Speculation on S&P500 futures (analysis and trading signals)

[LCC]

Honestly, I am glad you asked.
many traders are not interested to know why.

I use Intermarket correlation to help in my trading.

This was what happened :

Hangseng went down massively & decisively about an hour earlier
(during the Hong Kong afternoon session).

subsequently
ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, cac40, India Nifty .... all went down at about the same time.

When the markets are intercorrelated,
when those ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, cac40, India Nifty .... big traders/investors reacted in harmony,
it is a high-probability trade.

so Yes. I wait for confirmation.

Yes, it is indeed a powerful "clue".
I also try to pay attention to other markets and indexes, so I manage to avoid some deals "against the current". But unfortunately such "hints" happen seldom, and I want to trade more often, so personally I make most of my deals without taking into account correlations. In addition, this approach (taking into account the correlation) is very difficult to formalize, and I find it hard to make decisions when there are no clear rules, no clear regulations)).
But your approach is really effective.

And how do you determine your goals? How do you estimate the potential of the movement?

 

[LCC]

Mini S&P 500: 09:09 - Short by price 3715.50

 

[LCC]

To the left of entry point is resistance. Short was the play there.

Yes, you were right, not for the first time.
Are you referring to the resistance at 3753 or so?

 

[SunTrader]

Yes, you were right, not for the first time.
Are you referring to the resistance at 3753 or so?

Don't know the specific price. It was well over 24 hours ago. Little behind in your post reading are you.

 

[LCC]

Mini S&P 500: 08:56 - Long by price 3708.00

 

[LCC]

Mini S&P 500: 09:51 - Short by price 3730.50

 

[LCC]

Mini S&P 500: 05:16 - Long by price 3658.25

 

[LCC]

I post the statistics of my transactions for 2 weeks. From next week I will try to spread the statistics weekly.

 

[MACD]

My theory for gaining an edge in trading:
With random entries and exits, the profit/loss ratio tends to be 50/50, (and minus commissions and slippage, of course),
but if we enter on good signals, we get about 5% advantage (i.e. already 55/45),
if we also exit on good signals, we get another 5% advantage (i.e. already 60/40),
if we maintain a good stop / take ratio (for example, 1/3) - another 5% advantage (already 65/35),
if somehow we still manage to reduce losses and increase profits (for example, moving the stop to breakeven, closing in parts, etc.) - we get another couple of percent.
In general, all this is more than enough to make good money, even despite the costs (commissions, slippage, etc.).
Well, if we also reinvest profits ...
Of course, this all works, provided that all the basic rules of money management are observed, but we all understand this anyway.

@LCC Nice Gift from Santa Claus

 

[LCC]

Mini S&P 500: 08:29 - Short by price 3781.50