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Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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Quote from llIHeroic:
Compiled a few of your posts to make them easier to discuss.
We can clearly see that the open quickly smashed through the pre-open climb upwards. However, it hit a wall around 81, which is kind of the middle of nowhere, at least in the bigger scheme of things. We could say it found support at the same level that a lot of the overnight congestion occurred at. The first thing to note, imo, is that it rebounded immediately without getting sucked in. Seems like an indication of a retest of the pre-open high at the very least, perhaps even the overnight high.
I remember skimming over your post briefly and disagreeing that 81-87 is a chop area. There is a clear failure of sellers to travel lower, and price heads up almost in a straight line after that. There aren't even any inside bars on the 1m. 9:34 briefly touches the 50% mark of the tiny movement so far, and continues upward. You note again that there are overlapping bars, but I don't think this is too much of a concern, considering they are continuing to move in a single direction with little fluctuation. Perhaps a little slower than we might like, but I didn't perceive much ambiguity.
If you move out to a slightly larger time-frame maybe the up-move from there will look less like chop to you. There is a clear entry at 8:41 using the line method if you're seeing a failed BO attempt of the few day's channel at 89 instead of a return to chop, and a second chance at 8:43 as well. SL gets up a little before 9:45 I think.
SL eventually gets broken like you said, and I see that you got the long off the retest of the pre-market low after having opted not to take the initial rejection. Price can't even make it back to opening high, signaling some weakness, but stalls slightly before dropping.
Unfortunately this is where I was feeling a little uncertain of the price action especially since it looked to be holding at 83 for a period of time, well above the 50% mark of the climb, and right in the middle of the opening scuttle too, exited the short on a lack of weakness rather than a sign of strength, which is a common mistake of mine.
I wasn't watching at the time, but the failure to continue past 86 at ~9:45 was also a pretty obvious short signal.
Thank you for your reply.
I am in the middle of being unable to tell chop from trend and seeing chop all the time, trying to balance that.
So far and looking in hindsight Still cant find a valid reason to short at 9:40 EST, then the break of the line was a clear sign to look for longs but I did the opposite, because I was thinking about the "entry that I did not take at 9:43, but that was clearly not the way to go.
Regarding moving to a larger interval, I am really into the 1 min and will be Until I can get something useful out of it, but thanks for the advice.
Regarding the short at 10:44 EST, I thought about it given the TC spotted by G, but it was out of my plan so just watched what price did.
Quote from llIHeroic:
I remember skimming over your post briefly and disagreeing that 81-87 is a chop area. There is a clear failure of sellers to travel lower, and price heads up almost in a straight line after that. There aren't even any inside bars on the 1m. 9:34 briefly touches the 50% mark of the tiny movement so far, and continues upward. You note again that there are overlapping bars, but I don't think this is too much of a concern, considering they are continuing to move in a single direction with little fluctuation. Perhaps a little slower than we might like, but I didn't perceive much ambiguity.
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If you move out to a slightly larger time-frame maybe the up-move from there will look less like chop to you. There is a clear entry at 8:41 using the line method if you're seeing a failed BO attempt of the few day's channel at 89 instead of a return to chop, and a second chance at 8:43 as well. SL gets up a little before 9:45 I think.
I agree with your call on both the long and the short. The failure to break to the downside carried a lot of information. Then there was a clear retest of S at 0934 ET. This further strengthened the odds for a long. I did go long but there was no need to wait for a BO of R. My long could have been a little lower based on the previous two pieces of information.
Same thing for the short at 0941 ET. Failure to BO followed by a retest. Could have initiated my short earlier.
Sorry for the confusion about times in my post. I accidentally labeled some as CST without thinking. Thank you for your comments niko and game. It really helps to sharpen the understanding having peers to discuss these principles with. I got my first long in at 81. I want to keep training to be quicker on the draw. I'm trying to get closer and closer to the swing points at S and R, but there's a fine line between getting in early with the intention to exit on mistakes and fake-outs and over-trading, at least for me.
Also, maybe we're having a data-provider difference niko, the ~9:40 short seems clear as day on my feed, same as on investing.com
See attached.
Also, maybe we're having a data-provider difference niko, the ~9:40 short seems clear as day on my feed, same as on investing.com
See attached.
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Quote from llIHeroic:
...Also, maybe we're having a data-provider difference niko, the ~9:40 short seems clear as day on my feed, same as on investing.com...
This has something to do with the platform clock, that RET was marked at 9:42 in ninja, therefore an entry would have happened at 9:43. Given that I was hooked on Chop, I did not take it, but it seems valid if one is not afraid of being chopped in as I was.
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