No one can accurately predict the long term with 97% certainty or what you said previously. This forum is full of long term forecasters and bottom pickers. How can you predict what's going to happen 3000 miles away that's going to move the market 3 weeks from now? We've had a long bull market here since early 2009, it's likely made allot of people think they are much smarter than they really are.
SP500 - High Probability predictions for 2016
- Thread starter Autodidact
- Start date
The difficulty to predict grows exponentially in time. The accuracy diminishes exponentially in time.
Most of the predictors are even not able to be profitable in medium long term. If they would be profitable they would not post here, and surely not about 12 month predictions, as they would have real life experiences about probabilities, predictions and accuracy.
And if they would be profitable they would know that these 12 month predictions are complete nonsense.
If you can predict just 24 hours in advance with a 97% accuracy, you can build up huge positions and be rich in a very short time. This short period is much easier than predicting 12 months ahead.
Trading only 1000 contracts a day in the ES would generate somewhere between 250 and 300 million dollars of profit. And this without compounding. This shows how ridiculous these predictions are.
Most of the predictors are even not able to be profitable in medium long term. If they would be profitable they would not post here, and surely not about 12 month predictions, as they would have real life experiences about probabilities, predictions and accuracy.
And if they would be profitable they would know that these 12 month predictions are complete nonsense.
If you can predict just 24 hours in advance with a 97% accuracy, you can build up huge positions and be rich in a very short time. This short period is much easier than predicting 12 months ahead.
Trading only 1000 contracts a day in the ES would generate somewhere between 250 and 300 million dollars of profit. And this without compounding. This shows how ridiculous these predictions are.
Speak for yourself only...
But anyway, you don't get the point of posting a prediction. It isn't important for the predictor (he either plays it anyway, so posting it is irrelevant or not playing it and posting it is also irrelevant) but for the readers. You see if you found someone who does predictions with a high probability, you might decide to act on those predictions and YOU make some money, not the predictor.
And obviously prediction and trading are 2 different and not necessary correlating businesses...
Or you might LOSE on that prediction. If you start to trade on advice of others you should stop "trading" immediately. Especially if it is an internet anonymous advice. Maybe the predictor just wants you to put on the counterside. After all he should find an idiot to take the loss of which he can make the profit. Have you any proof about the qualifications of the predictor?
Was ET about trading or about predicting? Google Madame Soleil.
You should read up on Dr. Michael Burry. Fucking hedge funds played his online predictions... not to mention he eventually made a few pennies for himself too...
And ET is about to have a jolly good time...
Enjoy Michael Lewis books? What's your thought on hft?You should read up on Dr. Michael Burry. Fucking hedge funds played his online predictions... not to mention he eventually made a few pennies for himself too...
And ET is about to have a jolly good time...
I think the predictors on ET are not of the same level as Dr. Michael Burry. But maybe for you that's a detail.
Till today I could not find anyone who could improve my returns with their advice or predictions.
Just one word of caution: don't provoke others who might not share your views by challenging them to "make a bet". Had you not made such an inflammatory remark, all this brouhaha wouldn't have amounted to anything.
With that said, I'm moving on. Good trading y'all!
You're a short term trader that depends solely on your own method. But I have a few friends and acquaintances that either invest or trade stocks mid term, so they would find it beneficial to at least consider a prediction of a potentially top heavy equity market. After all why stay in a market when you can sell high and reload at lower valuations?