SP500 back to $3300 by end of month

Market recovery is not ridiculous after the swan event is under control.

It is more of a matter of how long it will take. Earnings and economic growth expectations will.all come in due to 1Q and 2Q Corona hit. Will take a other Q to wash out the shit. Target June - Aug to be higher than we are now.....just wont know how much so sit back and enjoy the ride.
 
Is it me or is it clear who the bulls (bagholders) are in this thread. It's like they are trying to convince themselves more than anything. Banks and hedge funds can afford to ride this out. They don't care if it falls. The head of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund (the largest in the world) said that he didn't care about market corrections like Brexit because he was thinking on a ultra long term time horizon. They can afford it. You retail traders cannot.

Somebody already beautifully pointed something out: "Do you really think we go from a Coronavirus situation that still has no end in sight not to mention a massive correction after an 11-year bull run, and then subsequently reverse and start and another bull run (i.e. recovery) after only a few weeks.

The best case bagholders have is a slow bleed instead of the likely femoral artery bleed that is coming should this not have any sign of getting better in a couple weeks.
 
I went to cash in my wife's 401k on Feb 21. She had max matching on company funds which is free money, but the shares have dropped 20% since then. I'll get back to matching once the shares take another 10% shit and ride out any vola.

You gotta be f*cking insane to think this is over. -GDP for at least two quarters. Imagine the YoY comps on AAPL, GOOGL, etc. The sheer number of bankruptcies that are going to hit the dry ship, freight, E&P, shale... holy shit! There are no immune sectors. New home sales will plummet 20-30%. Existing? LOL. The haircut on ANYTHING requiring points (over FHA) is going to lose at least 15%.
 
MKTrader said:
I've already said a new ATH this month is ridiculous and even the end of April would probably be a world record. That said, it's possible it could happen later in the summer if Corona dies out (like SARS did in the summer) and we have a violent recovery. The market is forward looking and doesn't necessarily care if this causes a 3-6 month recession and upsets a few niche industries (like cruise ships) for a while.

It's a weird crisis because it could turn into a nightmare or be like the common flu with unwarranted Y2K-type hysteria. If the latter case, investors/traders will say "now that was a stupid overreaction" and bring things back to the status quo in short order. Of course it could also end up being somewhere between between those two extremes.
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Obviously, you have your mind made up already about the market and how it "should" behave going forward--like everyone else.

Well, I don't dispute the fact this market is hysterical. In fact, it has always been hysterical, even in good times.

However, this market was long overdue for a correction, regardless of corona or not. I mean, 11 years of nonstop ATHs isn't exactly normal, is it? Hence, in my opinion, Corona was simply a shill, an excuse, and obviously a good one, for them to sell the market and clean house.
volente_00 said:
During the 1918 flu pandemic when 50 million people died the Dow fell 30%. Thats 2376 SPX if you want to extrapolate to today’s market

SPX will see 2870-2930


Unless bears shut it down here then we will see 3100 and 3340 this year


If we fail at 2870-2930 and then break 2350 this opens up a 1450-1500 touch
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You sounded so damn pessimistic just a month ago. Now you sound too damn optimistic. Do you not read the news? Italy, Spain, France, Germany. Czech...they're all shutting down. USA is slowly getting there. The world economy is now much bigger than when the Spanish Flu broke out. You truly think we'll only drop 30% and stop? Ludicrous.
 
MKTrader said:
Or not!!! This kind of stuff has been priced in during the last few weeks.
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Was anyone pricing in the China economic contraction projections, the true data of which will be released tonight at 10PM ET? Industrial production and retail sales y/y numbers? Limit down during overnight hours. The store closings and layoff are going to start to snowball, because people have the sniffles. Look at Nike, shutting down all stores. Hell, now people who had the virus and recovered cannot even shop at some places, so they can't spend money. This leads to more layoffs, which leads to less spending, more unemployment claims, etc etc etc.
 
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