SP 500 Intraday swing
- Thread starter inves200
- Start date
Thank you for the inquiry Greeks.
The opening range various from one commodity, futures or stock to another. As a general principle it seems to work out "for now" that the 1st 10 minutes of the SPX gives a reliable reading of whether the buyers or sellers are in controll.
The confoirmation is half of the opening range time frame IN ADDITION to a price "delta" to use a greek phrase for it ;-) of 1-2pts depending on the bias of the market.
For instance, if I saw an opening range monday of 1278 to 1291, I would go long at 1292 or above IF it stayed above 1292 for AT LEAST 5 minutes. Also, I would be prepared to "scale in" / add more ES possiotns if it pulled back and sell out the higher priced possitions at BE. Scaling in is risky - in can cost a days profits about once in month. It pays far more than it costs as far as I can tell.
It is amazing how many times the first 10 minutes contains the day's high or low. It does so almost 20% of the time over the last few months, yet 10 minutes is about 2.5 of the time involved. Its not fool proof, just an indicator.
So, you asked the question just right, its TIME and PRICE to tetermine the opening range's trend.
The opening range various from one commodity, futures or stock to another. As a general principle it seems to work out "for now" that the 1st 10 minutes of the SPX gives a reliable reading of whether the buyers or sellers are in controll.
The confoirmation is half of the opening range time frame IN ADDITION to a price "delta" to use a greek phrase for it ;-) of 1-2pts depending on the bias of the market.
For instance, if I saw an opening range monday of 1278 to 1291, I would go long at 1292 or above IF it stayed above 1292 for AT LEAST 5 minutes. Also, I would be prepared to "scale in" / add more ES possiotns if it pulled back and sell out the higher priced possitions at BE. Scaling in is risky - in can cost a days profits about once in month. It pays far more than it costs as far as I can tell.
It is amazing how many times the first 10 minutes contains the day's high or low. It does so almost 20% of the time over the last few months, yet 10 minutes is about 2.5 of the time involved. Its not fool proof, just an indicator.
So, you asked the question just right, its TIME and PRICE to tetermine the opening range's trend.
Dear Greeks,
This intraday swing approach is based on auction market theory. (AMT), which does NOT use moving averages. This is based on where buyers and sellers have previous battled it out. If you woulda pulled up a 1 month SP chart and looked where resistance had previously been, you woulda seen a HUGE resistance at 1278-1280. Once breached, it became VERY stong support.
If you had shorted 1280 a month ago, say your possition went on to make 25 pts, only then erode to Zero, whould you not sell out there rather risking a loss? There were SO many long and medium term sellers who got out RIGHT THERE that almost all the sellers had concluded thier business and only buyers were left. Didn't the market jump exactly where the buyers had won the battle
Make sense now?
"market congestion" is where the bulk of the sales volume took place at a given price level and where buyers and sellers "duked" it out. Nobody beleives me that the markets can be read that clearly because they are addicted to "indicators" that sell books and seminars - which are openly scorned and laughed at by institutions and hedge funds.... which almost all use Auction Market Theory. Hummmmm.
If you were to try out X-trader (for 700/month PER instrument traded which is what Instutional Traders almost all use) you would see that the sales data is organized in a bell shapped curve IMMEDIATELY next to the price to indicate where the congestion is at and where a break out / break down is likely to occur.
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As for cystal balls ... its not that at all. Ive been whacked over the head by other people's "crystal ball" called AMT that I finally joined em. Its understanding that makets are purely composed of buyers and sellers of various time frames - there is not a single darn book promoter or seminar giver in ANY of the time and sales data the markets give out.
Don't be annoyed by what I am showing here for a month for free - adopt it as yor own. It cost me 2 years and enough money to feed a villiage for a few years to learn all this ... and adding OR and trend lines as my little addition to AMT. Belive it or not 10 pts ES is an average day using this method. Some days we start out misreading the trend at a -7 pts on a scale in gone bad, but even those ussually end up at break even by scalping our way for 1 pt here and there.
The LOUSY TRADER
This intraday swing approach is based on auction market theory. (AMT), which does NOT use moving averages. This is based on where buyers and sellers have previous battled it out. If you woulda pulled up a 1 month SP chart and looked where resistance had previously been, you woulda seen a HUGE resistance at 1278-1280. Once breached, it became VERY stong support.
If you had shorted 1280 a month ago, say your possition went on to make 25 pts, only then erode to Zero, whould you not sell out there rather risking a loss? There were SO many long and medium term sellers who got out RIGHT THERE that almost all the sellers had concluded thier business and only buyers were left. Didn't the market jump exactly where the buyers had won the battle
Make sense now?
"market congestion" is where the bulk of the sales volume took place at a given price level and where buyers and sellers "duked" it out. Nobody beleives me that the markets can be read that clearly because they are addicted to "indicators" that sell books and seminars - which are openly scorned and laughed at by institutions and hedge funds.... which almost all use Auction Market Theory. Hummmmm.
