Markets crash down, not up. Optimistically we'll be recovered by July-August if we reversed right now but more likely we'll see a bit more downside action before the recovery.
SP500 back to $3300 by end of month
- Thread starter orbit23
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Take a deep breath, folks --
a run on staples (which we have seen) is not the same as a break in the supply chain.
Big ol' difference.
The first (which, again, we have actually seen) is *extra* demand -- demand beyond the ordinary. It will consume some disposable income, but that will affect highly elastic demand items like movies and First Class versus Coach travel. But buying stupid-large amounts of t.p. is not going to make a dent in your monthly cereal or carrots or gasoline budget. (Nor will if affect your annual consumption of t.p. -- unless you're *really* nervous.
)
The second -- a supply chain break -- that is much more serious, as we don't double our milk purchases because the store shelf was empty last week. Nor do we increase our breakfasts, our gasoline gallons, our Going Out To The Movies nights, etc...... So, those purchases lost to some supply chain break are simply *gone*. (Notice though that gallons of paint not purchased in March may indeed be purchased in July -- same with refrigerators, blue jeans, maybe those new golf clubs....)
Think about which can be postponed and which simply *die*, before you make the trade.
a run on staples (which we have seen) is not the same as a break in the supply chain.
Big ol' difference.
The first (which, again, we have actually seen) is *extra* demand -- demand beyond the ordinary. It will consume some disposable income, but that will affect highly elastic demand items like movies and First Class versus Coach travel. But buying stupid-large amounts of t.p. is not going to make a dent in your monthly cereal or carrots or gasoline budget. (Nor will if affect your annual consumption of t.p. -- unless you're *really* nervous.
)The second -- a supply chain break -- that is much more serious, as we don't double our milk purchases because the store shelf was empty last week. Nor do we increase our breakfasts, our gasoline gallons, our Going Out To The Movies nights, etc...... So, those purchases lost to some supply chain break are simply *gone*. (Notice though that gallons of paint not purchased in March may indeed be purchased in July -- same with refrigerators, blue jeans, maybe those new golf clubs....)
Think about which can be postponed and which simply *die*, before you make the trade.
S&p will drop right below 2000!!! And even 1500 and maybe 1000 if this pandemic really cause more fear than what it has already in the last 2 weeks. If they shut the entire global economy down to eradicate the virus markets will drop 50% or more across the world!!!!!
ah hahahahahahaha. US GDP going to contract by 3-5% minimum. This of course excludes the rest of the world. You meth heads are hilarious.
Literally lol'd and my wife is like wtf
Traders, I correctly called the near exact top here January 24th, my only top call ever, nailed it
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/market-top-here-because-tvix-1-year-high-volume-today.339756/
My bear call:
This is just the beginning of the biggest crash since 08. Not only will we Easily take out dec 24 '18 lows but we'll sell off well into next year.
I wish I knew how to trade S&P puts, I am not an options trader. I do know exactly how to trade inverses though so I'm trading TVIX SQQQ now.
And we'll have dead cat bounces and bull traps along the way. As I've told my traders since November, I'm ignoring dumbass talking heads saying "buy quality oversold stocks" f'ing morons.
Note taking heads refuse to cover instruments that made me 7k profit this last few weeks like UVXY SQQQ TVIX etc, instead foolishly telling people to buy gold and utilities etc... morons. Wonder what bullish bottom bs calls they'll make next.
Yes we may get relief rallies like Friday short squeeze, possible bull trap up mon tue, but markets will downtrend for months. And yes come dec I'll point out this post .... let's potentially profit from the drop, cuz "there be dragons here". Dracarus
Rationale:
Lots of dead people from virus can't spend $ this year
Consumer spending nosedives, crushing earnings
Stock prices at 6-20 earnings multiplies like tech no longer valid pricing, prices nosedive
Fear causes butterfly effect and big recession
The sht has just begun to hit the fan, watch out belowwww.... burn baby burn
And fwiw I'm posting here & sponsoring and starting my "bear grows a pair" journal because I want to be held publicly visible for my trades in the sincere hope of finally trading enough size, profitably, to stop having to be an educator #truth
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I don't know what is with this sky is falling talk. Even if it is like 9/11 this won't go that that fast. If you really think so, you can make 100x your money. Just buy those SPX 1000 puts.
Lol, why is it bad to be an educator once you are consistently profitable and have something to teach?
I don't claim to be consistently profitable, that's a bs phrase used by dishonest educators..... I have ups and downs like everyone else ... I simply teach lessons learned, with no performance or profitability claims. That sells less, but it's honest. Call me an anti-guru lol.
I like teaching thousands, but after 20 years I'm like wtf start trading size, already.
I like teaching thousands, but after 20 years I'm like wtf start trading size, already.
There's a reason it was your only on top call ever. You got lucky. I've been saying this on twitter for a long time: you can keep calling tops and eventually be right, you can keep calling bottoms and eventually be right. I know you haven't constantly been calling tops but what really matters is whether you went in with all 8 of your testicles (I didn't, I've never experienced a market like this and I have never gone in with all my balls...)
Stop thinking calling the top or bottom is useful. You can use EMA crosses, go in balls deep (2018, 2020), make a few million, then fuck off for a few years till the next EMA cross