Spanish bank stocks

Quote from Whistlingleaf:

EWP back down to Mar 2009 levels ... where do you think it will go over the rest of 2012 ?
More...

Not sure - depends on how much more LTRO and QE there is.
 
Extra capital requirements for Spanish banks were announced on Friday 11 May.

***

"Spain Hit By Fears On Banks, Athens"
Updated May 14, 2012, 6:31 p.m. ET

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304371504577403560325151618.html

All amounts in EUR:

BKIA 4.72 billion
POP 2.31 billion (includes 1.70 for POP and the rest for Banco Pastor)

SAN 2.70 billion
Caixa 2.10 billion
BBVA 1.80 billion

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bbva-lift-provisions-2-3-070024258.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/spains-banks-detail-cost-property-192831570.html

Specific details of the requirements in this Bloomberg article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ty-on-fourth-bank-cleanup-in-three-years.html

De Guindos said banks will have a month from today to say how they will meet the provisioning requirements, which come on top of the 53.8 billion euros of charges and capital ordered by the government in the previous cleanup effort in February.

The state will step in through its bank rescue fund, known as FROB, to buy shares or contingent convertible bonds of banks that struggle to meet the requirements, said de Guindos.

Under the program, which he said will be profitable for the government, banks that borrow will have to pay 10 percent interest and repay the aid within five years. The “Co-Co” bonds will be an “adequate” way to channel FROB funds to lenders that need them, the Spanish Association of Savings Banks said in an emailed statement.
 
TEXT-S&P takes various rating actions on Spanish banks

www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/25/idUSL1E8GP9KV20120525

Fri May 25, 2012 1:00pm EDT

RATINGS LIST
The ratings below are counterparty credit ratings.

** Downgraded; CreditWatch Action
To From
Banco Popular Espanol S.A. BB+/Negative/B BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3

Bankinter S.A. BB+/Negative/B BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3

** Downgraded; Remain On CreditWatch
To From
Banca Civica S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
BB/Watch Pos BB+/Watch Pos

Bankia S.A. BB+/Watch Neg/B BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3

Banco Financiero y de Ahorros S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating

B+/Watch Neg BB-/Watch Neg

** Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action
To From
Banco Financiero y de Ahorros S.A.
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
B B/Watch Neg

Banco de Sabadell S.A. BB+/Negative/B BB+/Watch Neg/B

CaixaBank S.A.
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
A-2 A-2/Watch Neg

Confederacion Espanola de Cajas de Ahorros

BBB-/Stable/A-3 BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3

Kutxabank S.A. BBB-/Negative/A-3 BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3

** Affirmed
To From
Banco Santander S.A. A-/Negative/A-2 A-/Negative/A-2

Banco Espanol de Credito S.A.
A-/Negative/A-2 A-/Negative/A-2

Santander Consumer Finance, S.A.
BBB+/Negative/A-2 BBB+/Negative/A-2

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.
BBB+/Negative/A-2 BBB+/Negative/A-2

** Remain On CreditWatch
To From
Banca Civica S.A.
Short-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
B/Watch Pos B/Watch Pos

CaixaBank S.A.
Long-Term Counterparty Credit Rating
BBB+/Watch Neg BBB+/Watch Neg

Caja de Ahorros y Pensiones de Barcelona
BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3

Ibercaja Banco S.A. BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3 BBB-/Watch Neg/A-3
 
Apart from

BKIA (recent bailout announcements)
BCIV (CABK takeover saves the day)

it looks like POP is the next vulnerable Spanish bank, and then maybe SAB and BKT.
 
Goldman Sachs on Spanish banks capital requirements

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-bankia-down-who-next

POP 6.3 billion (more than current market cap; GS research confirms my view from earlier in this thread that POP is the next big Spanish bank in danger).

BKT 1.0 billion
CABK 6.9 billion

SAB 0.2 billion more capital than required (I am surprised by this)

BTO 3.3 billion (but majority owned by SAN)

SAN and BBVA have multi-billion shortfalls, but given their large market caps, it shouldn't be a problem.
 
25 May
Bankia announced that it will receive a 19 billion EUR bailout, of which 12 billion will be capital raised via a rights issue.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-billion-in-state-backing-to-restructure.html

http://www.bankia.com/en/information-for-shareholders-and-investors/material-disclosures/2012

Mon 11 June

Spanish bank stocks open near the highs on the announcement of 100 billion EUR being made available to recapitalize banks.

Specific details of the amount to recapitalize each bank (other than Bankia) should be made available on Thurs 21 June, when the Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger reports are published:

"Spain said it wanted aid for its banks but would not specify the precise amount until two independent consultancies - Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger - deliver their assessment of the banking sector's capital needs some time before June 21."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/eurozone-agrees-lend-spain-100-024818587.html

These two firms were hired on 21 May.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...wyman-roland-berger-to-stress-test-banks.html
 
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