Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .
- Thread starter dbphoenix
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Keep in mind, though, that we needn't necessarily stop there. We could just continue on down as in 2001 and 2008. But whether we do or not will become clear as we near those territories. There's certainly no need to exit a nice short just because one is at the bottom of a trend channel.
Those of you who are playing with this may not have noticed the importance of the "halfway" level in this morning's trading as no one has brought it up. Granted it's sometimes difficult to remember all this stuff without writing it down, but (a) there aren't all that many elements to remember and (b) who's going to know? This halfway business is something to write down.
Trades took over a half hour to establish an opening range, unless one counts that pitiful 4pt back-and-forth. But when traders abruptly pushed below that level at 1004/5, then rallied above that congestion at 1007/8, they established an "opening range" that one could do something with. The halfway level of this range was 3384, which is where price hesitated on its way back down. There was in turn a brief retracement at 1011.
Later, there was a herky-jerky sputter-and-stop from 1020 to 1055 that drove those who were trying to plot demand/supply lines crazy. I only want to point out here that the halfway level for the downmove from 3388 to 3370 was 3379, which is where buyers gave it up. The demand line was broken 2m after that, with a retracement a minute thereafter.
Whether any trades were taken or not is another matter. The purpose here is to point out a feature of the price action/movement/behavior/whatever landscape so that it may perhaps be more likely recognized the next time.
Trades took over a half hour to establish an opening range, unless one counts that pitiful 4pt back-and-forth. But when traders abruptly pushed below that level at 1004/5, then rallied above that congestion at 1007/8, they established an "opening range" that one could do something with. The halfway level of this range was 3384, which is where price hesitated on its way back down. There was in turn a brief retracement at 1011.
Later, there was a herky-jerky sputter-and-stop from 1020 to 1055 that drove those who were trying to plot demand/supply lines crazy. I only want to point out here that the halfway level for the downmove from 3388 to 3370 was 3379, which is where buyers gave it up. The demand line was broken 2m after that, with a retracement a minute thereafter.
Whether any trades were taken or not is another matter. The purpose here is to point out a feature of the price action/movement/behavior/whatever landscape so that it may perhaps be more likely recognized the next time.
DB:
As mentioned in one of your posts, I did not read all posts but I read the first posts in your threads more than once. I like your posts. The immediate impression I had with the lines was that 3400 would be a top on Nasdaq100. What is the most recent chart of the lines? Do you use the lines to anticipate end of a trend or you say it is done when the line is broken.
As mentioned in one of your posts, I did not read all posts but I read the first posts in your threads more than once. I like your posts. The immediate impression I had with the lines was that 3400 would be a top on Nasdaq100. What is the most recent chart of the lines? Do you use the lines to anticipate end of a trend or you say it is done when the line is broken.
Since you've addressed this to DB, it is totally up to him to answer you, but your question clearly demonstrates a lack of effort on your part to review the material. Even if I answered your question, I fail to see how that would help you if you're not going to do the hard work of studying and testing the material.
We've been using the same lines for months, they have been drawn several times and they haven't changed. We do not think the trend with it's upper boundary intersecting 3400 is ending anytime soon, and there has been no indication whatsoever of that possibility.
Trends are a continual oscillation of traders making transactions around a perceived range of value over time. Clarify how you believe trend lines are broken, and perhaps you then you can re-phrase a better question which can receive an accurate answer, or maybe you will end up answering it yourself in the process.
The most recent chart of the long-term trend is July, though I've reposted it several times, most recently in post #1 of the "Bride" thread. The upper limit shows where price will be if and when it gets there, which, according to auction market theory, it eventually will. And has. That doesn't mean the trend is ended. The NQ may become overbought, or it may return to the lower limit. I have no idea which.
If you're interested, I suggest you do a search using my name and "channel". If that's not enough, do a search using "trend". If that's not enough either, then I'm afraid you'll just have to read the threads. If you skip the trolls, that'll knock off about a third.
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