Spanish89- Opportunist Trades (2nd journal)
- Thread starter spanish89
- Start date
Have attached a chart, but basically ive made this trade because the dow has rocketed up 600 points in virtually a vertical line over the last 2weeks,
and so would be ridiculously difficult and rare for it not to have a pullback of atleast 150-200points over the next few days.
Especially since the ONLY reason why the market shotup so much, fast and steeply is because the government in usa announced some agreement that ''merely avoided'' mass austerity on the amercan poulation!! lol
THAT is not anything 'good' or special that actually brings wealth to the market or economy though,
and so there is nothing solid to keep the market at this level, using this new 13,600 level as its ''new lowest base'' to now start rising up from.
As if the government had not announced that the market would have crashed back to below 11,500!!
Merely ''avoiding a horrific disaster'' is NOT the same thing as 'achieving some new economic sucess'.
And so now that all this excitement from the disater-avoidance has been fully priced in / combined with the big longterm funds making their investments for the year (buy trades) which has propelled the market up so steeply,
its now starting to look extremely weak.
And so as traders start to now attack the market with short-sells / investors start to panic and cash-in their long trades,
i expect to see the market fall about 200-300points over the next 4-5days hopefully.
and so would be ridiculously difficult and rare for it not to have a pullback of atleast 150-200points over the next few days.
Especially since the ONLY reason why the market shotup so much, fast and steeply is because the government in usa announced some agreement that ''merely avoided'' mass austerity on the amercan poulation!! lol
THAT is not anything 'good' or special that actually brings wealth to the market or economy though,
and so there is nothing solid to keep the market at this level, using this new 13,600 level as its ''new lowest base'' to now start rising up from.
As if the government had not announced that the market would have crashed back to below 11,500!!
Merely ''avoiding a horrific disaster'' is NOT the same thing as 'achieving some new economic sucess'.
And so now that all this excitement from the disater-avoidance has been fully priced in / combined with the big longterm funds making their investments for the year (buy trades) which has propelled the market up so steeply,
its now starting to look extremely weak.
And so as traders start to now attack the market with short-sells / investors start to panic and cash-in their long trades,
i expect to see the market fall about 200-300points over the next 4-5days hopefully.
The idots over in usa don't want to let this piece of shit market collapse down a few hundred points despite it beinge extremely overbought!!! 
But so ive just moved my stoploss for dow to 13,814 and adjusted target order to 13,608. (Market currently at 13,765)
Instead however i have opened a short trade on the Dax at 7,718 as dax seems to be capable of moving logically in both directions,
instead of just aimlessly following the dow like it and ever other indicie had been doing for the last 4years!
Dax entry is 7,718.
Stoploss set at 8,065.
Target is 7,433.
But so ive just moved my stoploss for dow to 13,814 and adjusted target order to 13,608. (Market currently at 13,765)
Instead however i have opened a short trade on the Dax at 7,718 as dax seems to be capable of moving logically in both directions,
instead of just aimlessly following the dow like it and ever other indicie had been doing for the last 4years!
Dax entry is 7,718.
Stoploss set at 8,065.
Target is 7,433.
Yep i closed that dow trade for a loss last week,
had a a very nice scalp (i livecall it posted it in a different thread) shorting a head n shoulders formation in dow down from 13,869 down to 13,809 last week to make back 60points profit,
but so overall i took a loss of approx 150-170 on that dow trade.
Am still holding my Dax short though, and am in no rush whatsoever.
My target is 7,546 on the dax though, so about 4% lower from current (or in other words just 2 mediumly negative days in a row).
Just cashed in my Dax short at 7663,
so a profit of 55points.
I had ideally been looking for an overall target of 7583 for this market,
or a secondary target of 7645,
however i cashed the trade in just a few seconds before it gapped down to 7645!
The reason i took the trade out the market at 7663 though is because that was quite a strong support level,
plus more importantly the market has crashed down 2.5% in a nearly 100% vertical line,
and so itd be extremely difficult for it to not snap back temporarily just below the support level that i cashed in at.
And so ive banked my profits from that trade,
plus has set a trade entry order to resell the Dax at 7750, with a target set for that of 7683.
Would extremely love that entry to be filled today.
so a profit of 55points.
I had ideally been looking for an overall target of 7583 for this market,
or a secondary target of 7645,
however i cashed the trade in just a few seconds before it gapped down to 7645!
The reason i took the trade out the market at 7663 though is because that was quite a strong support level,
plus more importantly the market has crashed down 2.5% in a nearly 100% vertical line,
and so itd be extremely difficult for it to not snap back temporarily just below the support level that i cashed in at.
And so ive banked my profits from that trade,
plus has set a trade entry order to resell the Dax at 7750, with a target set for that of 7683.
Would extremely love that entry to be filled today.
Highest Dax reached today was 7,693, before crashing down to below 7,580,
and so my sell order was not filled for this move. :/
Have just short-sold Eur/Gbp at 0.8641,
with a target set for this trade at 0.8500.
