SP500 Only

[SPX Blaster]

If all you do is map out the big macro price action patterns, you aren't going to do any better than 50/50. About 90% of the calls I have made this year on ET and TV were profitable. That wasn't luck. It starts with the micro (daily, intra day) price action analysis, then you can see how that sits within the larger pattern.

krugman doesn't want me to spam his thread. He seems to have no problem touting his 90% win rate on mine. I guess he's just better than me. I might as well just flip a coin to make my decisions.

 

[Overnight]

The lunar week of Sep 15th for the S&P (and, well, all equity markets) will be dependent on the data released and talked about on Wednesday of that week.

My take. .25% rate cut, markets up. .50% rate cut, markets up even more. Standing pat, markets way down. Rate increase by .25%? Markets wayyyy down.

Then comes the press conference 30 minutes later. THAT is what will drive the short-term movement until Friday IMHO. The forward view.

 

[SPX Blaster]

https://russellscycles.blogspot.com/

 

[SPX Blaster]

i have long side bias myself, i only see the sp going up from here and the duration of the run would typically be at least a few weeks.

Hi Mark,

Here I'll post my long term cycle. There was a high in SP in late July. My cycle work shows a high late August or September. I believe the cycle high came early (late July). I do not think new highs will be made, but rather the early August lows will be met or surpassed by November. Just because the market has rallied to near the July high does not mean the cycle failed. The cycle does not predict that the SP will go down in a straight line. There are cycles within cycles.

 

[SPX Blaster]

Here is shorter term cycle of SP500. It suggests stock indexes will decline the week of Sep 15.

 

[SPX Blaster]

Here is shorter term cycle of SP500. It suggests stock indexes will decline the week of Sep 15.

View attachment 208711

Let me remind those who have looked at my post. My cycles are NOT a system that tells you when to buy and sell. It is a form of analysis that may provide an edge.

I don't know what the Sp price will end this week at. I will look to short, but I want to see some confirmation price is moving lower on hourly charts and then look for retrace on 5 or 15 minute chart before entry.

 

[krugman25]

My cycles are NOT a system that tells you when to buy and sell

But you are buying and selling based on the bias of your cycles right? Is that not the same thing?

 

[SPX Blaster]

But you are buying and selling based on the bias of your cycles right? Is that not the same thing?

If SP price continues move higher next week, then the short trade is scraped.

 

[Overnight]

If SP price continues move higher next week, then the short trade is scraped.

Dude, lunar moon cycles will not save you. Trump just tweeted China positive, the ECB is tomorrow, and the Fed is going to cut next week. Bail on your shorts.

 

[formikatrading]

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't your cycles actually suggest a move higher into Sept. 14 and then lower?

If SP price continues move higher next week, then the short trade is scraped.