At 8:31 CST today I shorted the SOY (SU16), because of the following analysis:
- The COT Index was at 0 for 5 weeks and now is still at 1
- The Commercials are really short
- The Big players just stopped adding long positions
- CTAs are mostly neutral now (after big gains on trend following systems)
From agrimoney:
"Managed money, a proxy for speculators, cut its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from corn to hogs, by more than 60,000 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator.
That represented the first cut in a month in the net long - the extent to which long positions, which profit when values rise, exceed short bets, which benefit when prices fall.
And it was accompanied by a sharp drop in open interest –the number of live contracts - of nearly 200,000 contracts to 1.43m lots, implying a reversal of the inflows which had marked the sector, with enhanced weather concerns, and soft returns from equities, driving extra cash into agricultural commodities."
Even if statistically I am short to early (about 3 weeks), I think that after this big trend and big gains, the Professionals will help a lot by being stopped.
Would you still be long?
- The COT Index was at 0 for 5 weeks and now is still at 1
- The Commercials are really short
- The Big players just stopped adding long positions
- CTAs are mostly neutral now (after big gains on trend following systems)
From agrimoney:
"Managed money, a proxy for speculators, cut its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from corn to hogs, by more than 60,000 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator.
That represented the first cut in a month in the net long - the extent to which long positions, which profit when values rise, exceed short bets, which benefit when prices fall.
And it was accompanied by a sharp drop in open interest –the number of live contracts - of nearly 200,000 contracts to 1.43m lots, implying a reversal of the inflows which had marked the sector, with enhanced weather concerns, and soft returns from equities, driving extra cash into agricultural commodities."
Even if statistically I am short to early (about 3 weeks), I think that after this big trend and big gains, the Professionals will help a lot by being stopped.
Would you still be long?