Soybeans for 2017

Just because it doesn't show up on a chart doesn't mean it is non existent. Especially with beans. NOV beans haven't been planted yet, may not be planted at all, and if planted may be destroyed by drought or pests or disease. On top of that, they have to be exported to make it worth anybody's effort and investment. It takes a long while for my currency to affect your currency. Strong USD takes down the non USD buyers first and then there is nowhere for the USD sellers to go but down right along with them.
Are you sure these fiat currencies are such a good idea? If you want something stable to back up your currency why not soybeans? At one time we called them the IBM of CRB.
 
xandman said:
Link Please. I had the impression that chief commodity demand was primarily about the USD.
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As of the date of this post, the correlation between Soybeans and the Dollar Index was 10.

http://www.mrci.com/special/correl.php

If you performed PCA or some type of factor analysis on Soybean prices, the currency effect is likely in there on the demand side. On the supply side, larger factors are probably weather and substitution effects of other crops.
 
java said:
Just because it doesn't show up on a chart doesn't mean it is non existent...
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It's as if you are starting with an assertion and then trying to justify it. Better to let the data tell you the real story. When you've looked at enough charts, they start to sing to you what's really going on.
 
Trader13 said:
It's as if you are starting with an assertion and then trying to justify it. Better to let the data tell you the real story. When you've looked at enough charts, they start to sing to you what's really going on.
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ok, You're probably right, I stand corrected, but 180 days is just a heartbeat in the life of a bean. Germ to harvest is just a snapshot of decades. How would you even measure any commodity's correlation to the same dollar you are using to measure it? Doubt that will ever show up on a simple usd/zs chart. Carry on.
 
java said:
... 180 days is just a heartbeat in the life of a bean ...
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If you pull out from daily to a longer term analysis of weekly/monthly, you will see correlation and cointegration relationships that aren't apparent on the daily timeframe. From the perspective of an economist who writes articles for a living, this is useful. But from the perspective of a trader, especially a retail trader who is susceptible to drawdowns, the holding period of a futures trade generally doesn't exceed a few months. So choose the timeframe that aligns with your role and let the data do the talking.
 
Trader13 said:
If you pull out from daily to a longer term analysis of weekly/monthly, you will see correlation and cointegration relationships that aren't apparent on the daily timeframe. From the perspective of an economist who writes articles for a living, this is useful. But from the perspective of a trader, especially a retail trader who is susceptible to drawdowns, the holding period of a futures trade generally doesn't exceed a few months. So choose the timeframe that aligns with your role and let the data do the talking.
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I just stay in the eye of the storm where price bounces around about like an old pong game with almost impossible discernible correlation to anything lasting or real. Just a few pennies is all I need to fill my tooth. But if I look around, I'm still in the same eye of the same storm but it may have started in the Pacific fighting over a few pennies, and here I am now, same storm, same eye but while I was bickering it somehow ended up in the Indian Ocean. I only observe and rarely predict just as a hobby, and never to be bet on.
 

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