Speculation on S&P500 futures (analysis and trading signals)
- Thread starter LCC
- Start date
E-Mini S&P500 04.05 - Long: 3695.25
many people don't like the way I trade / analyse the charts.
anyway, since the market right now is rather quiet, I can
spend my time in this forum.
You entered this trade about 2 hours after the European stock market opened.
and you had a tiny profit of only reward : risk ratio of 1:1.
this is bad!
I'd consider that you are lucky this time to earn a tiny profit.
If you trade in isolation without looking at the market macro picture,
you will find it very hard to earn $$$$.
do note that during the time you entered the trade,
Dax, CAC40, stoxx50 .... weren't showing clear indications they were going up.
best wishes!
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If you look at the hourly or any larger time frame - you would recognize that yesterday's late session thrust higher was a false breakout above the 30 level. Failing to hold that level as we went lower indicated a reversion back into that big ass trading range we've had going since last Friday.
This would caution against swinging long intraday / short term today.
This would caution against swinging long intraday / short term today.
%%
IT's not\ even looking @ a small sample.
EVEN when the market may pay you more than you figured;
easy to get red apples in SEPT, usually.
9 hours delay is fine, try to limit delay to 200days or 50 years.
NOT a prediction+ some dont like a 200day delay
But markets dont work if all try to trade/invest the same way.......
I catch local reversals, analyze the chart on M5, I do not analyze bars.
Yes, at some point the floating loss was $850, but the price did not reach the stop loss (3652.25). And when the price went halfway to Take Profit (to the level of 3614.75), the stop loss was moved to the level of the deal opening price (3632.25), that is, to Breakeven. Then the price did not reach Take Profit, the position closed with zero.
As part of my trading system, I could not make $500 on this trade.
Yes, those levels probably wouldn't hurt to consider.
But I'm not very good at working with levels, when I take them into account, my returns don't fall much, but they do. Probably because very good trades are also cancelled with this filter.
I am not saying that levels should not be taken into account, but in my case I had to choose: either levels or reversal traps. I decided to specialize in the latter.
Could you show me some examples of level analysis with illustrations? It would be interesting.
Alas, my prediction on this trade did not come true
If you can, post your predictions with illustrations here as well, it might be interesting and useful.
Well, I use certain objective levels from day to day, but the level I was discussing with you was what I would call a supply (resistance) level. Drawing levels has an element of subjectivity, but what I picked up from another skilled trader was that he would usually draw his levels using the closing price and not the wicks.
So, by early this week we had a fairly well defined supply level at 3720.
Just observe all those wicks which essentially could be interpreted as price being sold each time the market pops above that level. There's sellers there.
At the end of Wednesday - I'm sure many people got excited as it looked like we would finally have a successful breakout, but observe how that hourly candled ended up once again with a larger wick.
It's not uncommon that a breakout point is tested, but when we dropped back inside that range I interpreted that as the market reverting at least back to the mid range. And early warning of that breakout failing could be that there was no more momentum to the upside. Price just went sideways and finally started dropping.
So, when Thursday's RTH session opened bidless and pretty much fell from the opening I didn't see any reason to go long.
EDIT: And if anyone thinks this is hindsight analysis, I actually posted this in real-time just as Wednesday's RTH session closed:
"The drop at the Close makes you wary it could be a false breakout."
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