Soymeal/Soyoil March 2011 spread

F

fpbtm

Hi,

I have bought the Soymeal/Soyoil March 2011 spread 2 weeks ago, and it's a big loser now.
This spread is almost as historically low level.
Do you think it may go up in the next weeks? (the seasonality shoud help).

Thanks for your advice

Fpbtm
 
Quote from fpbtm:

Hi,

I have bought the Soymeal/Soyoil March 2011 spread 2 weeks ago, and it's a big loser now.
This spread is almost as historically low level.
Do you think it may go up in the next weeks? (the seasonality shoud help).

Thanks for your advice

Fpbtm
More...

where your premium at
 
Well, those meal prices are relatively low for all oilseeds at the moment, rape, soy and even sunseed. Seeds and beans are not, and oils aren't either. What we know now is that you probably aren't going to get much early beans out of braz this year (if any), which means preassure on beans in feb. With any logistical problems, i.e. long line ups, you can count on demand going to North-America like last year. This will, all else equal, drive the crush margin lower. Weather or not that will drive meals up relative to oil, is another question. My guess is that your spread ain't that bad of a bet for early 2011 (unless you have bet the house - which you shouldn't). But if something will happen in the coming weeks, I don't know.
 
I've been watching this spread for a few days. The seasonality as you say is good this time of year, and historically the premium doesn't spend much time on the oil side, so your downside risk is lower down here. So if I start to see strength technically, I'm looking to go long. :D
 

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Hi,

Thanks a lot for your replies.
I will post details about my trade later today.
I think I will keep this trade open, with a stop just below the last bottom. Hopefully the spread could go up about 2000$.
Cheers

Fpbtm
 
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