Spanish bank stocks

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/POP:SM
POP at 1.118 EUR on Fri 05 November

"Banco Popular Selling Stock at Discount to Cover Deficit"
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-10/b...hares-at-discount-to-plug-capital-gap-1-.html

"Existing shareholders can pay 0.401 euros and will receive three new shares for each one they own, he said. The bank’s shares closed at 1.118 euros on Nov. 9 and 1.701 euros on Sept. 28, the last trading day before the sale was announced. "

"UPDATE 2-Popular succumbs to steep discount on rights issue"

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/10/popular-issue-idUSL5E8MA0TL20121110

* Offers 3-for-1 rights issue at 0.401 euros/share
* Price represents 76 percent discount from end-September

****

For whatever silly reason the stock went as high as 1.251 EUR this morning, despite 75% of the (pro-forma) shares being issued at 0.401 EUR.

Even if you use 2.00 EUR as the "value" before the rights issue,
(2.00 + (3 * 0.401)) / 4
(2.00 + 1.203) / 4
= 0.80075 EUR per share

That number then goes well below 0.80 EUR once you start using more realistic share prices.
 
From previous Bloomberg article:

"Spain’s stock market regulator will probably approve the share prospectus on Nov. 12 and Popular’s shares will start trading ex-rights two days later, Gonzalez-Robatto said. The new shares will begin trading on Dec. 6"

From previous Reuters article:

"The rights issue is due to take place between Nov. 14 and Nov. 28 with the new shares to begin trading on Dec. 6. "
 
The political aspect of the Bankia bailout - how much will holders of preference shares, hybrids and junior bonds lose when their "investments" are written down?

"UPDATE 3-Bankia junior debt loss seen below 50 pct - source"
www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/16/bankia-bondholers-idUSL5E8MGCMY20121116

"State-owned banks are negotiating with the European Union
for capital as part of an international bailout, the terms of
which will include inflicting a loss on people who in many cases
handed over their life savings. The EU will rule on the banks' proposals on Nov. 28."
 
Some possible timing on the (next) Bankia bailout:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-...ks-fire-8000-transfer-first-bank-bailout-tran

"European authorities will transfer 35 billion euros to Spain's state bank rescue fund on Dec. 15 in exchange for massive layoffs at Spain's four nationalised banks, including state-rescued Bankia, El Pais newspaper reported on Sunday.

"The cash injection from European bailout funds will be disbursed to troubled Spanish banks two weeks after it is paid into Spain's bank restructuring fund, or FROB, the paper said."
 
Bankia update:

The shares have crashed to 0.6690 EUR as at the close on Monday 3 December, after reaching an intraday low of 0.6110.

In terms of finding out the precise details of the recapitalization, Thursday 20 December looks like a key date.

"Four Spanish banks to need 1.5 bln eur in EU funds-minister"

www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/03/spain-banks-idUSL5E8N3I6920121203

"Their recapitalisation plans are due to be approved by the Bank of Spain by Dec. 20."
 
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