If you were to try out X-trader (for 700/month PER instrument traded which is what Instutional Traders almost all use) you would see that the sales data is organized in a bell shapped curve IMMEDIATELY next to the price to indicate where the congestion is at and where a break out / break down is likely to occur.
-----
As for cystal balls ... its not that at all. Ive been whacked over the head by other people's "crystal ball" called AMT that I finally joined em. Its understanding that makets are purely composed of buyers and sellers of various time frames - there is not a single darn book promoter or seminar giver in ANY of the time and sales data the markets give out.
Don't be annoyed by what I am showing here for a month for free - adopt it as yor own. It cost me 2 years and enough money to feed a villiage for a few years to learn all this ... and adding OR and trend lines as my little addition to AMT. Belive it or not 10 pts ES is an average day using this method. Some days we start out misreading the trend at a -7 pts on a scale in gone bad, but even those ussually end up at break even by scalping our way for 1 pt here and there.
The LOUSY TRADER
Aspenboy,
The first 10 minutes on an OR seems to work well enough for now. All ya can do is back test various 10-15-20-25 and 30 min Opening Ranges each week and see which is the the most accurate for present market conditions on a given instrument.
An opening range trend needs to be confirmed not only by price BEYOND that OR but by time beyond it also. An OR can be reversed in the same way it was established too. OR trading by itself makes for good home runs once in a while, but has large draw dawns in between times.
We use opening range trends till a trend line is broken (rencently this has been for 4-5 pts) which almost always happens at congestion areas from the last time the markets reached certain price levels. When it probes back to the OR, we may take it for another ride (for 3-pts) and MAYBE twice more (for 2 pts).
After that, it has failed to trend beyond a normal daily range, it just starts to look like a consolidation day and from there on scalping for 1 pt works best.
The first 10 minutes on an OR seems to work well enough for now. All ya can do is back test various 10-15-20-25 and 30 min Opening Ranges each week and see which is the the most accurate for present market conditions on a given instrument.
An opening range trend needs to be confirmed not only by price BEYOND that OR but by time beyond it also. An OR can be reversed in the same way it was established too. OR trading by itself makes for good home runs once in a while, but has large draw dawns in between times.
We use opening range trends till a trend line is broken (rencently this has been for 4-5 pts) which almost always happens at congestion areas from the last time the markets reached certain price levels. When it probes back to the OR, we may take it for another ride (for 3-pts) and MAYBE twice more (for 2 pts).
After that, it has failed to trend beyond a normal daily range, it just starts to look like a consolidation day and from there on scalping for 1 pt works best.
Dear LT,
I've been exposed to AMT for about six months. Although not a very long time I did study it intensively. I think it probably is the holy grail if you can fully understand it and use it to your advantage.
Your articles are the first I've seen that put AMT in real action with conviction. Thanks a lot.
By the way what is your plan after these 30 days?
Greeks,
I'm glad you are familiar with AMT. It is VERY, VERY difficult to understand to be sure. Ya gotta be genius to even really read up on the subject.
Quite frankly, I can't really understand most of it either. All I do is see if buyers are likely to win by watching for higher lows in a "cup pattern" on an intraday swing at a congestion area. The SP cash is much easier to discern this in than the ES.
As for after a month, I may offer a service at Collective2.com with a free trial and only pay if we make ya money that week thing for three months. As trading is a lonely livlihood, I might then start a very small trading co-op for live trading together here in the Las Vegas / Southern Utah area. Honestly, I want to prove to myself that I can do this new style consistantly in a forum where my calls are in real time, recorded by a 3rd party, and at least 80% constistant before I risk any more real money.
As far as I know, nobody has combined Opening Range and Trend Lines into Auction Market Theory using a cash index to predict ES moves. If its NOT gonna work, 19 more days of real time real world calls will shoot this all to heck. If it works, well, its really gonna work.
The LOUSY TRADER
I'm glad you are familiar with AMT. It is VERY, VERY difficult to understand to be sure. Ya gotta be genius to even really read up on the subject.
Quite frankly, I can't really understand most of it either. All I do is see if buyers are likely to win by watching for higher lows in a "cup pattern" on an intraday swing at a congestion area. The SP cash is much easier to discern this in than the ES.
As for after a month, I may offer a service at Collective2.com with a free trial and only pay if we make ya money that week thing for three months. As trading is a lonely livlihood, I might then start a very small trading co-op for live trading together here in the Las Vegas / Southern Utah area. Honestly, I want to prove to myself that I can do this new style consistantly in a forum where my calls are in real time, recorded by a 3rd party, and at least 80% constistant before I risk any more real money.
As far as I know, nobody has combined Opening Range and Trend Lines into Auction Market Theory using a cash index to predict ES moves. If its NOT gonna work, 19 more days of real time real world calls will shoot this all to heck. If it works, well, its really gonna work.
The LOUSY TRADER