SP500 back to $3300 by end of month

[Sekiyo]

Market has done half the road to bottom.
Usually there is like 4 legs down.
4th leg is around 1700.

Call me crazy if you want.
But I’ve been calling sub 2k,
While we were still above 3000.

 

[Sekiyo]

No, not at all. I believe that's the retrace where you sell it again.

Yes.
Around 2800.
430ish points from the low.

 

[FriskyCat]

Market has done half the road to bottom.
Usually there is like 4 legs down.
4th leg is around 1700.

Call me crazy if you want.
But I’ve been calling sub 2k,
While we were still above 3000.

Yeah around that 1700 (a little lower) get to the 2000/2008 highs. Russell (which is a garbage index lets be honest) already has a head start.

 

[FriskyCat]

Market has done half the road to bottom.
Usually there is like 4 legs down.
4th leg is around 1700.

Call me crazy if you want.
But I’ve been calling sub 2k,
While we were still above 3000.

If you go back on this forum to 2007, early 2008, I'll never forget that the most bearish prognostications turned out to be conservative. Now that was probably a bit overkill (down to 667), but maybe not. I certainly feel this is the most excessive and over hyped market I've seen in my 24 years.

 

[ensemble]

In terms of options order flow, overall net delta has been negative since Feb 21.

 

[Sekiyo]

In terms of options order flow, overall net delta has been negative since Feb 21.
View attachment 222169

Does it have any predictive power ?
I see it more as a descriptive statistics.
Could have told it just by looking at the chart.

Price went down = Bearish order flow.
To sell Delta is being bearish on the underlying.

 

[Nine_Ender]

If you go back on this forum to 2007, early 2008, I'll never forget that the most bearish prognostications turned out to be conservative. Now that was probably a bit overkill (down to 667), but maybe not. I certainly feel this is the most excessive and over hyped market I've seen in my 24 years.

You're seriously delusional. 2008 had a generational shock to the entire banking system brought on by white collar crooks. US valuations have been upper normal range for two years not excessive. Portions of the market are cheap after this correction, which back stops the overall market. Given time, this will be very clear, and some of you can go back to blaming the Fed and money printing.

 

[ensemble]

Does it have any predictive power ?
I see it more as a descriptive statistics.
Could have told it just by looking at the chart.

Price went down = Bearish order flow.
To sell Delta is being bearish on the underlying.

Hard to say, I have pretty limited data. But rising vol + heavily short delta positioning would imply further downside.

 

[MKTrader]

Market has done half the road to bottom.
Usually there is like 4 legs down.
4th leg is around 1700.

"Usually" based on what? We're talking about a sample size of like 2 or 3 major bear markets, right?

 

[S2007S]

Market has bottomed on friday on maximum fear and panic as Trump declared a national emergency. The liquidity has been used to start closing shorts 'en masse by the big boys.

In the next 2 weeks, markets will recover and SP500 will end the month of March at $3300. First two days of the week might be sideways or slightly down, but after that we will go only up, day after day, printing gains until SP500 reachs $3300 in about 2 weeks time.

3300 in 2 weeks???

You really think that...hahah

You think the markets go from a historical bull market of 10 years to an immediate bear market in 3 weeks and back to new highs and the start of a new bull market ? Not happening.

First off in the next 2 weeks if this virus doesnt slow down and they quarantine the entire country you will see the s$p drop straight through 2000!!!!
If they quarantine the entire world for more than a month you will see the s$p drop straight through 1500. Forget about resistance and support levels, those will be non existent with fear ripping through the financial markets here and abroad.