Spain's bailout request- Crash or Rally on Monday??

Will Spain's declaration they need bailout loan money cause a panic crash or a rally?

  • Crash 3-4%

    Votes: 8 24.2%

  • Rally 3-4%

    Votes: 25 75.8%
  • Total voters
    33
Quote from spanish89:

Oooooooh i love re-reading this thread now to read all the posts from the foolish twerps and idiots who were thinking they were being smug posting their idiotic predicitions about how the market was going to rocket up on this news,
and how all my 'blunt and direct-language' analysis was wrong.....,
Just for everything i said to of once again, like every single day, of been spot on and correct,
and they all been totally wrong!! :D :cool: :p


Dow crashed 400points from its opening price as reality started setting in! :D

My VIX long shotup 60pips (3vix points/10% market move).

And im expecting to see a total crash of atleast 900 - 1,000points in the dow by friday's close in the panic leading into the greek election.


Already down 400, and so only need 500-600points more crash.
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No crash before the Fed Meeting.
Dass es verboten.

Potential gap down following Greece election would quickly retrace ahead of Fed Meeting in anticipation of some policy action. The Bearded One will probably say "ready to act at any given moment, blah, blah, blah."
 
Quote from Nubee:

Forgive my naivety, as I am new to trading...

Must be nice never losing. I look forward to that day.
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You must be new though mate, as you clearly dont know who i am do you....?? :D :cool: :p


Every other fool, mug and idiot on this website (with the exception of approx just 6 members) will spout nonsense jibberish and crap trying to make it seem like they are some kind of trading genius whos an expert in every way at trading, with the majority of them also actually being multi-millionaires (but who choose to spend their nights posting in forums rather than fucking sluts)... LOL

They will post endlessly giving their OPINIONS on market movements, news, what the market will do next day/week, on other peoples trades and trading styles.

They will also always without fail post AFTER a market move has happend claiming all about how they had made that trade and have now made huge amounts of money from it.


However what it is incredibly rare to find any of them being willing to/let aline consistently doing is live-calling all their trades IN-ADVANCE and confirming those trade entries mere seconds/minutes after they have entered the trade!! :)

You can lineup 20thousand traders, and yet will likely only find 1 of them who actually does that,
as the other 19,999 just are too foolish, unskilled, unsucessful, and unconfident in their own trading skill and ability to be willing to allow such transparency on themselves,
as they then could never makeup all their sucess stories anymore! :p



If you want to see what 55-60 profitable trades in a row look like,
every single of those trades live-called inadvance and then with post confirming my entry within seconds of making it (so everyone can see instantly what the market price was at the time i called my entry),
and almost all 55-60 of those trades complete with screenshots of my chart to try show and explain to others what analysis i used to make the trade entry and exit at those specific prices,
then just checkout my trading journals mate... :)


My 1st one reached 1,200pages long,
in it i livecalled every single trade i made over 13months from 2008-2009,
and over those 13months i earnt just under a 6,500% net profit return on my starting capital! :)


And my current journal, well check it out for yourself mate if you are interested.

Im an Opportunist-Only trader, not scalper or swing,
so i ONLY ever make trades when its extremely good opportunities,
and so subsequently i have extremely few trades which lose me money. :)

(I do have a few that lose me money, typically average 1 losing trader per every 60 profitable trade.
And with all the profitable trades averaging 60-85pips / and the 1 losing trade then ranging from 3pips-250pips)
 
Quote from flipside21:

No crash before the Fed Meeting.
Dass es verboten.

Potential gap down following Greece election would quickly retrace ahead of Fed Meeting in anticipation of some policy action. The Bearded One will probably say "ready to act at any given moment, blah, blah, blah."
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Exactly,
thats why im looking to cash in my long VIX trade on either Thursday evening or at some point on friday,
but not hold it into the weekend with the greek election.

As the gamble is too much to,
plus even if its anti-bailout party wins, the focus will then switch to fed and eu announcing they printing zillion pound notes to quantatively ease all of europe! :cool: :p



However i see spanish and italian bond yields both smashing over 7% during this week in the anticipation and panic of greek election weekend,
and so see down crashing 500-600points more.

(So most importantly see VIV getting close to the 33-36 level before weekend with any luck)
 
Why Markets No Longer Rally on European Bailouts
Reuters | June 11, 2012 | 06:00 PM EDT

So much for the relief rally.

After bouncing overnight on news that Europe had stitched together a $125 billion rescue for Spain's banks, gains for global stocks and the euro fizzled.

