Spanish89- Opportunist Trades (2nd journal)

Just looked at chart, and sadly (although good) my call from yesterday was correct again... :/

I called to buy oil below 91.86 but anywhere above 91.26,
market dipped to 91.59 area and then formed mini reversal formation,
before bouncing 60+ pips in 3minutes!

So trade would have been worth atleast 50ticks for 4minutes work.
 

Attachments

Just looked at chart, and sadly (although good) my call from yesterday was correct again... :/

I called to buy oil below 91.86 but anywhere above 91.26,
market dipped to 91.59 area and then formed mini reversal formation,
before bouncing 60+ pips in 3minutes!

So trade would have been worth atleast 50ticks for 4minutes work.
 

Attachments

Ive just relooked at the charts though and have revised my entry-points calls quite significantly.. :)

This 91.86 level has formed a support base for the last 1hour, and may likely hold for a few more hours,
however i would NOT enter a trade there now as overall it looks too weak on the bigger timeframe,
plus when you factor in the risk of weekend news.


I instead would (will) now buy some oil 1stly at 88.86,
2ndly add some more buy contacts if it falls to 86.85,
and then add any final buy contracts if it managed to get down to 86.23.


And my exit target level for that trade will be 90.92.



Chart attached to show why those levels.
 

Attachments

Ive put my JP Morgan trade into 2nd priority.

1st main priority is to now buy the VIX itself at 18.65 if it can get down to there this week,
and then hold that into the runup/after the Greek elections,
to cash in when the Vix spikes to 40-50!

(Or if we get a Greek crash out of the EU VIX could easily spike close to 80 like it did back in November 2008! :D :p


In my view this trade is the best and most logical trade in the world currently,
as between 1990-2012 the vix has used 14-23 as a longterm sideways base,
basically finding a range channel of a few points and then floating sideways between there for a few years.

So extremely tiny amount of risk of the downside,
VS
massive giant amount of very likely upside potential! :)


As whilst when things are going normal Vix is between 15-20,
as soon as panic news headlines hit the market the vix shoots UPWARDS from 20 to 30/34 within minutes/hours!!

Yet there simply has never ever ever in the last 30years+ history been a day when the vix shot DOWNWARDS from the 18 level... :D



The next few weeks leadingup to the Greek election is going to create a huge amount of anxiousness and volatility in the market,
and so VIX will move sharply upwards (guaranteeing moderate profit atleast),
with quite a decent chance that Greece will default in some way, which will cause a worldwide markets meltdown that it will cause VIX to rocket upwards to the 60+ mark! :p
 
So to summarise this VIX trade-

I will buy at around the 18.65 level.

I want that level as its been a key solid base support level for 30+ years.


I am looking to hold this trade till late June at the earliest (so 1month from now),
but dont especially want to hold it for longer than 3months/
Although it doesn't cost me anything to hold it for as long as i choose.


Target for this trade wont be a price mark,
as the VIX simply doesn't react to any kind of resistance levels.

But so my target for this trade will be to cash it in about 25-40% the way into a markets-meltdon that would occur once Greek defaults (or horrific headlines come out about it happening).

So the exit will be purely based on the economic news and headlines,
although i would refuse to cash in before the 40.5 level.
 
Vix is traded in 0.05 = 1 pips.
So each 1points VIX movement (18.65 - 19.65) = 20pips.


So if i can buy it at 18.65, my profit table will be this-

Vix at 40.65 = 440pips.
50.65= 640pips.
60.65= 840pips.
70.65= 1,040pips.
80.65= 1,240pips.

Im going to be making the trade at £5 per point,
so will earn between £2,200 - £6,200 profit from this trade!! :D :cool: :p



On the downside the chart would be-

Vix falls from 18.65 down to 9.30 (would be a new record lowest its been in over 50years), and i would lose around £950.
 
Quote from spanish89:

And ive managed to find a beautiful clear little chart backing up my S&R analysis, and confirming that 3,236.5 is an extremely strong key support level,
dating back to the 2008 crash even. :)
More...


As posted last week,
my buy order for JP Morgan was filled 5mins after the market opened today at 3,256.

And i just cashed that trade in at 3,354.

So earnt a very nice 98pips profit in just under 1hour! :)


Ive attached chart showing that my analysis of 3,256 being extremely strong key support level was perfect and correct,
as market was barely able to hold below that for even 1minute before bouncing very fast and steeply up nearly 60 points in 5minutes.

And i cashed in at this latest spike to 3,354 as i don't want to be buying and holding JP Morgan longetrm at this time,
as the Greece meltdown will destroy every equity market in the world and crash JP Morgan down to the 2,650 level or below.

And so i wanted to free up all my capital to buy very hard into the VIX as soon as the price gets near enough to/below 18.65.



I am very pleased with this trade though. :)

As i have started trading with just £1,000 capital this time, bought JP Morgan at £3 per point, and made 98points in under 1hour,
so already have earnt £300 profit from just 1k capital with total ease. :cool:
 

Attachments

Quote from Jestersofmalice:

good trade, mate.
More...


Cheers mate. :)

The more and more discerning and discriminating ive become about trades though the easier trading gets.. :cool:


Knowing 98% of the time the exact levels that the markets will move to, bounce from/react at, and then where approx it will move to,
is very easy for me to do. All my livecalls over the last 12months have proved this.


However im now far more interested in focusing on slashing the amounts of trades i make (and so cutting my profit amount very signficantly),
but ensuring that the ONLY trades i make are ones with extremely tiny potential downside risk of me ever losing any money on them. :)

As im now at a point where not only don't physically need any money from the stockmarket,
but moreover that ive actually now got the amount of money in my bank account which makes not even have the ''hunger'' to increase it,
i just dont have the hunger. :/



Its quite an odd and awkward place to be in when trading tbh though.

As the amount of money ive got isn't much at all,
therefore its not like i have can say ''Il keep 5k as savings cash in my wallet / with 1k trading money to play with'',
but,
at the same time its a big enough amount of money that it provides me with a very good and solid amount of comfort and security by just having it there as my savings money,
and so i have no logical desire or hunger in risking losing it just to try making it a slightly larger pile.



For now my focus is completely on buying VIX at 18.65 though, at £8 per pip. :p
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top