SP500 DOWN to 2500 and then to 2200

[S2007S]

I felt the same way end of January 2018 like now. But Fed didn't print at that time

My prediction
profits will be flat next year.
S&P will hit 4000. P/E will be 30. Analysts will say its cheap.
Applle will see -10% earnings. Shares will reach $500
Fed will say valuation are reasonable and will make 3 cuts during the year. Will print more than $100 bln per month by the end of the year. Balance sheet will reach 6 trln by the end of the year

Wow 4000, I feel I should up you and go 4398, I dont think there is a prediction on wallstreet for s$p 4000. Earnings would have to catapult to the stratosphere to get s$p 4000. Aside from that apple at 500 and a 2 trillion market cap! Yikes. Apple would have to sell 250-300 million iphones a year to keep up a market cap like that along. No company can be that perfect. But with the fed printing tens of billions of dollars anything is possibe...
This will be the biggest liquidity fed fueled bubble the world has ever seen.

 

[S2007S]

This guy has a prediction for 3950, a 22% surge



BTIG’s Julian Emanuel believes 2020 will be milestone year.

With the major indexes kicking off Christmas week at fresh all-time highs, he’s not ruling out a 22% surge in the S&P 500.


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/24/sp-...un-to-almost-4000-in-2020-julian-emanuel.html

 

[SunTrader]

Think kashirin was being tongue in cheek with how fed free money gets thrown around so casually. And so often.

 

[ironchef]

No offense guys, why are you so upset when you are printing money trading with the bull market?

You could be printing almost non stop since Mar 2009. Best hedging strategy is not to short the SPY but to join the bull run and keep taking some of the profits off the table as you print.

Keeping a certain combination of cash and equity is essentially equivalent to a protective put. Of course you have to keep adjusting the combination as the market moves.

Merry Christmas.

 

[Nine_Ender]

They just keep upping their forecasts

More free money in 2020.

My retirement fund is up a whopping 26% this year. Incredible right. Maybe next year it does 38%? 47? Fu*k maybe even 79%, the free money is pouring in. Unlimited upside!!!!!!

Now 3600 for s$p

I don't believe you cleared 26% unless your "retirement fund" is small. You are just far too cynical and bearish to hold that position. You've been posting about "greedy" people long markets all year.

 

[S2007S]

I don't believe you cleared 26% unless your "retirement fund" is small. You are just far too cynical and bearish to hold that position. You've been posting about "greedy" people long markets all year.

I have a separate retirement account with 3 funds in it. I have upped the account over the last year and a half putting away more this year into it than previous years and yes it's up nearly 26%. Why would I make this up, this account of course is strictly long at all times. I was thinking of selling the three funds in September but didnt. If the markets rally more than 10% in the first quarter I will sell all 3 funds and go into bonds, wait for a drop and go back in after a pullback.

 

[Nine_Ender]

I have a separate retirement account with 3 funds in it. I have upped the account over the last year and a half putting away more this year into it than previous years and yes it's up nearly 26%. Why would I make this up, this account of course is strictly long at all times. I was thinking of selling the three funds in September but didnt. If the markets rally more than 10% in the first quarter I will sell all 3 funds and go into bonds, wait for a drop and go back in after a pullback.

Your posts on this site and what you are actually doing apparently is inconsistent in nature. Basically, if you are holding money in your retirement account 100% long that runs counter to what you post on this site regularly. In fact, you may have a much saner approach overall then how you portray yourself on here ( still doesn't totally negate the lunacy of holding triple etfs like SOXS more then a few days against trend, but let's give you the benefit of a doubt you aren't putting much down on the crazy gambles ).

In some ways, your trading activity is hedged by your retirement account activity ( and vice versa in a bear market ). Of course, all that is subject to the relative amounts involved. In the interests of disclosure, you might want to refrain from calling everyone "greedy" when you are in fact taking the same "greedy" approach in your retirement funds. Which btw is the correct approach imo until the trend up stops or a catalyst occurs to end the bull move.

 

[vanzandt]

If the markets rally more than 10% in the first quarter I will

If the markets rally 10% in Q1 2020.... I'll kiss your ass at Wall and Broadway.... at lunchtime... on a Friday.... and ring a friggin bell.