reversing.
It led to many problems in breakdown in discipline for me, and I realize for whatever reason it is beyond my emotional capabilities.
You are correct about dailys, mkt is still in a downtrend.
 
That's why I never pay any attention to TICK and TRIN and all of that. By the time you get a signal, for whatever the signal is worth in the first place, it's too late in the move to get much out of it. I'd rather look at support and resistance and take a break of either. If they don't get broken, you're in chop, regardless of what TICK, etc, have to say.

BTW, congratulations for sticking with your plan. Particularly now that we've made a 100% retracement from the breakout. :p

--Db
 
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