SP500 - High Probability predictions for 2016

[Stewie]

Do you really believe I will still tell you anything? I discuss with people who respect other people and at least don't twist words. That's why I switched to PM's. To avoid people like you.

No, I never did, hence it wasn't even a question about trading mechanics.

Wow... yet another poster claiming how awesome the conversations are in PM. @Baron really needs to create a superelitetrader.com for the cream of the crop. Since there are so few of you, he probably couldn't generate enough traffic to pay for the bandwidth you use, so at least admit that you need us peasants to keep clicking so that the revenue stream that comes from us can pay for the costs so you can have your private party.

Which is it though? Either you never share anything, since that is what all you experts always claim, or really, its just that us poor guys aren't worthy enough to get in on it? I'm lost because the story keeps changing.

 

[schizo]

Blah, blah, blah.

@Stewie,

Let it rest, man. Otherwise, it will just go round and round like a rabid dog chasing after his own tail. The dude is a "guru", not a trader.

On a closing note, I would like to note that, having traded for over 20 years, I've come to a realization that there are essentially 3 types of animals that solicit the trading world--as well as this forum.

1) Traders: these are the ones who fight on the frontline day in and day out.
2) Trading coaches: these are the ones who largely accept the mantle of the sage, always dispensing their platitudes.
3) System vendors: these are the ones always obsessed with backtesting.

None of them are necessarily bad in and of themselves. It's only when one encroaches on the other that creates a friction. In my opinion, @i am nobody belongs to the second camp. As such, he should just stick to his platitudes.

 

[i am nobody]

In my opinion, @i am nobody belongs to the second camp. As such, he should just stick to his platitudes.

You are really pathetic. It is clear that you never read my postings, so you have no clue who I am or what I do. You know nothing about me.
All you know about me is what you think. Things you make up or guess. Are you family from Marketsurfer?
Your comments on me are pure platitudes, typical for people who have no real arguments or proof about what they insinuate.
Put all your trades on a chart and watch it. Going long in tops, going short, 2 minutes later long and 5 minutes later again short. Almost hilarious. Trends in markets don't change that quickly. I showed clearly that you missed everything there was on friday. And making 70 points in a month is not an achievement at all. That's merely 3 points a day.

 

[fortydraws]

It is clear that you never read my postings

There is a difference between reading and understanding. Most read and see only words, while a few read and see ideas. My hope for you is that you will continue to write for the latter, and come to ignore the former.

 

[fortydraws]

Technique used to predict the above remains private, don't ask.

Here's one based on some of the trend modeling I've been working on. This is not a prediction, really, but it is one of my trend scenarios based on math (as I have come to use it) that is operative for tomorrow: ES rally into the 1890's early (early means anytime starting with the globex open - it is akin to "first"), to be followed by a trend move down into the 1820's. Not a prediction, but one scenario of three that frames my "what am I to do" when the market opens tomorrow. I throw it out there because it is the most extreme of the three lol.

Remember, I'm an uneducated blue collar rube, so please take this post for what it is meant to be: entertainment purposes only!

 

[schizo]

And making 70 points in a month is not an achievement at all. That's merely 3 points a day.

Here's the FACT:

1) In the month of December, I traded 13 days and made 90.25 points. That's an average of nearly 7 points per day. Remember, I've set out to make 6 points per day.

$300 Daily Challenge (12/09/15 - 12/31/15)

• Winning Days (>= $300): 8
• Losing Days (< $300): 5

This Month's Trade Stat

No. of Trading days: 13
No. of days above $300 (Sum of 8 days / $300)*: 15
No. of days between $0 - $300: 4
No. of Losing days below $0: 1
Cumulative P/L: +90.25

* Of the days that met the daily objective of 6 points or $300, 3 days ended with a profit of 6 points or more, 4 had 10 points or more, and 1 made over 25 points, resulting in a profit of 89 points. That was divided by 6 to come up with this figure.

2) In the month of January, I've traded 11 days so far and here's the complete breakdown by each trading day.

Day1: 10.75 points
Day2: 11.50 points
Day3: -3 points
Day4: 21 points
Day5: -5.75 points
Day6: 15.5 points
Day7: 7.25 points
Day8: 42.50 points
Day9: -6.5 points
Day10: -3.25 points
Day11: 8.25 points

Cumulative: 98.25 points or 8.93 per day.

 

[toc]

SPY will see 140-150 this year. However, the snap back will be quick as Bear markets are fast and Bulls slog over time.

 

[Stewie]

Here's the FACT:

Wow... I almost got turned on reading this word. Its something you don't get to read too much of at ET. Everything is up to interpretation, reading between the lines, etc etc etc. One alias uses another alias to "vouch" for their integrity, and of course the classic line of argument if you don't see/understand something, then it must be you! With this kind of logic, most traders on ET should believe in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy and argue about who would win a battle between Batman and Superman since all of these characters are just as plausible based on what little most people think is necessary to show when trying to prove a point.

Its a shame that there are so little facts shared on ET, and that so little of what is posted is actually scrutinized to gauge its validity.

 

[onemoreshot]

I almost got turned on reading this word.

Really stew?

 

[schizo]

I really, really don't understand why I need to even provide these numbers when he refuses to give his. But have you not noticed the recurring pattern? He constantly resorts to baseless claim that I've been losing money based solely on my last Friday's performance. But he totally neglects to see that I've made over 40 points on Wednesday. Go figure.

Also why does he keep saying the range for Friday was 60 points, when the majority of that occurred in the pre-market? The range for the RTH session was 30 points!