SP500 back to $3300 by end of month

nooby_mcnoob said:
Over here the roads are bare, people aren't even walking outside. But I bet they have toilet paper...

Food prep is likely going to be the main method of transmission going forward, like TB Betty or whatever her name was.
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I experienced my first real encounter with the virus' effects yesterday. I had a meeting with a couple of people at a bank and neither shook my hand, and everyone at the table was ~2 meters apart at all times. I'm guessing this will be the norm until herd immunity is created via a vaccine sometime next year.

The stores are bare here as well. I have no need to panic buy, but I did buy 2-3 extra of everything I needed and some other stuff in case the supply chain disruption continues for a few months. Mostly so I don't have to eat 3 year old canned beans in a non-emergency. People were fighting over frozen pizzas in the food aisles and the checkout line was wrapped around the store. I've never seen anything like it. The Costco down the street had what appeared to be a line going across the MASSIVE parking lot for entry 2 days ago.

I'm left wondering what all these panic buyers think happens to frozen food if the grid goes down? This chaos is nonsensical. It doesn't help stores are not rationing food and supplies. I estimate we are around 2 months out before the supply chain for grocery stores is back to normal.
 
orbit23 said:
Market has bottomed on friday on maximum fear and panic as Trump declared a national emergency. The liquidity has been used to start closing shorts 'en masse by the big boys.

In the next 2 weeks, markets will recover and SP500 will end the month of March at $3300. First two days of the week might be sideways or slightly down, but after that we will go only up, day after day, printing gains until SP500 reachs $3300 in about 2 weeks time.
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Who on ET has tested positive or have symptoms? or knows anyone within 1 or 2 degrees of separation from you who does? Just Asking.
 
gaussian said:
I experienced my first real encounter with the virus' effects yesterday. I had a meeting with a couple of people at a bank and neither shook my hand, and everyone at the table was ~2 meters apart at all times. I'm guessing this will be the norm until herd immunity is created via a vaccine sometime next year.

The stores are bare here as well. I have no need to panic buy, but I did buy 2-3 extra of everything I needed and some other stuff in case the supply chain disruption continues for a few months. Mostly so I don't have to eat 3 year old canned beans in a non-emergency. People were fighting over frozen pizzas in the food aisles and the checkout line was wrapped around the store. I've never seen anything like it. The Costco down the street had what appeared to be a line going across the MASSIVE parking lot for entry 2 days ago.

I'm left wondering what all these panic buyers think happens to frozen food if the grid goes down? This chaos is nonsensical. It doesn't help stores are not rationing food and supplies. I estimate we are around 2 months out before the supply chain for grocery stores is back to normal.
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2 months out???

I'm thinking more like a week or 2. 2 months is way to long of a time frame to return to normalcy.
 
gaussian said:
Once earnings come we will feel the full force of the collapse.
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I agree. And @dozu888 is saying same (finally we are in agreement lol) - we should see more pain and the earnings may bottom us out. But I don't expect V shaped recovery, this wound may take time to heal. Also, baby boomers may decide to stay away from stocks even though there's no alternative. I will be selling pops and trying to re-position lower for long term portfolio.
As Dave Landry says - "All predictions are about the future and a lot of sh*t can happen between now and then" Don't marry your bias.
 
S2007S said:
2 months out???

I'm thinking more like a week or 2. 2 months is way to long of a time frame to return to normalcy.
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Consider that every week people are going to wipe out shelves. There will need to be a point that the stores can meet the panic demand with excess, and at that point things will turn around.

There is no way kroger et al. will have this fixed in 2 weeks. We are going on week 3 of near empty shelves out here. People will continue throw mountains of cash into whatever is on the shelf until either the pandemic is declared a nothingburger or supply greatly exceeds demand. I'm not an economist but I imagine if you plotted the supply/demand curve the place where "normalcy" returns is when absolute supply exceeds the purchasing power of the average person.

In terms of absolute normalcy if infection rates continue to mirror Italian infection rates we won't even be in an actual panic until April, and then who knows how long it will be before the medical system can take the burden caused by the virus. The longer Trump errs on the side of inaction the longer the panic will go on. I think "normalcy" won't happen until the CDC declares it a non-threat like the common flu. Schools here will remain shut down (fully remote) until at least next semester as of yesterday and people aren't even walking outside anymore. I seriously doubt 1-2 weeks will be enough to convince people everything is normal.
 
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orbit23 said:
Market has bottomed on friday on maximum fear and panic as Trump declared a national emergency. The liquidity has been used to start closing shorts 'en masse by the big boys.

In the next 2 weeks, markets will recover and SP500 will end the month of March at $3300. First two days of the week might be sideways or slightly down, but after that we will go only up, day after day, printing gains until SP500 reachs $3300 in about 2 weeks time.
More...
There's gonna be a lot of limit ups. I'd better remortgage my house and go all in
 
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