CLR and the rest of the equities listed above did not do all that hot today, but neither did the overall market, so I will need a few more days to assess how the related screen performs over time.
South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West
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CLR and the rest of the equities listed above did not do all that hot today, but neither did the overall market, so I will need a few more days to assess how the related screen performs over time.
I don't know why I was thinking (yesterday) that today would be Friday. Since it's Thursday, I was able to go ahead and make my first "real" trade (since 2014) this morning rather than wait until next week. If EURJPY stops me out, I will simply enter another long position later on given the fact that I fully expect this pair to eventually head north.
CGI is the second stock (PII was the first) out of this handful of equities (CLR, CGI, PII, LLL, and KSS) to show me a rather significant gain within a couple of days of having been added to my list of picks. I will be interested to see over the next couple of weeks if this becomes a pattern, or if it was just a fluke.
EURJPY did indeed stop me out, so after receiving my next signal to pull the trigger, I set my stop loss at 133.24 and my take-profit target at 133.85.
This is the third time my system has told me it should be profitable to buy EURJPY, so obviously the first two times my signals lied to me. Each time however I have resorted to a more conservative “style” of interpreting price action, so hopefully this third trade is taking place after price’s having established a genuine floor to this dip:
EURJPY bit me three times this morning when I tried to enter long positions, so I am attempting to learn my lessons from that experience. Based on what I believe I was taught, there are currently no foreign currency pairs that are “ripe” for the picking.
However, USDCAD is close...just not close enough. And yet, I need to go out in a couple of minutes and do not wish to miss out on this opportunity, so I am going to go ahead and execute the trade, even though I acknowledged that I am doing it a bit prematurely.
Perhaps I will be granted favor and the pair will not stop me out before what might be an inevitable fall. But the opening of the Asian session is not that far off, and if the pair gets another shot in the arm, that might not bode well for me. Still…I’m taking my chances.
Given the performance of PII and CGI, I decided to continue screening for stocks in the same manner for at least a little while longer to see if similar results continue to occur. My picks from today were AN and CRI.
I felt I was “seeing” the market relatively clearly before, but I’ve made a couple of adjustments that I think improved on what I already found to be an acceptable level of accuracy and validity.
That said, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP, and EURUSD all remain bearish to one degree or another.
GBUSD looks like it is trying to transition from a bearish to bullish sentiment.
AUDUSD reversed to the north today, allowing me to collect just a handful of pips profit. I would have gone for a lot more, but I have no desire to remain in any positions over the weekend.
USDCAD stopped me out this morning, due to the fact that it appears to be trying to switch from a bullish to bearish bias. USDCHF looks like it is trying to do the same thing, and USDJPY has already succeeded in doing so. (I would have short this pair at 113.94 were we not going into the weekend.)
That said, AUDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP, and EURUSD all remain bearish to one degree or another.
GBUSD looks like it is trying to transition from a bearish to bullish sentiment.
AUDUSD reversed to the north today, allowing me to collect just a handful of pips profit. I would have gone for a lot more, but I have no desire to remain in any positions over the weekend.
USDCAD stopped me out this morning, due to the fact that it appears to be trying to switch from a bullish to bearish bias. USDCHF looks like it is trying to do the same thing, and USDJPY has already succeeded in doing so. (I would have short this pair at 113.94 were we not going into the weekend.)
I imagine it’s possible that at some point everything will settle down to such a degree that I will only be willing to enter positions under ideal circumstances. This would be when the intraday trend is reversing its trajectory to rejoin the direction of the overall trend.
However, the first situation does not yet exist and the second is not currently available, so I have opted for the next best thing which was to buy AUDUSD (even though its overall trend is bearish) for a number of reasons:
First of all, I am currently using two 1-hour chart setups, and one of them suggests the pair is bouncing off the lower limits of its typical day-to-day price range.
Both charts have confirmed that the intraday trend is now bullish, and the one that has an intermediate trend line evidences an effort being made by price to cross north of it at this very moment.
The other hourly chart concurs with my five-minute chart in asserting that the shorter-term price structure presently allows sufficient room for price to climb higher—but the clincher is my four-hour chart.
I have never before put a four-hour setup in continual use, but that might have just changed. Last night (or maybe it was this morning) I reconstituted the higher-time-frame chart in light of Thursday’s and Friday’s insights, and ended up with something that looks like it has real potential.
In particular, it has a “bias line” beyond which price almost always continues to climb, or to fall, once candlesticks begin to form on the other side.
Given that AUDUSD crossed above this line during the last 4 hours of last week’s trading, I’m hoping price will continue to climb at least high enough to hit my take-profit target of 0.7704, even though this is in opposition to the overall trend.
However, the first situation does not yet exist and the second is not currently available, so I have opted for the next best thing which was to buy AUDUSD (even though its overall trend is bearish) for a number of reasons:
First of all, I am currently using two 1-hour chart setups, and one of them suggests the pair is bouncing off the lower limits of its typical day-to-day price range.
Both charts have confirmed that the intraday trend is now bullish, and the one that has an intermediate trend line evidences an effort being made by price to cross north of it at this very moment.
