Spanish89- Opportunist Trades (2nd journal)
- Thread starter spanish89
- Start date
Target moved to 88.32
Currently at 88.04, so holding an open profit 36pips profit.
Dont like the price-action at all on oil though,
plus extremely dont want to bother taking the risk of holding into inventories this afternoon,
as theres no logical reason to take any of that risk to merely have the potential of making a few dozen pips extra.
I want to get out of this trade asap, as it was a very poor trade that i made for the totally wrong reasons anyways,
and so am just trying to watch the market onto 88.32.
Currently at 88.04, so holding an open profit 36pips profit.
Dont like the price-action at all on oil though,
plus extremely dont want to bother taking the risk of holding into inventories this afternoon,
as theres no logical reason to take any of that risk to merely have the potential of making a few dozen pips extra.
I want to get out of this trade asap, as it was a very poor trade that i made for the totally wrong reasons anyways,
and so am just trying to watch the market onto 88.32.
And this is why i am so incredibly sucessful compared to all other traders!! 
Because i have gained so much experience trading over the years that im able to detect instantly just by watching how the line moves on the 1minute chart when something isn't right!
I cashed in yesterday at 88.22 (the ultimate intraday high) as i saw something quite serious wasn't right.
Minutes after i cashed in oil started crashing, and then crashing further!
And then today the market has just exploded downwards, wiping out every sap who remained long!
I cashed in at 88.22, oil is now at 82.63!
So has crashed 6dollars in just 12hours.
Because i have gained so much experience trading over the years that im able to detect instantly just by watching how the line moves on the 1minute chart when something isn't right!
I cashed in yesterday at 88.22 (the ultimate intraday high) as i saw something quite serious wasn't right.
Minutes after i cashed in oil started crashing, and then crashing further!
And then today the market has just exploded downwards, wiping out every sap who remained long!
I cashed in at 88.22, oil is now at 82.63!
So has crashed 6dollars in just 12hours.
Just bought Oil at 82.03, target set at market-price 83.29.
The reason ive bought this price today is because 81.86/95 is an extremely strong support area on yearly chart,
oil has crashed vertically down from 106 to 82 in a vertical line!
On the yearly chart vertical crashes of $25+ have all always bounced atleast a few dollars very sharply.
I would love a higher target, however dont want to be caught with my trousers down with runup to greek election,
and so want to dump this trade today for a few hundred quid profit.
Also there is no news or data out today, and so no danger of market dropping on bad data.
Am going sleep now, waking up in 7hours from now, and so hopefully target will have been touched by then.
(Chart attached to show why i think this trade is a moderately good buying opportunity).
The reason ive bought this price today is because 81.86/95 is an extremely strong support area on yearly chart,
oil has crashed vertically down from 106 to 82 in a vertical line!
On the yearly chart vertical crashes of $25+ have all always bounced atleast a few dollars very sharply.
I would love a higher target, however dont want to be caught with my trousers down with runup to greek election,
and so want to dump this trade today for a few hundred quid profit.
Also there is no news or data out today, and so no danger of market dropping on bad data.
Am going sleep now, waking up in 7hours from now, and so hopefully target will have been touched by then.
(Chart attached to show why i think this trade is a moderately good buying opportunity).
Just cashed in that Oil trade Manually,
and i cashed it in at 83.01,
even though i had set target at 83.29
I cashed in 5minutes ago, and market has just shotup at touched 83.42 within last few minutes,
so that target would have been very good and sucessful.
However instead of being like all other traders who would have just not said anything and pretended that they let their target get hit,
im actually going to explain with my chart to show why me cashin in at 83.01 when i did was the CORRECT thing to do.
(Hopefully this will help in teaching others of you who follow my journal)
and i cashed it in at 83.01,
even though i had set target at 83.29
I cashed in 5minutes ago, and market has just shotup at touched 83.42 within last few minutes,
so that target would have been very good and sucessful.
However instead of being like all other traders who would have just not said anything and pretended that they let their target get hit,
im actually going to explain with my chart to show why me cashin in at 83.01 when i did was the CORRECT thing to do.
(Hopefully this will help in teaching others of you who follow my journal)
Heres the chart which will show in more detail why when you see movement like what oil did today,
why its extremely risky and illogical to keep holding out for a preset target just for sake of 'ego'.
You can only cash in trades at that exact moment of the PRESENT time,
cant see whatl happen in next few seconds or minutes of future,
nor can wait to see what happens and then cash-in at a past price if the future movement doesn't keep going your way..