The reason ive made this trade is because Eur is extremely over-bought against the Gbp, yet has absolutely no solid fundamentals to backup this strength,
instead its 100% just purely 'manipulation strength'.
What i mean by that is that its the Japanese yen's enforced weakness by the Bank of Japan that has causes that extreme move of weakness in the Japanese yen against the Euro,
to which Eur/Gbp is quite closely correlated and so has taken the Gbp in an extremely steep spike weaker against the euro.
Plus as euro had been soooo oversold for years, as the big money cashed in/reversed their trades that causes the move to happen so fast.
The reason why ive made the trade today and at this level is mainly based on technical analysis though.
As if you look at the chart that ive attached you will see how ridiculously steep and overdone this recent spike is,
plus will also see that a double-top formation has now formed.
This is an extremely weak formation, and so means that the market is now extremely weak and vunerable,
thus the perfect time for me to start attacking it!!
If you check the chart ive attached ive even circled the 2 shoulders to show the double-top and then its 2 shoulders,
and so ive just sold at the end of the 2nd shoulder.
And if you then look at my yearly chart you will see how extremely overdone this huge spike has been due to its length and verticalness,
and so will see that the only time any spike of strength anywhere close to that has occured (mid 2010) how hard it then got slapped back down!
Also there is the quaterly Eu summit happening today and tomorrow,
and so its very likely that the EU are now going to join the battle with USA, and Japan of trying to weaken the Euro.
Especially since this strong euro is going to be hurting German exports very badly,m which will be extremely pissing of Merkel,
and as she is the boss of Europe if she wants the euro to weaken she will get her way eventually.
And so the result of this summit is likely to either be that ECB cut interest rates to 0.5% (thus weakening euro),
OR,
they just start faffing arounding panicking, more corruption news comes out in Spain, and Silvio Berlusconi starts jeering and mocking EU again threating to rebecome the prime minister of Italy,
and Euro crashes.
What trades is everyone else looking to make today though??
and so my sell order was not filled for this move. :/
Have just short-sold Eur/Gbp at 0.8641,
with a target set for this trade at 0.8500.
The reason ive made this trade is because Eur is extremely over-bought against the Gbp, yet has absolutely no solid fundamentals to backup this strength,
instead its 100% just purely 'manipulation strength'.
What i mean by that is that its the Japanese yen's enforced weakness by the Bank of Japan that has causes that extreme move of weakness in the Japanese yen against the Euro,
to which Eur/Gbp is quite closely correlated and so has taken the Gbp in an extremely steep spike weaker against the euro.
Plus as euro had been soooo oversold for years, as the big money cashed in/reversed their trades that causes the move to happen so fast.
The reason why ive made the trade today and at this level is mainly based on technical analysis though.
As if you look at the chart that ive attached you will see how ridiculously steep and overdone this recent spike is,
plus will also see that a double-top formation has now formed.
This is an extremely weak formation, and so means that the market is now extremely weak and vunerable,
thus the perfect time for me to start attacking it!!
If you check the chart ive attached ive even circled the 2 shoulders to show the double-top and then its 2 shoulders,
and so ive just sold at the end of the 2nd shoulder.
And if you then look at my yearly chart you will see how extremely overdone this huge spike has been due to its length and verticalness,
and so will see that the only time any spike of strength anywhere close to that has occured (mid 2010) how hard it then got slapped back down!
Also there is the quaterly Eu summit happening today and tomorrow,
and so its very likely that the EU are now going to join the battle with USA, and Japan of trying to weaken the Euro.
Especially since this strong euro is going to be hurting German exports very badly,m which will be extremely pissing of Merkel,
and as she is the boss of Europe if she wants the euro to weaken she will get her way eventually.
And so the result of this summit is likely to either be that ECB cut interest rates to 0.5% (thus weakening euro),
OR,
they just start faffing arounding panicking, more corruption news comes out in Spain, and Silvio Berlusconi starts jeering and mocking EU again threating to rebecome the prime minister of Italy,
and Euro crashes.
What trades is everyone else looking to make today though??
Was a beautiful trade if anyone else followed my Eur/Gbp short sell...
Just cashed in at 0.8549,
so for 92pips profit in basically a vertical line drop over 25minutes!
Am looking to resell Eur/Gbp at 0.8612 today or tomorrow hopefully if it can bounce back to there,
with target of 0.8500.
THis is the 1st time ive ever even looked at an Eur/Gbp chart, let alone traded it,
and so am extremely pleased with how sucessful i was at analysing it.
Just cashed in at 0.8549,
so for 92pips profit in basically a vertical line drop over 25minutes!
Am looking to resell Eur/Gbp at 0.8612 today or tomorrow hopefully if it can bounce back to there,
with target of 0.8500.
THis is the 1st time ive ever even looked at an Eur/Gbp chart, let alone traded it,
and so am extremely pleased with how sucessful i was at analysing it.