Spanish89- Opportunist Trades (2nd journal)

[beachhouse]

Time to check facts.

To OP:

How much was your account balance when you started? Did you say you started with 3547 pounds this time?

As you said, you shorted once in 95s, and again in 96s. So I assume you must have a position of at least 2 (two) contracts.

With an average entry price of 95.90, you have lost 3 (three) dollars. That should take 6000 dollars out of your account.

I want to know your broker's margin maintenance requirement. For 2 contracts, you must have a certain amount of money in your account to keep the position.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from NoDoji:

Reversing and going long when the counter-trend pullback short trigger the other day found support, and successfully confirmed that support, at the shallowest pullback level (94.60 zone) makes perfect sense for a swing trader. That's a sign extreme strength and that's where the bulls added to their winners for the next push up, which has already run nearly 4 points from that support level.

I've noticed over the years that some traders are fixated on shorting. The OP seems to only see the short side.

I can understand that as when things fall they plummet faster than when they rise, typically. But if you are a perma-bear, so to speak, what do you do to produce trading profits when the underlying is in a bullish uptrend, whether LT or ST or that week?

I am sure you, NoDoji, can buy or sell CL. You are not obsessed with only one direction.

 

[The Trojan]

Quote from beachhouse:

As you said, you shorted once in 95s, and again in 96s. So I assume you must have a position of at least 2 (two) contracts.

With an average entry price of 95.90, you have lost 3 (three) dollars. That should take 6000 dollars out of your account.

I want to know your broker's margin maintenance requirement. For 2 contracts, you must have a certain amount of money in your account to keep the position.

He doesn't trade contracts the way you mean. He doesn't understand what a contract is in the sense it's really used.

 

[riskaddict]

Quote from usman88:

1)I am talking about going long/short from current market rate which was $98 a couple of hours back (You already are 100 ticks in profit but thats not we are talking about here)

2)Let me clarify. My exact statement is

"Market will hit a ceiling of around $100 by tuesday after which it will hang around $97-$99 for 1/2 days. Probably on Friday or next Monday we should see a $3-$5 drop after which downtrend should be established. Then within 4-5 working days we would head towards $91 which would be a major testing are"

Lets see if I was correct or not next week

This btw not just a statement. I made some shorts right now at $99 in the Jan12

from your lips to god's ears!! Although 101.50 will actually be the short term top. Although I wouldn't be shocked if it tests the 200 day around 95.30 before it goes above 101 just to shake out the weak bulls. It sure is fun making predictions this week is going to be epic!

 

[spanish89]

Quote from iceman1:

Averaging down price... now that's a sign of a great trader.
What if it hits 100+ first before having a key reversal. what possible basis is there for averaging the short unless there is some articulable reason. What is that reason?? Are you doing it on fundamentals???! lol

why didn't you reverse and go long.

Jim Rodgers, the most sucessful trader/investor on earth used averaging-in as the 1 of key elements of his trading stratergy..

I don't understand why you use the word averaging ''down'',
as i call it (and use the method) as averaging ''in''.

(If i want to have a trade of £3 per tick, i will enter my 1st sell at price A,
then market has to either go in my favour and give me profit or move to a more overdone level at which S&R level i will add my 2nd sell, giving me a better overall entry price than if id used all my ammo (capital) on the 1st entry,
then market has to either go in my favour and give me profit or move to a more overdone level at which S&R level i will add my 3rd sell, getting all 3 of my sell contracts in at a far better price than if id used all on the 1st entry.



I made this trade for this 1 reason,
the market has moved from $76 upto $96 (25%) in just 2 weeks, without any actual pullback-revesals.

And therefore the market is now extremely overdone to the upside,
has very little potential upside (after already rocketing 25% in 2weeks) VS the huge downside potential,
and all the future news and fundamentals are far more likely to now going to be pressuring the market down.



I didn't and wouldn't ever go long after a market like Oil after its already rocketed up 25% in just 2weeks,
especially when its correlated almost tick-by-tick to the dow,
and when all the fundamentals are now going to be pressuring the price to the downside.

The time to buy oil if you wanted to go long would have been down at the $76-79 levels after it had already crashed down so much,
although then no-one wanted to buy any commodities as the market sentiment was so extremely panicky and bearish, which headlines causing the market to tank almost everyday.

