I have a couple of hours to kill before I close out my currently 50+ pt. winner per-contract in the weekly SP trade. I'm sure I'm just lucky! (LOL). This will be my last post on this site. I thought I could add value to some of the folks struggling. However, I didn't realize how thin my skin became since retirement. Too much sun I guess...forums aren't going to be in my future.
Here's my last rant on the the subject of trading. After this, I'm going to go hop on a charter flight with my buds to go see the series during the next week. Don't worry, I won't mention the E...D...G...E... word again. I see it's a psychotic drug for some of the posters.
There's little doubt the vast majority of people that attempt to trade, lose. The majority lose so the minority can have gains sufficient to justify the extensive research required along with the risk of time and money. That is, "above average returns".
The challenge then is not to avoid all the losing traits, (though I'm sure most of the things not to do are excellent), but to concentrate on the things that the minority of people do to win.
The first thing you need to do is convince yourself that the markets are not completely random. If the markets are completely random, no amount of research, emotional detachment, etc. will help. To continue to trade when you know the markets are random is to engage in gambling. Do you think that winning traders over a period of years gamble? I've been to Las Vegas many times and never put even a quarter in a slot machine.
Once you convince yourself the markets are not completely random, your search will take on new meaning. The challenge then becomes how do I locate non-random opportunities in the market so that I can exploit them? Once you've found a method for exploiting the ****, then the MMGT, and everything else is just a wrapper to ensure you are around long enough for the **** to be realized.
That's the direction I and many others that have pulled $1.98 from the markets have taken. I've looked for, found, measured, and developed strategies for pulling pieces of profits from the markets when non-random conditions have appeared. Will wars, weather, and other newsworthy events screw up possible non-random opportunities? No doubt about it. That's why the search can only be done on a probabilistic basis. You will never have absolute certainty in the markets. If this is stressful to you, stay out. If the idea of spending possibly years looking for a single non-random opportunity seems overwhelming, stay out. If you decide it's more fun to trade than to treat this as a business, then plan on losing whatever you put into your account.
If, after all this negativity, you decide you want to still get started, then here's a link to an article to help convince you that the markets are not completely random.
Good luck on the adventure...
http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_22/b3631125.htm
j/k