ah hahahahahahaha. US GDP going to contract by 3-5% minimum. This of course excludes the rest of the world. You meth heads are hilarious.
He knows himself, conservative, probably owes alimony.
I agree. And @dozu888 is saying same (finally we are in agreement lol) - we should see more pain and the earnings may bottom us out. But I don't expect V shaped recovery, this wound may take time to heal. Also, baby boomers may decide to stay away from stocks even though there's no alternative. I will be selling pops and trying to re-position lower for long term portfolio.
As Dave Landry says - "All predictions are about the future and a lot of sh*t can happen between now and then" Don't marry your bias.
Seriously. These guys calling for a return to all time highs AFTER the market already was the most overvalued in history. So IF this thing ever recovered those levels with negative GDP, then what???
Bagholders need the encouragement to keep holding which is what the reflexive bear market rally will do pretty shortly IMHO.
Most overvalued in history based on what? Valuations were very rich, but if you look at a basket of them, the market was more overvalued before the tech bubble. Here's one of the clearest examples.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
3015 is the 61.8....pretty close to that 3040 level that was significant last year. Wouldn't be surprised to see a move up to that area, then a very long term down trend
The question you then have to ask (as a prospective student) is "Would I be willing to trade bigger size than he does...and if not, how much would I really make in the long-term since most of the time we're in bullish/flat markets with sub-20 VIX levels"? As far as I know, he doesn't post any long-term performance stats.
I would not be surprised if we got there, but would you buy there? We need a bear market, not just a correction. We need some fear back in the markets. The buy-the-dip crowd hasn't been flushed out yet, imho.Yes, I see 3050 area in ES. That would tag a flattening 200 MA.
I would not be surprised if we got there, but would you buy there? We need a bear market, not just a correction. We need some fear back in the markets. The buy-the-dip crowd hasn't been flushed out yet, imho.