Not to wait until the market has rocketed up 25% in just 2weeks, and THEN go long.

 

[spanish89]

Quote from NoDoji:

Spanish doesn't have either luxury because he's fighting the trend in his trading time frame and is in the red.

MY timeframe??

Sorry but when the fcuk did i gain enough authority to have certain timframes dedicated to me??


The market's movement remains exactly the same regardless of whether you use the yearly chart or the tick-by-tick chart with a magnifying class!

I made this trade based on what i saw on the 5mins zoomed out to max/daily/weekly charts of how market has moved up 25% in just 2weeks!


Fair enough my 2nd re-entry into this market by making this 2nd trade has turned-out to be a few % too early,
however after a 25% move up, i honest don't let myself get too upset of having sold after 23% up..

As all i now need is the market to move down 5%, leaving still up 20% after those 2weeks, and il make an amount of profit that il be extremely pleased with.

 

[spanish89]

Quote from iceman1:

After my arse healed I learned to never pick a top or bottom...

best to sell after confirmation of trend reversal (and vice versa on buying).
Buy high and sell higher + sell low and buy lower

-not-

only sell at top and buy at the bottoms

No that is an extremely foolish statement and stratergy...

As YOU are assuming that you can know when the market is going to keep moving in the same direction that it has for the last few days.

Waiting till the market has already moved quite alot in a certain direction, and THEN making a trading hoping it will move abit more in that direction before snapping-back.



Wheras i don't ever claim to have a crystal ball that tells me when/where the market's top or bottom is,
i instead merely wait until there has been a huge move (25% in 2weeks for example) in 1direction without any fundamentals that will be present and continuing everyday,
and i then start building my trade in at the key S&R levels to catch the snap-back WHEN it comes.

And Oil is extremely different to trading shares in companies,
as whilst a company's stock price can easily go to £0,
Oil is always forced to be stuck trading within various ranges.


Therefore whilst a company stock-price can crash 25% in a few days and then just remain there for months or years,
Oil's will ALWAYS snap back atleast a few %.

 

[spanish89]

Quote from beachhouse:

Time to check facts.

To OP:

How much was your account balance when you started? Did you say you started with 3547 pounds this time?

As you said, you shorted once in 95s, and again in 96s. So I assume you must have a position of at least 2 (two) contracts.

With an average entry price of 95.90, you have lost 3 (three) dollars. That should take 6000 dollars out of your account.

I want to know your broker's margin maintenance requirement. For 2 contracts, you must have a certain amount of money in your account to keep the position.

I live in England, not USA....

And so here trades are based in £s per point, not fixed-contracts.


My trade was £3 per tick, so 2dollars against me put me at a £600 open-loss, not 6thousand...

 

[spanish89]

Quote from iceman1:

I've noticed over the years that some traders are fixated on shorting. The OP seems to only see the short side.

I can understand that as when things fall they plummet faster than when they rise, typically. But if you are a perma-bear, so to speak, what do you do to produce trading profits when the underlying is in a bullish uptrend, whether LT or ST or that week?

I am sure you, NoDoji, can buy or sell CL. You are not obsessed with only one direction.

Actually i have no issue or sway to trading on either short or long only currently..


During 2008 i ONLY shorted Oil during the crash from $147 down to about $60,
and then i started range trading it between $60-43 by selling after every hugely overdone up-move and buying after hugely overdone down-moves,
and then ONLY buying when it below $43.



And for the last 3-4months whilst i may have done maybe 80% sell trades vs 20% long trades that is because for the last 3-4months the market has been in huge-panic mode, with markets all crashing downwards most of the days per week,
and so it was far more logical to short-sell markets like aud/usd, oil, coffee, S&P,
rather than be buying them during the crash.

 

[spanish89]

Quote from The Trojan:

He doesn't trade contracts the way you mean. He doesn't understand what a contract is in the sense it's really used.

I do full understand what an offical nymex crude-oil contract is actually my paper-trading friend..


However i have absolutely no need whatsoever to be trading with (risking) $10/£7 per tick,
when my target is merely to earn about £250 ($350) per month from trading.


I used to trade £15-16 per tick back in 2008/9 when i needed to make big money as this was my only income for 1 and half years,
however now that i merely trade for abit of fun and for a little side income i have no interest in taking on any of the stress from trading at big size.