The other hourly chart concurs with my five-minute chart in asserting that the shorter-term price structure presently allows sufficient room for price to climb higher—but the clincher is my four-hour chart.
I have never before put a four-hour setup in continual use, but that might have just changed. Last night (or maybe it was this morning) I reconstituted the higher-time-frame chart in light of Thursday’s and Friday’s insights, and ended up with something that looks like it has real potential.
In particular, it has a “bias line” beyond which price almost always continues to climb, or to fall, once candlesticks begin to form on the other side.
Given that AUDUSD crossed above this line during the last 4 hours of last week’s trading, I’m hoping price will continue to climb at least high enough to hit my take-profit target of 0.7704, even though this is in opposition to the overall trend.
AUDJPY was formerly climbing overall from month-to-month, but has completely lost that momentum and has transitioned to a bearish sentiment sometime within the last five days. The intraday trend is currently northbound, so enter a short position as soon as it turns south.
AUDUSD is in the exact same situation as AUDJPY except that it is already pointed south, having made the adjustment yesterday.
GBPJPY has been overall bullish from a yearly point of view ever since November of 2016. It has been in a northbound trajectory for the last nine days and remains so, but has reached the upper regions of its overall price range and can therefore be expected to experience increasing pressure attempting to pull it back down. Accordingly, now might not be such a great time to enter a long position.
GBPUSD has had an overall bullish sentiment from a month-to-month perspective ever since March of this year. Its day-to-day bearish bias turned bullish during the last 24-hour trading cycle, but it too has reached the upper regions of its overall price range and can therefore be expected to experience a significant amount of pressure trying to pull it back down. So once again, now is not the time to enter a long position.
EURJPY has had an overall bullish sentiment from a month-to-month perspective ever since March of this year. Its day-to-day bearish bias turned bullish during the last 24-hour trading cycle. It looks like it is on its way north again after dropping on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week, which means it is setting up to be sold as soon as it turns south to rejoin the overall trend.
EURGBP is technically still bullish from an overall yearly perspective, but has completely lost all momentum and might have actually turned bearish today or yesterday. It became day-to-day bearish last week and very, very much remains in that condition.
EURUSD has been straight up bullish ever since March of last year, but as of last week, this is no longer the case, even though, technically speaking, the bullish sentiment remains. Moreover, the intermittent tumbling that began in September might be taking a break with price starting the week with an attempted rebound. Though the overall day-to-day trend is technically bearish and falling on a weekly basis, price has been engaged in an overall intraday/day-to-day climb from the start of this week. This all sounds kind of confusing, so the bottom line is, sell as soon as the pair looks like it might be falling again at the intraday level.
USDCAD’s overall tumble that began in May appears to have officially ended as of two weeks ago. The pair is a strong buy.
USDCHF’s overall tumble that began in March appears to have officially ended back in September. Every pullback is a buying opportunity...
USDJPY has been essentially neutral almost this entire year, so even though the intraday trend is currently bullish, the higher price climbs, the more reason there is to sell as soon as price begins to fall again.
AUDUSD is in the exact same situation as AUDJPY except that it is already pointed south, having made the adjustment yesterday.
GBPJPY has been overall bullish from a yearly point of view ever since November of 2016. It has been in a northbound trajectory for the last nine days and remains so, but has reached the upper regions of its overall price range and can therefore be expected to experience increasing pressure attempting to pull it back down. Accordingly, now might not be such a great time to enter a long position.
GBPUSD has had an overall bullish sentiment from a month-to-month perspective ever since March of this year. Its day-to-day bearish bias turned bullish during the last 24-hour trading cycle, but it too has reached the upper regions of its overall price range and can therefore be expected to experience a significant amount of pressure trying to pull it back down. So once again, now is not the time to enter a long position.
EURJPY has had an overall bullish sentiment from a month-to-month perspective ever since March of this year. Its day-to-day bearish bias turned bullish during the last 24-hour trading cycle. It looks like it is on its way north again after dropping on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of last week, which means it is setting up to be sold as soon as it turns south to rejoin the overall trend.
EURGBP is technically still bullish from an overall yearly perspective, but has completely lost all momentum and might have actually turned bearish today or yesterday. It became day-to-day bearish last week and very, very much remains in that condition.
EURUSD has been straight up bullish ever since March of last year, but as of last week, this is no longer the case, even though, technically speaking, the bullish sentiment remains. Moreover, the intermittent tumbling that began in September might be taking a break with price starting the week with an attempted rebound. Though the overall day-to-day trend is technically bearish and falling on a weekly basis, price has been engaged in an overall intraday/day-to-day climb from the start of this week. This all sounds kind of confusing, so the bottom line is, sell as soon as the pair looks like it might be falling again at the intraday level.
USDCAD’s overall tumble that began in May appears to have officially ended as of two weeks ago. The pair is a strong buy.
USDCHF’s overall tumble that began in March appears to have officially ended back in September. Every pullback is a buying opportunity...
USDJPY has been essentially neutral almost this entire year, so even though the intraday trend is currently bullish, the higher price climbs, the more reason there is to sell as soon as price begins to fall again.
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