Bailouts for debt-strapped countries have provided a short period of comfort for investors, one that quickly gets eroded by fear about Europe's vicious circle of slow or no growth and growing debt burdens. On Monday, the speed of that reversal was quicker than ever.

Greece's first bailout in 2010 sparked a healthy 1.3 percent rally in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 stock index on the following day, but subsequent rescues fostered more muted responses.

The reaction after Spain's bank bailout has been the most downbeat of the lot, particularly given the size of the package and the speed with which gains were wiped out. U.S. stocks fell into negative territory within an hour of Monday's opening bell and then continued dropping.

"Even the most inconsolable and bearish analysts were taken aback at how decisively markets rejected this bailout," said Richard Franulovich, currency strategist at Westpac Securities.

U.S. stocks fell 1.3 percent, and the euro shed 0.2 percent, while Europe's leading index of blue-chip shares and Spain's IBEX 35 declined.

The four prior bailouts — for Greece and Ireland in 2010, Portugal in 2011 and Greece again in 2012 — showed the euro's rallies fade within a month, while stocks were mixed, based on various factors.

In the credit default swaps market , where investors take out insurance against the risk of sovereign default, the pattern has been similar. The cost of buying insurance against Greek, Irish or Portuguese default tended to drop after the first two weeks as investors took the bailout news as a sign of relief, only to rise back to pre-bailout levels or higher within a month.

After initially falling, the cost of insuring $10 million of Spanish government debt against default rose to 595 basis points, or $595,000 per year for five years, financial information firm Markit said. That is just off a record high.

Investors eager for a fix that involves more European Central Bank support and a common European bond market say Europe's piecemeal approach to the crisis is scaring markets.

"We've been getting what I call 'bread crumbs,"' said James Dailey, portfolio manager of TEAM Financial Asset Management. "What we need is a comprehensive European solution. Until we see something massive from the ECB, it's not addressing the issue. The problem is not liquidity, it's solvency."

Vicious Feedback Loop

Investors worry that higher borrowing costs for Spain, Italy and others will shut these governments out of international capital markets entirely.

Yields could rise further if a Greek election next weekend produces a government that opts to abandon the euro rather than stick to fiscal austerity, or if Spain suffers another downgrade.

Markets also fear that the bank rescue will add some 10 percent to Spain's debt-to-output ratio, which is expected to near 80 percent by the end of the year.

The end result could be one in which European Union leaders are forced to follow the bailout of Spanish banks with one for the Spanish government.

"For the Spanish economy as a whole, there has been no debt relief," Franulovich said. "This is what happened to Ireland. The banks are in healthier shape today, but the sovereign is in real trouble."

In fact, a report by Spain's central bank showed Spanish banks were the main buyers of Spanish sovereign debt last year, essentially making the government dependent on the banks it is now trying to help.

"The Spanish government bails out Spanish banks, and Spanish banks bail out the Spanish government," Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told Reuters. "It's voodoo economics. It is not going to work, and it's not working."

Spanish 10-year government bonds had one of their worst days in two months on Monday. The yield rose to 6.51 percent, a clear sign that the market lacks confidence in the measures taken.

"Inevitably, the markets have started to look beyond Spain to other vulnerable members of the euro zone," said Gavan Nolan, Markit's director of credit research, due to fear that other countries will seek similar rescues for their banks.

Of most consequence is No. 3 euro zone economy Italy, which has the world's third-largest sovereign debt market. Italy's CDS widened to 550 basis points on Monday.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said the ever-growing crisis should convince policymakers to think bigger in addressing the crisis.

"Investors are getting tired," he said. "There's only so much plaster you can put on a crumbling wall."
 
We now just all need to come together and do whatever it takes to force the VIX to spike back upto the 85-90 levels like those glorious, incredible wonderful few weeks back in autumn 2008!!! :D :cool: :p
 
Quote from spanish89:


However i see spanish and italian bond yields both smashing over 7% during this week in the anticipation and panic of greek election weekend,
and so see down crashing 500-600points more.
More...

What if they stick it to you?
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

What is going on bears? The market is green. Where is your promise of hitting bids, crashing markets, etc? Are you shitting your pants instead?
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So much bad news coming out but the markets really are not selling off that hard. If fact we have seen a couple of nice up moves in the last few days. Maybe these are the lows unless something really unexpected happens over the weekend with Greece.

I had expected the market to be selling off more this week before the weekend but i guess not. Probably best place to be here is in cash.
 
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