In the future, be sure to also verify that not only has progress ceased on the one-hour chart, but that the intraday envelope on the five-minute chart has assumed the opposite trajectory.
South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West
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Monday / January 27, 2020 / 12:35 a.m. PST
Why did I just purchase a USDCHF binary option call contract?
Why did I just purchase a USDCHF binary option call contract?
- The market has calmed down since the initial burst of activity at the London open.
- The strike price was close enough for the contract to be worth $20, though it dropped down to approximately $14 by the time I could place the order.
- The 0.9700 strike price is just below the inner lower band of the intraday price range envelope.
- Expiry is just three and a half hours away, a much smaller window of opportunity for the trade to turn against me.
- Energy from the London session sent the pair north, so it is likely to continue on that trajectory.
- None of the economic data scheduled to be released this morning is expected to have high impact.
- It is not yet 2 AM PST, the usual dead time for the London session.
- It does not fit the planned protocol, which was to use the bands of the shoreline envelope as launch pads, NOT the bands of the riverbank or intraday envelopes. (This exception is being selectively made due to all the reasons listed above.)
I've placed an order to sell the EURGBP contract for $16 if I can get it. Sure, that's only a fraction of the full $45 value. But once I'm trading with a $100 account, I will only be purchasing one contract at a time anyway.
The numbers suggested to me that at 0.8417 EURGBP had reached a key level and that I should not expect it to drop much lower, if at all, anytime in the near future. I therefore adjusted my take-profit target to pocket my gains right here.
Anytime I make over a couple of bucks trading 0.01-sized lots in a traditional brokerage account, it is (for me) a significant trade. If I can make three or more trades like this on a daily basis, it might be enough to convince me to forego NADEX and take the safer but much slower route of growing my initial $100 trade balance via OANDA.
YIKES! GBPUSD just dropped all the way down to 0.8407. That was a surprise. However, on my new 60-minute chart, 0.8410 is a significant support level, so a drop to this neighborhood isn't really unusual. I went ahead and purchased a six-hour 0.8400 call contract worth $20 (less than six hours did not offer a large enough return). This is NOT part of my strategy. I am doing it merely to test the reliability of the new chart's parameters. (It is an experiment, not a part of my system.)
The numbers suggested to me that at 0.8417 EURGBP had reached a key level and that I should not expect it to drop much lower, if at all, anytime in the near future. I therefore adjusted my take-profit target to pocket my gains right here.
Anytime I make over a couple of bucks trading 0.01-sized lots in a traditional brokerage account, it is (for me) a significant trade. If I can make three or more trades like this on a daily basis, it might be enough to convince me to forego NADEX and take the safer but much slower route of growing my initial $100 trade balance via OANDA.
YIKES! GBPUSD just dropped all the way down to 0.8407. That was a surprise. However, on my new 60-minute chart, 0.8410 is a significant support level, so a drop to this neighborhood isn't really unusual. I went ahead and purchased a six-hour 0.8400 call contract worth $20 (less than six hours did not offer a large enough return). This is NOT part of my strategy. I am doing it merely to test the reliability of the new chart's parameters. (It is an experiment, not a part of my system.)
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USDCHF did not continue north. In fact, it dropped all the way down to test intraday support at 0.9697, below my strike price, so that my three-and-a-half-hour contract is now -$40 in the red. IF the pair is going to behave logically, it SHOULD bounce back as things die down and be in-the-money at expiry nonetheless. But of course, the market can do whatever it likes.
USDCHF did not recover...
Since USDCHF has already handed me a loss, I might as well conduct another experiment. My daily charts indicate that AUDJPY broke ultimate statistical support when it dropped below 73.76. Now that the five-minute chart is evidencing signs that the pair might me about to hook north, I'm curious to see if it remains above 73.60 for the next three-and-a-half hours.
Since I do not trust the way the market is behaving right now, I'm going to go ahead and pocket my $8.75 form EURGBP right now and not worry about the other $11.25.
Since USDCHF has already handed me a loss, I might as well conduct another experiment. My daily charts indicate that AUDJPY broke ultimate statistical support when it dropped below 73.76. Now that the five-minute chart is evidencing signs that the pair might me about to hook north, I'm curious to see if it remains above 73.60 for the next three-and-a-half hours.
Since I do not trust the way the market is behaving right now, I'm going to go ahead and pocket my $8.75 form EURGBP right now and not worry about the other $11.25.
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AUDJPY went from in-the-money to out-of-the-money in the last five minutes!
I've decided to go the OANDA route. First of all, I have no losing trades in my Tickmill demo account, but not so with NADEX. Also, I'm giving a lot more attention to trading than I was before (but not to my traditional brokerage account), even though I'm doing other things at the same time, so I should be able to return to day trading regardless and make at least $5 to $10 daily easily. Also, I have yet to focus on my traditional brokerage account using the enhanced charts I've configured since beginning this last round of experimentation with binary options (since Christmas?). If I can make money trading via Binary dot com and Nadex, doing so going the traditional route should be a snap. If I'm adding in supplemental deposits on top of that, I will build up my OANDA account to a decent size for trading soon enough. Slow and steady...that's the ticket...forget these Nadex time decay and whatnot issues that, from my perspective, makes trading via Nadex just insane.
USDCHF is finally back up above 0.9700. I need for it to stay there for three more hours. I also need for EURGBP to remain below 0.8460 for seven more hours.
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Monday Night / January 27, 2020
It's 10 PM PST and the markets are beginning to assume structures with trade-friendly alignments.
At 73.73 AUDJPY has reached a key resistance level. So be prepared to enter a short position when you get the go ahead signal, with 73.62 as a conservative take-profit target and 73.50 as a more ambitious choice.
At 71.41 NZDJPY has reached a key resistance level. So be prepared to enter a short position when you get the go ahead signal, with 71.29 as a conservative take-profit target and 71.18 as a more ambitious choice.
Use the more ambitious options if the pairs seem inclined to hold on to their bearish day-to-day sentiment/bias, but if they begin to evidence signs of reversing north, be satisfied with the more conservative targets.
It's 10 PM PST and the markets are beginning to assume structures with trade-friendly alignments.
At 73.73 AUDJPY has reached a key resistance level. So be prepared to enter a short position when you get the go ahead signal, with 73.62 as a conservative take-profit target and 73.50 as a more ambitious choice.
At 71.41 NZDJPY has reached a key resistance level. So be prepared to enter a short position when you get the go ahead signal, with 71.29 as a conservative take-profit target and 71.18 as a more ambitious choice.
Use the more ambitious options if the pairs seem inclined to hold on to their bearish day-to-day sentiment/bias, but if they begin to evidence signs of reversing north, be satisfied with the more conservative targets.
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