Source for Consensus Economic Forecasts

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Begbie00

I'm reading what seems like a very well written FX trading book "The Art of Currency Trading", by Donnelly. He keeps hammering home the importance of understanding what's priced in so that we can understand if certain fundamental numbers are actually surprises.

I've been seeing consensus information whenever fundamental indicators are published. For example, https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls, where July 2020 Non-Farm Payrolls added 1.76 million jobs, which "beat market expectations of 1.6 million".

I've seen that same 1.6 million expectation number a few different places. Where does that 1.6 million come from? Is there a way to get an estimate of the consensus ahead of the report so I can understand whether the report itself is a surprise, quickly, when it comes out (other than relying on Bloomberg/Refinitiv)?

Just using Non-Farm Payrolls as an example, here. Any guidance on the other EURUSD fundamentals (GDP, PCE, Claims, indices, etc.) appreciated as well.
 
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Consensus is generated by surveying leading economists.

The problem with using funnymental data is knowing what the reaction will be - whether the release was as expected, better or worse. And don't even bother listening to the spinmeisters after.
 
ondafringe said:
If I understood you correctly, this site might be helpful:

https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar
More...

So this is a good example of why I'm confused. If I look at the "Forecast" for non-farm payroll for July 2020 using this site, the forecast is 1.530 million. That makes the actual result of 1.763 million 15% higher than the forecast (versus the 10% against the 1.600 million I've seen quoted on Bloomberg, etc.) So how do you get comfortable that those forecasts are reasonable representations of what's priced in?
 
I don't use or trade the forecasts, I just want to know what economic data is scheduled for release every morning to avoid getting into a pre-market trade within an hour of a red-level data release.

As to your question: You will probably have to do some research to determine who you feel has the best economists/forecasting models (based on past accuracy) and follow them.

There is a blurb about the NFP forecast at the bottom of this page that might shed some light, but other than that...

https://www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomics/economic-indicator/nfp
 
Investing.coms economic calendar is pretty usefull, you can sort by country and have the actual data release almost instantly when its due.
 
David's faith said:
Investing.coms economic calendar is pretty usefull, you can sort by country and have the actual data release almost instantly when its due.
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This is a pretty good one, thank you. Easily extractable data back to ~2008. It also seems to be powering Bloomberg's website economic calendar, too.
 
If you’re serious about trading, get meta stock Xenith. It’s a retail version of Refinitiv Eikon and is 99/mo. They have consensus data for economic indicators.
 
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