And so at that precise moment ALL you can see is where the Oil price is at current,
where the actual movment lows started from to get upto that price,
how fast or slowly it moved, and how steeply it moved at the various times of its movement.
In this scenario Oil actually started this up movement from the 81.40 level at 10am this morning.
And so at 83.02 crude had already had a big 160pips rally from the low, which was a low that had formed a long base lasting a good few hours,
therefore it wasn't a sharp steep bounce snapback that you get after steep crashes,
this was a long slow grinding up move,
which means that its a very weak and exhausting move, which gets weaker and weaker the higher up it grinds as its being forced up hill,
not boucing freely.
You can see from the chart that from 11am till 1:30pm oil was forming a 2nd sideways base, which was good,
as this showed it was finding support and enough support to hold it there for a few hours.
However in the 9minutes from approx 1:56pm until 2:05pm oil suddenly shot-up vertically 100pips from 82.00 to 83.00!
And so whilst this was an extremely powerful move, due to how fast and steep it was this was also an incredibly TEMPORARY move,
especially since there was no news catalyst that triggers it.
And so you knew that as this move was extremely temporary, that it could crash down back to 82.00 within seconds, any second,
just as fast as it moved up.
Therefore every single second you hold a trade open during a move like that is merely more and more seconds of ever expanding risk and exposure to the time-limit where the temporary movement collapses back down in a snap-back!! :|
And so thats why when you see those sideways pauses (underlined in green) after a 90+ vertical upshoot, which at the time will be the only and latest thing you will be able to see at that present moment,
you would be extremely foolish and taking a huge gamble to not cash in safely there.
As whilst there may be 25-30pips more potential profit on the upside before market hits strong support,
there is 125-130pips potential downside risk that the market could easily rollback in on itself into which far more ease.
*If the market had formed a sideways base between 82.60/82.85 for atleast 30minutes-1hour,
and then started shooting up vertically, itd have been far far more sensible to believe a 50pips jolt from 82.80 to 83.30 could easily occur,
but with less than 3minutes of pause at 82.60 there was no base, and thefore the move was starting from 82.05 NOT from 82.60.
why its extremely risky and illogical to keep holding out for a preset target just for sake of 'ego'.
You can only cash in trades at that exact moment of the PRESENT time,
cant see whatl happen in next few seconds or minutes of future,
nor can wait to see what happens and then cash-in at a past price if the future movement doesn't keep going your way..
And so at that precise moment ALL you can see is where the Oil price is at current,
where the actual movment lows started from to get upto that price,
how fast or slowly it moved, and how steeply it moved at the various times of its movement.
In this scenario Oil actually started this up movement from the 81.40 level at 10am this morning.
And so at 83.02 crude had already had a big 160pips rally from the low, which was a low that had formed a long base lasting a good few hours,
therefore it wasn't a sharp steep bounce snapback that you get after steep crashes,
this was a long slow grinding up move,
which means that its a very weak and exhausting move, which gets weaker and weaker the higher up it grinds as its being forced up hill,
not boucing freely.
You can see from the chart that from 11am till 1:30pm oil was forming a 2nd sideways base, which was good,
as this showed it was finding support and enough support to hold it there for a few hours.
However in the 9minutes from approx 1:56pm until 2:05pm oil suddenly shot-up vertically 100pips from 82.00 to 83.00!
And so whilst this was an extremely powerful move, due to how fast and steep it was this was also an incredibly TEMPORARY move,
especially since there was no news catalyst that triggers it.
And so you knew that as this move was extremely temporary, that it could crash down back to 82.00 within seconds, any second,
just as fast as it moved up.
Therefore every single second you hold a trade open during a move like that is merely more and more seconds of ever expanding risk and exposure to the time-limit where the temporary movement collapses back down in a snap-back!! :|
And so thats why when you see those sideways pauses (underlined in green) after a 90+ vertical upshoot, which at the time will be the only and latest thing you will be able to see at that present moment,
you would be extremely foolish and taking a huge gamble to not cash in safely there.
As whilst there may be 25-30pips more potential profit on the upside before market hits strong support,
there is 125-130pips potential downside risk that the market could easily rollback in on itself into which far more ease.
*If the market had formed a sideways base between 82.60/82.85 for atleast 30minutes-1hour,
and then started shooting up vertically, itd have been far far more sensible to believe a 50pips jolt from 82.80 to 83.30 could easily occur,
but with less than 3minutes of pause at 82.60 there was no base, and thefore the move was starting from 82.05 NOT from 82.60.