South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West

expiated said:
EURGBP has been range bound for a month or longer and, if this is going to continue, presently has more room below than above. (I calculate significant statistical resistance as being located somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.8821.)
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EURGBP has been range bound for a month or longer and, if this is going to continue, presently has more room below than above. I anticipated significant resistance somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.8821, so I wasn’t surprised when the rate failed to climb higher than that. Now that it looks to be falling, I’ve decided to enter a short position.

EURGBPDaily.png
 
Bullish Pairs:

AUDJPY has been slightly bullish for the past three days, but has gone virtually nowhere. With such ambivalence, I am not inclined to trade the pair at this time.

EURGBP has been bullish for about five days now.

NZDJPY has been bullish for about five or six days, yet it is still just about where it was on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The same thing that was said of NZDJPY can almost be said of NZDUSD.

USDCAD turned bullish on Thursday after a wild swing north on Wednesday.

USDCHF turned bullish on Wednesday.

USDJPY turned slightly bullish on Wednesday. This pair gave me a little bit of a payoff on Friday, after which I reentered another long position.


Bearish Pairs:

AUDUSD turned slightly bearish on Friday, but I would want to see signs of follow-through before entering a short position.

CADJPY turned slightly bearish on Friday, but generally speaking, should probably be considered more or less neutral overall, providing no clear signs as to whether it will resume the southbound trajectory witnessed from September 5th to September 16th, or reverse direction and head north.

As of Friday's close, EURAUD was almost perfectly structured for entering a short position (as soon as the proper numbers give the go ahead).

What was said of EURAUD can also be said of EURJPY.

EURUSD turned bearish on Wednesday.

GBPJPY is bearish, but without a lot of momentum.

It could be argued at GBPUSD has been bearish for five days now, but it has only been during the last three days that ALL my lines have confirmed this.
 
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NOTES TO SELF:

At 149.06, GBPJPY is residing in a neighborhood where it was turned back on May 18th, July 17th, September 21st, September 26th, and October 8th, so be very cautious about continuing to enter long positions at this point.

NZDUSD has broken ranks with the southward march it began on April 13th. Nonetheless, it is unclear how long it can continue the extremely sharp climb it has evidenced over the last six days.

NZDJPY was rejected at or near 72.25 on August 15th, September 10th, October 10th, and October 26th, so perhaps this is the beginning of a wholesale reversal to the north. Nonetheless, how long it will continue this extremely sharp nine-day ascent without a significant pullback is unclear. Be cautious if it continues to form short candlesticks like the one it appears to be forming so far today.

UADCAD has looked indecisive all through August, September, October, and November, so it is probably not worth trading.

At the moment USDCHF’s daily chart is suggesting that it is attempting to establish a new southbound trajectory. For the time being however, the 30-minute chart looks relatively neutral.

USDJPY looks to be extremely determined to continue marching northward, so for the time being at least, be very vigilant about looking for the slightest opportunity to enter a long position.
 
FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER 11, 2018​

AUDJPY is definitely bearish from an intraday standpoint, and to be honest, I’m simply waiting to see if it can begin pulling the day-to-day trendline southward. If it does, there is plenty of room below for racking up profits based on the structure of the daily chart.

AUDUSD is in the same situation as AUDJPY (the only caveat being that the slope of the global bias is now slightly positive).

With respect to CADJPY, the day-to-day trend has already switched to a bearish trajectory.

EURGBP’s global bias is still bearish, but the pair might be coming off a significant level of support at 0.8690 with lots of room for racking up pips above, even if bearish overall.

Besides, the pair has been rising since the beginning of 2016 and has been more-or-less range bound all this year. So again, given its present structure there is a lot more room to rise than to fall—not to mention that the day-to-day trend just turned bullish!

EURJPY’s day-to-day trend probably just turned bearish.

EURUSD is bearish again, but I would rather enter a short position coming off a southbound reversal located higher within the typical day range. Besides, there is not much room for it to fall structurally unless the pair is going to start establishing some new lows. (It rejected falling much lower than this in the middle of August, and hasn’t visited lower levels since back in July 2017.) Moreover, it is presently in a former region of SUPER resistance, from January 2015 to October 2016, which should NOW make it a region of super support!

GBPJPY is in the same situation as the Aussie pairs.

Ditto for GBPUSD. In fact, this pair’s day-to-day trendline might already be rolling over.

NZDJPY is officially still bullish, so the next move would be entering a long position when the intraday trend turns north again.

Ditto for NZDUSD.

I’ll need to wait to see if USDCAD is really turning north, or if it will ultimately remain range bound, as it has been for the last two weeks.

USDCHF has been trading between 0.9945 and 1.0108 for several days now.

USDJPY has been bullish ever since March 30th.
 
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expiated said:
USDJPY has been bullish ever since March 30th.
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I am already long this pair in my demo account, but I shouldn't be. (The image below was taken from my OANDA live trading account.)

ScreenHunter_2531 Nov. 10 11.45.jpg


I entered upon the formation of the circled (blue) candlestick, but I should have waited for a candlestick that not only closed above the blue trendline, but that also opened above it as well. An even more conservative move would have been to wait for the blue moving average to begin hooking upward.

(By the way, I added the blue moving average after the market closed on Friday to replace the standard moving averages I had been relying on previously. The one pictured above is a proprietary indicator, one I already coded several months ago, but that I am now generating with a more complete data sample to maximize the smoothness of the line.)

P.S. If I were scalping the market, I would buy every time the proprietary black and red short-term moving averages adopted a positive slope and sell whenever they evidenced a negative slope, but I would be using five- and one-minute charts to get a fix on my exact entry and exit points to time them perfectly with the intraday swings in the short-term trend.
 
expiated said:
EURGBP’s global bias is still bearish, but the pair might be coming off a significant level of support at 0.8690 with lots of room for racking up pips above, even if bearish overall.
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Indeed, EURGBP appears to be rejecting the 0.8690 level with a vengeance. But given the way it gapped up at the open, I'm hoping to see it come down to at least 0.8744 so that the stats/numbers justify entering a long position.
 

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NOTES TO SELF:

Wait on the signal to buy…
USDCAD
and possibly even EURGBP

…or for the signal to sell…
CADJPY
and possibly even GBPJPY or GBPUSD
 
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