Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

[dbphoenix]

Quote from llIHeroic:

What about one minute later at 3471? SL is already up, and it's extremely steep. Trade can't get much easier to manage than that.

You know it's a RET by then I hope. Price is a point or two away but that doesn't invalidate it. It's not like we're trying to scalp.

However, that occurs at the pre-open swing low, not the best place to short. If one shorted anyway, he would in fact be scalping since he'd be out at BE at best.

 

[llIHeroic]

Quote from dbphoenix:

However, that occurs at the pre-open swing low, not the best place to short. If one shorted anyway, he would in fact be scalping since he'd be out at BE at best.

Ah, I see it now. I didn't look close enough to think about how that would look in real-time if one took the short there. Good call.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from llIHeroic:

Ah, I see it now. I didn't look close enough to think about how that would look in real-time if one took the short there. Good call.

One has to be careful in chart review to compare what was done and not done according to whatever one's plan is rather than engage in fancy over what might have been done now that one knows the outcome. The former is learning through review and analysis. The latter is little more than couldawouldashoulda.

One could, of course, make the CWS into the sort of learning opportunity that might alter the trading plan, but the principle here would be If One Misses The First Entry, Take The Second. However, given the number of qualifiers to this, it has little practical use. Better to take the entry one is supposed to take in the first place.

 

[llIHeroic]

Quote from dbphoenix:

One has to be careful in chart review to compare what was done and not done according to whatever one's plan is rather than engage in fancy over what might have been done now that one knows the outcome. The former is learning through review and analysis. The latter is little more than couldawouldashoulda.

One could, of course, make the CWS into the sort of learning opportunity that might alter the trading plan, but the principle here would be If One Misses The First Entry, Take The Second. However, given the number of qualifiers to this, it has little practical use. Better to take the entry one is supposed to take in the first place.

I'm glad that we were able to have the opportunity to touch on this topic. I was initially influenced by yesterday's action, where if one missed an entry, jumping in just about anywhere on one of the down-waves anyway would have resulted in a successful trade.

As I think more on the practicality of that approach though, I can see now that it is really a temporary patch job to a larger problem at best, if that.

In hindsight, I suppose my advice to enter later rather than be left watching what one can now see as a valid movement isn't very helpful. Unless something is built into one's plan, doing such will really just form bad habits. It is especially more dangerous if these deviations end up being rewarded intermittently when they occur.

I view one of the biggest attributors to the progress I've been able to make since the beginning of this journey as the fact that I've been fortunate enough to have all of my mistakes punished fairly severely by the market** when they occur. Makes learning a lot easier than if they are reinforced.

Edit:

**Or pointed out blatantly by those more experienced than myself, I might add.

 

[dbphoenix]

The market teaches the unprepared trader what will lose the most money. Which is why those who trade based on CWS rather than a trading plan will inevitably fail.

"If only I'd hung on", for example, teaches one to hang on to losers.

 

[niko]

Quote from llIHeroic:

What about one minute later at 3471? SL is already up, and it's extremely steep. Trade can't get much easier to manage than that.

You know it's a RET by then I hope. Price is a point or two away but that doesn't invalidate it. It's not like we're trying to scalp.

I am trying to avoid late entries, even if i classified that as a RET as Db noted it was, I wouldn´t trade that trend at 71.

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Keep in mind that the 1m bar is nothing more than an illustration of price movement that I use because it's commonly available. If one is actually watching price move, he can see that price is retracing its steps at that point. Whether it prints as a retracement using the bar interval one has chosen is irrelevant. And I remind those who read this stuff that one isn't trading the retracement but the exit from the retracement. No exit, no trade.

And if one is posting here, he would also note that an exit from that retracement would be a coincident drop below the last two swing lows, which would not escape the attention of other traders.

I know, but you know I have psyc issues by now. On my 12 steps.

 

[Gringo]

Niko,

Just go to the mechanical entry and exit. SL/DL break, Ret and price goes in opposite direction and you get in. It's time to make it mechanical as these psychological issues have been going on for some time. You see price well now. We've seen it on your charts. You just disengage at times and start to think too much.

How about 'hire yourself to do a job' and just start following the lines again. Just for two weeks do nothing else, and just follow them till 1100 (better trends have been occurring more often after 1100 it seems). This is your year end final lap. Till the end of the year just follow the lines.. Come January we'll re-asses. This S/R business has gone out of hands very quickly.

I can tell you from my personal experience that reading about S/R didn't do much for my decision making. DL/SL are the antidote that can bring you closer to reading price at a much faster rate. Use it; embrace it. Life's too short and a few months ought to be enough to get that going.

No one here is going to blame you if you keep getting stopped out after following the lines. You'll be surprised when you tally your net gains/losses at the end of this exercise.

The wise once had this conversation:

Dory: Hey there, Mr. Grumpy Gills. When life gets you down do you wanna know what you've gotta do?
Marlin: No I don't wanna know.
Dory: Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming, swimming, swimming. What do we do? We swim, swim.

Gringo

 

[niko]

Quote from Gringo:

Niko,

Just go to the mechanical entry and exit. SL/DL break, Ret and price goes in opposite direction and you get in. It's time to make it mechanical as these psychological issues have been going on for some time. You see price well now. We've seen it on your charts. You just disengage at times and start to think too much.

How about 'hire yourself to do a job' and just start following the lines again. Just for two weeks do nothing else, and just follow them till 1100 (better trends have been occurring more often after 1100 it seems). This is your year end final lap. Till the end of the year just follow the lines.. Come January we'll re-asses. This S/R business has gone out of hands very quickly.

I can tell you from my personal experience that reading about S/R didn't do much for my decision making. DL/SL are the antidote that can bring you closer to reading price at a much faster rate. Use it; embrace it. Life's too short and a few months ought to be enough to get that going.

No one here is going to blame you if you keep getting stopped out after following the lines. You'll be surprised when you tally your net gains/losses at the end of this exercise.

The wise once had this conversation:

Dory: Hey there, Mr. Grumpy Gills. When life gets you down do you wanna know what you've gotta do?
Marlin: No I don't wanna know.
Dory: Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming, swimming, swimming. What do we do? We swim, swim.

Gringo

Hehehe, great advice as always. You and Db have been fundamental in the process and for that I cant thank you enough. I will listen to you as I always do and go back to "hire myself". Anyway, after all this time I am not in that of a hurry.

 

[slugar]

Thursday